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FreeGameFindings

/FreeGameFindings is based around finding free games all over the place! Be it Steam, Origin, Uplay, Epic, GOG, Xbox 360/One, Playstation 3/4/Vita, or Wii U/3DS/Switch, we will find every last free Game and DLC we can, and get it to you!
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submitted by Patriciakuag to u/Patriciakuag [link] [comments]

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submitted by Patriciakuag to u/Patriciakuag [link] [comments]

Live Betting on the games in a tennis set is the fastest way to make money

I've turned $0.17 into $138 in 30 minutes today just messing around. As long as you know the rules to tennis I found you don't really even need to do research on the players, it's really about putting your bet in at the right moment. I found it's best to bet on the server when the score is 30-15. And don't bet in the first game of the set. You can flip your money extremely fast doing this as the games go by in like 5 minutes.
submitted by 88gWN to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

If you owed money to the mafia and they said the only way for you to live was to bet your money on either one of Michael Porter Jr or Markelle Fultz eventually becoming an all-star caliber player who would you choose?

Markelle has played 33 games in the last two seasons(NBA).
MPJ has played 3 games in the last two seasons. (College and NBA).
submitted by threezuswalksonce to NBA_Draft [link] [comments]

I bet they saved a ton of money by outsourcing, and it only cost 346 lives. Way to go Boeing.

I bet they saved a ton of money by outsourcing, and it only cost 346 lives. Way to go Boeing. submitted by Nikolte to LateStageCapitalism [link] [comments]

To all GME holders: Shut up and listen

This text was originally posted in Mauerstrassenwetten by u/knutolee. I thought his message was so powerful that I asked him for permission to translate, post (can share chat with Mod if required or check directly with him) and fuck his wife (ok didn’t ask for permission) after and he agreed to all most of this wholeheartedly – like a true Autist. I am trying to catch the message – so don’t expect a word by word translation as you can never catch the greatness of the text in it’s entirety and I got to translate it in a way that even a US degenerate can follow it.
As usual no financial advice, I more or less just copied the text because I liked the text and I like the share. In general I have likely lost more than I won and the stock market is a mystery in itself to me. So make your own due dilligence and don’t trust financial advice of others (the argument for that you can read to a certain extent below).
Autists, Degenerates, Idiocracy of the World – let me get this straight!
In the coming days I don’t wanna see all this whining and bitching on this sub and espescially in the daily GME threads anymore. On every fucking corner of this sub I smell doubt, you read messages the likes of „this is over“, „we missed the squeeze“, „I am going to loose it all“, „entered at 320$ - I am doomed“. What the fuck is wrong with you retards, did you fucking wanker your wifes boyfriend dick all night and lost your mind over the effort to do so? I think I got to get this accross the Buddy Stephens way to get you down to fucking earth and get your attitude right.
1) You come to a sub called wallstreetbets and yolo your hard earned money in $GME
You realize what you are doing here - you true fuck - dont you? This is a community of full blown first class true tits up degenerates which take pleasure in posting losses accumulating into the millions every fucking month and you are putting your money into a BET – yes my dear it is written out in the name of this very fucking sub Wallstreet-B-E-T-S!!! – and follow DD posted by people with names like „SHOW_ME_YOUR_ANAL_TITS“? You realize this is not a fucking Disney ferry „One-Wish-comes-true“ show and we see all day long gain porn and loss porn is something which doesn’t exist in this world? This is a band of true autists which occupied an absolute niche when it comes down to trading (and we even don’t trade stocks normally!). This is the place where one wants to enjoy the sado-masochistic part of the retarded capitalistic system we are living in. Yes we have some (maybe a lot) DD diamonds in this sub which by the way are now impossible to find because you degenerate fucks spam the entire system to the moon but no sane long-term investor would consider to invest into any of these investments – this is about „get rich or die trying!“. This is not investing!
2) Yeah but I saw Reddit in the news and all that stuff about GME and it was going through the roof becasue there is going to be short squeeze and on top of it the hedge funds fucked up, hihihi
If this entire thing was a safe bet why exactly would not the fucking entire world jump on this train? (and even you might get this image from all this „Saudi Arabia calling, China calling, Africa calling posts – but please they invest into BABA, Aramco or I don’t know what’s the hot shit in Lagos stock exchange right now – could be though the next big thing – got to see if I can find a DD on this). So why is this not happening? Because it is a fucking BET – the stock market is a fucking Casino and the major difference between investing and us is that they are always just bet on black or red, while we always go for the magical zero. It is totally unclear whether all of us going to show up at Miami Beach with our Porsche Cayenne or Tesla Model S and hit on the girls (or boys) on the beach! The reasons are layed out to you every fucking day with yet another quality DD that most of us simply dont understand! And yes our chances to already sit on the fucking moon slurping our Pinha Coladas would be certainly higher if everything was going the way we believe the system should be working but even the last person who joined this sub by now should realize – you are potentially fucking with the system itself (by the way something this sub never intentionally wanted and you shouldn’t do if you like the system).
3) Hey but when is the squeeze of the squoze going to happen? 😓
So there is this story going through the media and from Florida to Colorado everybody remotely degenerate is yoloing money into GME. It’s a fucking global movement now (or not – could be also the same 50.000 degenerates cheering up themselves the entire time which would much better fit this place) and according to the DD we just need to have 🙌💎and the shorts a bleeding their panties, their balls feel squozen (and not in a good way) and they are completely in defensive mode. What do you think what people who are responsible for Multi-billion $$$ HF are going to do? How do you think you become a person who is responsible for such an operation? Do you think these guys have served as altar boys or girls in church (no offense if so)? What is wrong with you? Seriously! Do you think if they get some headwind they are going to say: Oh boy – we got defeated and going to realize a multi-fucking-billion-to-the-moon loss? OF COURSE FUCKING NOT! THEY WILL GET EVERY FUCKING BAZOOKA, TANK, ROCKET or INTER-STELLAR DEFENSE SYSTEM IN PLACE TO BRING THIS TO AN END! Influence the market participants (speculation), Short-Laddar attacks (I to this very day haven’t understand the concept or how this works – speculation), demotivational tactics (speculation) and to whomever picks it up – desinformation (well not quite speculation but it could also be that media is just retarded as fuck to get the most simple facts straight). So what would you do with a potential group of 5mn small-size investors – shall we do a collective effort to think about it? Ah fuck it! It is to fucking obvious – you would dry this out through time, divide their interests and drive away their attention. Because let’s be fucking honest – most of you entered this thinking you would hold this wonderful stock for a couple of days (and to be honest in this respect the community how it existed 10 days ago was much more true to itself - no whining just sayin)! Gotcha! Who can tell me who fucked each other two weeks ago in People magazin or on Twitter? Nobody – I even don’t remember shit about this very forum before GME (ok I remember u/variation-separate but that is another story). And all their tactics are completely understandable because there is a fucking huge amount of tendies to be made and they are not that different from us (my fear).
4) That does not give you the fucking right to whine and bitch all the time in the daily threads (and it is not happening already its going to be) and fucking ruin the party
Deal with it – we just got to wait how this thing plays out. That’s it. If we are right – this will play out positively in one or another way (huge tendies or SEC investigating). Let them continue shorting the stock or whatever. If you believe you want to buy more stock – do your DD and do it. When this got picked up a long time ago by people they thought – hmmmm makes sense – I am going to get me one of these tickets to the moon. There was if at all a very little interest to squoze the balls of any HF and it was certainly not the main motivation of this sub. I said it above: Get rich or die tryin! Since last Thursday the whole thing became political and it looks like rules were changed in our disfavour and yeah we can not go back in time but we got to deal with it and the circumstances. [Left out this part as it promotes holding and buying which I don’t want to in the sense that everybody needs to make his own fucking decision but I am going to fucking hold] but WE NEED TO REGAIN OUR POSITIVE SPIRIT which was an essential part of this sub and GME for most part in January (and of course in general before) – no matter how fucked up things looked (individually as there is not such a thing as collective alignment to buy options or stocks on this forum). We will see how the numbers are play out and who provided the adequate picture. In our reality GME is going to the moon and the 🚀 is fueled. Period. We are just prevented from starting because of the windy conditions out there.
So please – no post without 🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🚀🚀🚀 and if you want to fukn leave the party – leave – but let us continue this party, because we are going to the fkn moon. This is the way and I fkn love GME and if this means I need to hold onto this beauty for another 25 years I am going to do it.
P.S.: One thing dear to my heart - in the past there has been huge donations made by this community to people living with autism. As we use their names every fkn day I would really like to see some of your degenerates not to forget about this cause because we owe them and as much as I like the billboards I’d rather see every $$$ go into charities rather then telling the world about us – I think everybody out there knows by now that we exist and that we have 🙌💎
Edit: Nobody asked for it but 35@231,69 and thanks for the awards which should go to u/knutolee - so you can simply award his original post referenced. More importantly he expressed to me that he is very happy with the translation which is almost as important as the message itself.
Edit 2: Please pay attention to AMA Marc Cuban - https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lawubt/hey_everyone_its_mark_cuban_jumping_on_to_do_an/ - there is I think some quite enlighting answers in a very easy to understand language.
Edit 3: Bought 5@103
Edit 4: Heading for dinner. Crazy times. Will check later and decide whether to buy more tickets or not. But maybe good advice for some others to make a break. Chillax :)
Edit 5: Read that RH has opened up GME again. For whatever it's worth 🚀
Edit 6: Thanks again for all the Awards and stuff. I can only reload in the morning. Was fun and maybe I am going to translate more in the future - if mods would consider to give me a copy cat 😺 flair it would be the icing on the cake.
Edit 7: Obligatory salute to the one and only DFV and his 💎 balls. This guy will go all the way to the 🚀 with us.
submitted by SimplyPwned to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What $GME has taught me in 36 hours of day trading

Jumped on the $GME bandwagon on Friday, 4 @ ~316. My 36 hours of day trading has already taught me that no matter how this plays out, I will never YOLO on a bubble ever again.
The principle seemed straightforward: hedge funds got lazy/greedy, over-shorted their positions, bet against a company that wasn't actually going under, and some astute monkies on reddit caught them and triggered a short squeeze. Even as someone who knows almost nothing about the stock market, the basic premise makes sense. But the devil's in the details, and hype is blinding.
First red flag was when I realized DeepFuckingValue did not bet on the short squeeze, he bet on undervalued stock price over a year ago. He has also trimmed his position such that no matter what happens in the squeeze, he walks away with 8 figures. So the people screaming "if he's still in, I'm still in!" and "look at those brass balls, if he can lose $5MM in a day then I can hold" are really living up to the dumb ape meme. He didn't lose $5MM yesterday, he lost $5MM in *unrealized gains*, there is a *huge* difference.
Second red flag was a common sense idea that hedge funds won't go down without a fight, and they have literally billions of dollars and decades of experience. You don't get that without learning how to game the system in complex, subtle ways. So even if they are still heavily shorted (which they might not even be anymore), and even if somehow WSB is holding some kind of meaningful leverage over them, that doesn't rule out the very real possibility they have a dozen ways out of this that people like me have no idea about.
But even in the off chance that somehow this turns around, and $GME does go "to the moon," that doesn't change the fact that it's bad long-term strategy to bet on bubbles and jump on bandwagons. They almost certainly fail, and if they don't, they only serve to inflate egos that will fall even harder on the next gamble. I'm still holding my shares but I don't expect to see my ~$1200 ever again. In the off chance I break even or see a profit here, I will count it as dumb luck and use it as seed money to learn how to invest in real long term gains.
Edit: holy shit RIP my inbox. No way I can read all that.
Want to clarify a few things. Not financial advice.
My position: I knew I was late to the party. I wanted to gamble. I knew what I was doing, and (mostly) why I did it. Hindsight showed me it was more based on emotion than I wanted to admit, but still, I'm not surprised by the outcome so far, and I'm totally OK with taking the L and calling it a lesson learned. I don't blame DFV, WSB, or anyone for my choices. I own them, even proudly, because I wanted to step out and take a calculated risk vs. sit on the sidelines out of fear of loss. I'm holding because I already bought my tickets to this ride, want to see this thing play out, and I'm fine with gambling the final $300 on the outside chance things turn around.
Your positions: brothers, sisters, nonbinary siblings: you are not your portfolio. whether up or down, your value is not based on how big or small an imaginary number is. you are a human being on the bleeding edge of 3.5 BILLION years of evolution, you have more actual success in your past and potential success in your future than you'll ever know. 12 years ago I was a penniless alcoholic literally stealing change from my grandpa to get loaded on 211 Steel Reserve. I hit my bottom, joined AA, and now I'm a network engineer, wife, kids, the whole lot. Anything is possible if you don't give up on yourself. But I know it's not that easy, we all need borrowed self-esteem before we can see the real value inside. So if this $GME gamble hit you hard, please reach out to someone. don't give up. Hell, this bubble isn't even over, it might even turn around! But either way, don't give up.
Edit2:
wow, never expected this to go this far. wrote it on my way out the door as a way to cope with the situation. read a ton of replies, probably missed most of them. thanks for all the love and hate and everything inbetween! A few more points:
Edit3 2/3/21:
Full disclosure, I closed my position this morning at a ~$900 realized loss.
My gut says the squeeze happened, short interest isn't what I thought it was on Friday, and the stock will return to actual value soon.
submitted by austindcc to stocks [link] [comments]

GME EndGame part 3: A new opponent enters the ring

GME EndGame part 3: A new opponent enters the ring
Wow - what a week. This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true.

Previous Important Posts

  • EndGame Part 1 (DTC Infinity) covered the short positions, the float, and potential snowball impacts of increasing prices, and argued that part of the reason that shorts haven’t closed was that it was pretty much impossible for shorts to close
  • EndGame Part 2 covered Cohen, fair market cap analysis, and potential investors, in which I talked about the amazing mid-to-long term potential for GME.
  • After the Citron tweet, I shared this fan fiction on what looked like blatant market manipulation by shorts on the day of the tweet, and offered some education on strengthening your position. This one got buried and is worth reading.

What’s happened thus far

Why did GME go up on Friday?

The story here is more complex than paid media articles would like you to believe. GME has been driven up by 3 different forces:
  • Organic buying
    • There is a mixture of growing positive sentiment in the investor world (not just WSB) about GME’s future
    • There’s been a lot of good due diligence shared not just on WSB but even outside (for example, see gmedd.com)
    • The Citron Backfire
      • Shorts were on the ropes and kept looking for hail mary’s. They went to Citron and coordinated a dump to try to bring the price down.
      • However, this backfired. Citron is so disliked in the industry that new wealth poured into GME in the face of Andrew Left’s pleas. Even when Benzinga brought Andrew Left on air, minutes after he left they bought shares live on their show.
      • The next day, our very on u/Uberkikz11 was on Benzinga and more shares were bought.
    • Larger investors piling in
  • Gamma squeeze
    • Once the organic buying started, we rolled into a gamma squeeze. Many people written about the gamma squeeze so I won’t repeat, see this post for an example.
  • Ultra low liquidity - In EndGame part 1, I talked about how the actual actively traded shares are much lower than the reported float, and share availability has been reducing driven by lots of diamond hands, not just among smaller guys like us but the larger folks too.
  • I believe there were some short covers on Friday, but Ortex was still estimating 71M shares short at the eod.
However, not many people have talked about why it went down

Why did GME come down?

Here’s where things got interesting for me, and something I think happened again today (Monday) when GME climbed up over 100% but then had a rapid reversal, closing 20% above yesterday but closing below open.
So Friday looked like a slam dunk - gamma squeeze, no shorts available to short, puts were getting exceedingly expensive as a short tactic. What happened?
This is my fan fiction, based on what I saw.
I believe market-makers took a non-neutral stance and began actively shorting the stock after the second halt.
Market-makers are responsible for maintaining liquidity and functioning in the stock market, but they also have abilities that others don’t - for example they are legally allowed to naked short for “liquidity purposes”. They also have the ability to halt trading.
There were two halts in the day on Friday: First, when GME was up 69% (heh heh), and then a few minutes later when it kept climbing after the first halt was relaxed. Note that at the time of the first halt, the bid-ask spread was $10 on the underlying a huge signal that there just were not enough shares to buy.
However, after the second halt, something strange happened. Whereas a few minutes prior, there were no sellers willing to sell their shares below $75, within 15 minutes after the halt there were sellers at 70, 65, 60, and 56. Where did these sellers come from?

Incredible momentum reversal on Friday 1/22 to push the price not too far above the 60c strike price.
My speculation? This was a coordinated naked short ladder attack. In this type of attack, short seller A sells to short seller B, who then turns around to short seller A at a lower price, etc. and with a very small amount of capital you can wreck the momentum of a stock and make people think that others are running for the exits.
Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60.
All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher.

A repeat on Monday

The short ladder attack repeated on Monday.
GME opened strong above $90, and quickly climbed to a high above $155 before it was halted, immediately after the halt, a short ladder attack again drove the price down

Dejavu - Incredible Momentum Reversal after trading halts.
Both days, there were rapid and significant reversals in momentum.
Now, I kept wondering - why would MM’s take the side of the shorts? What’s in it for them? One theory was that they were not adequately hedged, with the low liquidity of the stock meaning that the price was moving up too fast for them to acquire the shares they needed to.
But then the news hit today:

A new opponent enters the ring:


https://preview.redd.it/8htb0scgpkd61.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=228a8a84e592ea4642a61c5e07e07ae344ac8f2c
That’s right, the same Citadel listed by the NYSE as one of their designated market makers is now invested in Melvin’s hedge fund and has a financial interest in the direction of GME’s share price.
Hey media - you want a manipulation story? You’re missing the big one.

Now what?

Shorts have pulled new dirty tactics each time they’ve been pushed to the edge. Paid media attacks, Citron’s fluff tweet + coordinated shorting, and now they’ve got the actual people who get all the order flow on their side.
On the other hand, GME is still up over 20% and now trading at $88.00 after hours, which is well above the previous day’s high.

https://preview.redd.it/rr5qet4ipkd61.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d28bf446a714906712503726f5903a681d5368
What this tells me is that GME’s true price is still being suppressed. They are using every tactic possible, even changing the bid-ask spread rules on options to specifically target retail’s buying of options.
We’re now playing the game against the folks who write the rules of the game.
Some shorts may have covered today - with prices below $60 at one point they had some great opportunities to. However, there is no way all of the shorts who need to exit covered today.
The short position still lost 20% from yesterday. They’ve got more fingers in the dam, but it’s definitely cracking. Also, every call option purchased prior to 1/25 is ITM and profitable, while every put option purchased prior to 1/25 is OTM.
And, for some reason, the SEC still doesn’t want to enforce the threshold securities list for GME, where it’s now been on for more than 30 days in a highly covered “short squeeze”.

https://preview.redd.it/rbrf6khjpkd61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e4f432ff02dbf475a03cc68c54a5a0f5f0de429

Margin impacts:

Note that at this point, most brokers have increased margin on GME. This means that people that are long or short on margin will need to put up capital to hold their positions.
This also means puts will get more expensive as people who sell puts will have to maintain 100% of the notional in their accounts to secure the put, so MMs will have fewer retail sellers of puts to absorb the demand.
That means it’s not a bad idea to sell puts to acquire shares if you’re aiming for the long-term and not the squeeze, but keep in mind you’ll need the exact same capital as if you’d bought the shares, so it’s up to you on this.
For shorts, a margin increase while the price is moving against you (even with retracements) is no good.

My speculation

  • Cohen and the GME board have been strangely silent this entire run. It’s possible they can’t say anything at all during the pre-earnings quiet period, but I’m sure they can see what’s happening.
  • MMs will continue to play dirty, but at the same time they will need to continue to need to buy GME shares to delta hedge 1/29 and later ITM options as we get closer to expiry.

Things to be careful about

As you can see, this is no easy win. I've been in GME for a few months but I've seen almost every trick in the book. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
  • Be careful about swapping ITM calls for OTM calls: it can be tempting to trade-up your options for higher return, but be mindful of the delta impact. You may actually be driving the sale of shares by MMs when you don’t mean to. For example, if you sell a .5 delta call for 2 .2 delta calls, that’s net reduction of 10 shares that MMs have to hold long as leverage.
  • Be careful about being short any calls this week: Not only do you limit your upside (which is dumb in the prospect of a squeeze), you could end up in a nightmare scenario. A call that ends OTM on Friday could end up ITM after hours if you didn’t sell it, and you may get assigned while the underlying continues to go up.
  • There are a few other dirty tactics shorts can play. I’m not specifically going to share them here because I don’t want to give the ideas circulation, but
    • Choose your own limit sells based on personal sell points. Don’t copy others and don’t try to be memey. Make your own decisions.
    • Stop sharing your positions publicly. I know this is anti-wsb, and I think sharing them is great for this community, but in the case of GME it’s an attack vector for you.
  • Be careful of holding weeklies until expiration. Remember the multiple trading halts? What if trading gets halted on Friday at 2pm and doesn’t resume for the rest of the day? All your 1/29 calls would expire worthless. Depending on your broker and your cash positions, maybe even your ITM ones. Roll (or sell, if you’re taking profits) your weeklies well before expiration.
  • Be careful about buying on margin. Brokers are rapidly increasing margins. If you bought on margin with 2:1 leverage, and the stock went up 100%, you’d be in margin call even without a margin change. If the broker moves margin against you, you’ll get to margin call faster.
  • Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I’ve been in GME long enough to know that just when you think going up is a sure thing (remember last Monday with the short sale restriction?), you can be surprised by a new trick. If you bet it all on weeklies all at once, you may not be able to recover from being wrong on the timing. Consider longer expiry or spreading your purchases out. I’ve held through multiple 30-40% drawdowns in the underlying; and held through a 50% drawdown today, so you need to be ready for the volatility.
  • Watch out for stop loss hunts. It’s common practice for shorts to hunt for stop losses for cheap shares. If you’ve set a stop loss, be really sure about it.
This is not financial advice; do your own DD. I’m holding over $1M in shares and calls.

1/26 Update

Hi everyone. Sorry for not posting or replying to comments. I was auto-banned from WSB when this post was auto-deleted by the auto-mod. Thanks to u/zjz to reversing the auto-deletion of the post though as it looked like it was helpful to the community.
Hope you all made a ton of money today!
Quick Notes:
  • At an after-hours price of $209 a share, every call option, for every expiry, for every strike price is in-the-money. This is the third time this has happened for GME recently. Amazing. What this means now is that market makers will need to buy a lot of shares to hedge for the calls expiring this week. Heed my above warnings.
  • At this price, shorts will start to get liquidated. Combining the 400% weekly gain with the margin requirements increasing across the board, brokers will force close short positions. Starting maybe with the small guys, but it will cause a ripple effect. Things could move fast. Some funds may get additional bailouts this week to hold out.
  • You need to decide your own exit. Only you know how much $ you're playing with, how much you're willing to lose, how important the $ is to you, etc. Minimize you're regret, don't maximize your profits. If you are thinking about taking profits this week, spread out your sells so you don't kick yourself over timing things poorly. Personally, I think we are in unprecedented territory and that there's no way all of the shorts have exited already, so we're not done. I could be wrong. See EndGame part 1.
  • Close spreads. With every call ITM, you are at the risk of early-assignment. If you don't watch closely, you could be hit with sky-high hard-to-borrow fees and get killed on what you thought was a profitable trade.
  • Watch for ripple effects. This is already happening. When funds get liquidated, they have to buy back all their other shorts (see AMC, BBBY) and sell their longs (look at BABA after-hours). Want to play GME without playing GME? Maybe throw a little $ at BBBY. You do you.
  • In EndGame Part 2, I talked about potential investors, and how the higher price is gonna attract the bigger $. Today we saw Chamath, Winklevoss, and others. And then Elon tweeted and simultaneously stimulated the buying frenzy and scared the crap out of shorts. I'm just gonna copy what I said about this potentiality
    • Elon: (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
  1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀


submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

We need to talk about NOK

We need to talk about NOK

Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense.
I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days.
And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind.
I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change.
One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone!
Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf
Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend.
What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't.
NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price.
Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk.
Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em!
Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01
Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors.
BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock
Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY
You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger?

Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A.
FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me.
I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do.
NOK PLAY:
Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part.
1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head.
2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends.
3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
  1. The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
  2. Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS

Value Part (crazy part in Q&A):
The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble.
Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/
Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t
Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27
They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers?
Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too.
So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back.
Q&A
Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short
A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to?
Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards
A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company.
Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards
A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER.

https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5
That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price.
Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially".
But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up.
So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands.
Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it.
They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen?
Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards
A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself.
Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps.
Q: Why is NOK not rocketing?
A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady.
The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April.
SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible.
Q: How do we know it’s working?
A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how.
This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up?
What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor.

Q: Where will this max out and when?
A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it.
Set your targets to $3310, that should do it.
Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy?
A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it.
Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK.
A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money.

Part 2: (29 Jan)
First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
  1. I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
  2. It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
  3. The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
  4. When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
  5. Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
  6. When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it.
Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK.
NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us.
OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this.
What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with.
But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
  1. NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
  2. The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
  3. NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN.
UNBREAKABLE 3310!
ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan):
I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so.
I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks.
But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late.
Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world.
3516.16% of average trading volume.
Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze.
But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them.
Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us.
What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct).
But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work?
Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares.
Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets.
And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them.
So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME).
Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit.
Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph.
You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why?
What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year?
Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that?
But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China?
US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world.
Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great?
Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now.
Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered.
The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up.
So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works.
But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change?
So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS.
TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

submitted by Mullernuller to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A Small Reminder of Some of the Risks Involved

There is a prevailing mis-understanding among people fresh to the market that you can buy and sell as much as you want at the "market price." This is false. You are buying and selling from real people or algorithms that believe they can scalp your order. The idealized scenario is that GME rallies, Melvin covers, and everyone at reddit gets out at the top. This represents a misunderstanding of market mechanics. Melvin will cover before we truly know it, and the crash will happen as quick as the rally.
So with recent events, you must ask yourself:

Who is Your Counterparty?

Nothing is a sure bet. How confident are you that your counterparty is who you think it is? Thousands of redditors & new traders beyond have been buying stocks fully confident that Melvin Capital hasn't exited their trade. This is also supported by some analysis provided by two different firms, although their estimates differ some amount. Confounded in this is the interpretation of the data: Does this include market makers and dealers that are short stock but covered with calls or options deltas? Is their information fully accurate in an event the likes of which has never happened? It's tough to know for sure.

Know Everyone's Hand

Your guess on how much they've covered and when they covered has a massive effect on how you perceive the value of this trade. Buying if you think Melvin has $10b notional to cover is a much better bet than if they only have $2b to cover. You also have to consider how much notional the rest of the market has bought in anticipation of a squeeze. The difference between the two represents your effective edge.
Remember, we don't actually know Melvin's current position. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. We only know the hand they're showing us via media. Has their clearing firm taken over? Has a much bigger collection of firms absorbed the position? Have they been buying since Monday? Have they covered and have new funds entered the space at a much better level?
You are fighting Goliath at a poker table in the city of Gath. The pot is worth $25 billion dollars. Ken Griffin has never lost. Melvin's prime brokers Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche are not used to losing (well, Deutsche is). They will do whatever it takes to take the pot from you and leave you holding the bag. They will not blink twice because there is a lot of fucking money on the line.

Know What Can Go Wrong

Nobody could have guessed everything that happened this week. Prepare yourself for the unexpected. Your brokerage will undoubtedly close out your position at the worst possible time. The stock could be halted for days. You could be assigned on ITM options. Your stock could get delisted. Your stock may get diluted.

Only Spend What You're Willing to Lose

This one is self explanatory. Your investment could go to zero. Even if you think you make money on every trade, if your bet size is 100%, the long term value of your portfolio is zero.

Don't Take Out Loans on Emotional Capital

If you are new, you really don't know the gut-wrenching, stomach-turning feeling of seeing the possibility of your net liquidity hitting zero or negative. It fucking sucks. You just know the highs. You're buying along the speculative frenzy and frantic rallies, wrapped in anti-billionaire & pro-underdog themes. It may even feel good to think that a guy who cut his teeth at a firm notorious for an insider trading scandal is getting his comeuppance. We love the feeling. If you are fully invested financially & emotionally, you are completely overleveraged and will pay the price. Make feeling good your goal, and set limits that you can stomach.
There are several feel-good stories of people making life-changing money to pay off their student loans or their family members' surgeries. Please think twice about this, and only spend what you can afford to lose. If placing a bet makes the difference between your pet living or dying, you may have a gambling problem. These were success stories because they got in at a much better level and could have had a much sadder ending.
Secondly, don't take it personal. There are people on the other side of your trades, your brokerage support line, the subreddit, the media. They are all playing their own hand to the best of their knowledge. It's easy to blame a broker, yell at their support desk, hate-tweet at a company, or even rage-text that guy you know who develops APIs at ETrade. A lot of people across the industry are rooting for you. Fuck, even Ted Cruz and AOC are rooting for you, because this transcends politics. If you're mad at Melvin Capital or Ken Griffin or the guys who crashed the economy in 2008, keep it that way. They will try and misdirect your anger in every single direction: brokerages, the media, and reddit. If your enemies are a few guys at the top holding a $25b short position and moving levers, keep it that way.
Thirdly, if you don't want to be a human being for the sake of the person on the other side, be a human being for your wallet's sake. You make better financial decisions in the absence of emotions.
submitted by CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Open letter to the brokers, just close the short positions.

The shorts will go bankrupt and you are next in line.
This is a game of chicken where reality tips greatly in our favor.
  1. It costs absolutely nothing for us longs to hold onto our positions. Guess who has to pay to hold onto their positions?
  2. Shorts can only try to shake us but the more they pressure us, the more our hands get encrusted in diamonds. Shorts can keep trying tricks but we have our own whales to see through them, meaning every dip is a discount and eventually, we will shake off all paper hands.
  3. This collective will attain diamond hands. It is a matter of when not if. You have people who have nothing left to lose, betting everything they have on a chance to change their lives. You have people who are here just to make a point. You have degenerate gamblers who flip the finger to risk management. You have people who are just here for entertainment. These people are willing to see their money drop to 0 and this crowd is going international.
The only way out of this situation is to unwind the short interest and better now than later. If the shorts go bankrupt, as a broker, you are on the hook. Better close those short positions while the losses are limited to the shorts. Maybe you're enjoying the interest from loaning our shares out but the goal is to bust the shorts and we don't mind you being collateral damage (especially those specific few of you, you know who you are).
Positions 50 GME @ 300
Disclosure, 150 of my previous 200 shares belonged to friends and family. I sold at 425 and re-entered at 300 using a different broker. I'm selling cash secured puts to enlarge my position.
submitted by FishyPower to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The community doesn’t understand game development - A very long post from a game designer

I’ve been playing Destiny for quite some time and I’ve enjoyed the community around it a lot, but the one thing that frustrates me the most about Destiny is how little the community actually knows about game development. It’s driving me crazy, so I wrote this whole thing down. I’m a game designeproducer myself, I’ve never worked on a project as massive as Destiny (not many people ever do), but I have worked on several gaming projects, some of them big in large companies, some of them small gaming apps. I know enough to explain the basics here, but I’m definitely not the ultimate authority on videogames and I’m not representing Bungie whatsoever, everything here is only from my experience. My goal here is to give you some useful info and calm my mind about this.
The Destiny community is incredibly vocal, especially this sub, which is generally a good thing, but the lack of understanding really damages not only the enjoyment of the community members but also the game itself IMO. I’ll explain some of the basics I think any hardcore fan should know here with an example and then I’ll outline some specific problems.
How Games Are Made
A videogame pipeline can be simplified into this flow: Demand from the top/the market -> top management decision -> design and prototyping -> development and feedbacks -> in house testing -> public testing -> marketing and publishing -> data collecting and analysis -> feedback implementation. It’s a circle that applies to everything from the big picture like the main campaign, to the smallest details like colors of shaders or proofreading of even the smallest posts. Every decision made in this system, even the tiniest ones, has to be debated, supported by data and expertise, approved in multiple places based on the priority, and checked multiple times after it’s implemented.
Game developers, especially in a powerhouse like Bungie, are very skilled, talented, experienced, and passionate people who always do their best to navigate that flow to satisfy the demands with a quality product delivered on time. I can’t stress this enough, developers (including QA testers, designers, artists, marketing, publishing, the whole team) are pretty much always incredibly hard-working people with a love for video games, because otherwise, they would never stay in this scummy business. They’re underpaid, overworked, and most likely overqualified for what they have to do. Some of them know almost everything there is to know about their field and they’re always improving as well.
Because video games, especially gargantuan living games with real-time action combat like Destiny, are insanely complicated, you need sometimes hundreds of experts to put them together. The pipeline needs to be perfectly planned, flexible so you can adapt to problems, and also easy enough to implement so you can deliver the product on time. All of these factors result in a tight-rope walk that never ends.
Now it’s time for an example. Let’s say during Season of the Worthy you get an assignment to create a catalyst for Thorn that would make it more popular in PVE, but doesn’t make it overpowered in PVP. Seems simple enough, right? There are dozens of posts about this topic on this subreddit, how hard can it be. The answer is, very, very hard.
You start working on your designs. You analyze all other exotic catalysts and hand cannon perks in the game - how they were made, their philosophy, psychological effects, and how they influence gameplay, you discuss everything in your team. When you create your first version, your design lead tells your whole team that hand cannons are getting a range buff and Thorn is now a 140 RPM and you have to adjust your design. After that, your priorities get shifted to helping with Beyond Light and the DSC weapons so it’s finished on time, so you put Thorn on hold. You don’t want to waste time though, so you give the art team an assignment to create the catalyst icon.
After two months of work on Beyond Light, you come back to Thorn, but now you basically have to start over because the future meta has changed so much. You create new designs and this time they’re approved by management, so you move onto prototyping. Developers are way too busy debugging and QA testing Beyond Light, so they have no time for Thorn and that task gets put into their To-Do list. You have no choice but to move onto your other tasks and start working on weapons for seasons 13 and 14.
When development starts finally working on Thorn, they find an exploit in your design that would allow it to two tap in PVP, you have to rework it again and hope they’ll have time to implement it this time. They don’t and the Thorn catalyst now officially misses its deadline and is pushed from Beyond Light. The marketing team doesn’t hear about it though, so they publish the icon you had made four months ago, leaking the catalyst coming out. This is of course your fault, but these things happen during all the chaos and there was almost nothing you could have done.
When you finally push this task through and it’s checked and approved dozens of times in different places (weapon design team, design lead, writing, sandbox team, development, QA, studio director, etc.) you have to make sure it’s published correctly in the right build, it has all necessary descriptions and marketing texts done and translated into all languages and the community managers know about it so they can get ready to collect data.
This single task took you a year to complete even when you did your best to do it fast and well and I left out about 90% of problems you would normally encounter. THIS is game development.
Community Attitude and Feedback
Now we get to why the uninformed community hurts the game so much. This sub would only see Thorn getting a catalyst and it would immediately be flooded with posts like “The catalyst sucks in PVE, buff pls”, “Bungo doesn’t care, the catalyst sucks for Warlocks” and a few “Why catalyst for Thorn, but not for Skyburner’s Oath”, completely missing the point of the catalyst and adding nothing to the discussion.
Bungie devs are way more informed, skilled, and experienced than us, the community. The only feedback they are interested in from us is quantitative - basically what we like and what we don’t like about the game. Any posts giving them ideas, elaborate reworks, or straight up negative outrage will accomplish nothing, because they already know everything about the game and discuss it daily in way more detail than we could ever imagine. The only qualitative feedback they should collect and measure is from content creators and the top 1% of the player base because those people actually know some aspects of the game Bungie doesn’t. I know it may sound like the hated “Bungo only listens to sweats and Youtubers”, but that’s kinda the point, they should be listening.
It doesn’t mean that our voices are ignored or not listened to. I would bet all of my money that all forums are constantly monitored and analyzed. The truth is, however, that the only valid opinion we can give that Bungie should consider is what aspects of the game we like, and what aspects we don’t. Anything beyond that we already tell them through data they collect from our play sessions.
As I wrote above, any change within this massive game is complicated and could take months or years to be implemented, so being upset we don’t have everything now is just useless. Bungie is hard at work to make good stuff, we should respect them more and not bring out the pitchforks every time a season slows down a bit and we can’t play for four hours a day every day for the whole year. There will always be problems in a live game and they are doing a fantastic job, I can’t even imagine how much work must go into it. So before you post about something in the future, take a moment to think about the process and figure out what exactly you can provide to the devs with your feedback, because otherwise, you’re fanning the flames on something that probably isn’t actually burning. It’s just taking its time as it should.
With all of the above said, it isn't the community's fault that we're not informed. The fault lies entirely with Bungie not educating people enough and this problem could be avoided.
Reasons Why Things Suck
I’ll close by giving my two cents on why the game isn’t perfect and never will be, just so you know where the community's frustrations should go.
  1. The biggest reason that influences everything - Bungie is a company owned by a group of shareholders that will always force the studio to grow and provide more profit. With every extra dollar, the value of the company grows and the board of directors gets richer and because of the super predatory capitalism we live in now, Bungie has to justify every single decision with a monetary value. It's not the fault of the devs, they don't make much money themselves.
  2. The game is massive and always online. I’m pretty confident that no other studio would be able to support Destiny for so long without the game completely crashing down. Technology always evolves and it’s almost impossible to keep a living game up to date, so some parts of the front end of the game will always suck because Bungie has to upkeep the back end we will never get to see.
  3. The project has been going on for a decade, which leads to people wanting to naturally move on. Replacing team members on a living game is very difficult, which leads to problems and delays.
  4. The community is not educated about the game enough, which is why I ended up writing this. The continuous cycle of negative outrage that comes from a lack of understanding damages the game because the devs are forced to deal with it without disclosing information. If people knew more, they could help Bungie, but no company that wants to make big profits will ever open up its communication because it would show just how many decisions are influenced by the search for profit.
That’s it, sorry for the length of this essay. I hope you learned something and let me know if you’d be interested in more stuff like this (takes on sunsetting, sandbox, etc.). I would like to give people more info so they don’t waste their precious time on stuff completely outside of their control and maybe educate people about the industry. I love the game and I hope you’ll appreciate it a bit more now.
Edit 1:
This post is not meant as a defense for the faults of the game or an excuse for bad decisions, it's meant as a resource to give you perspective and information. If you believe the game is not as good as it was promised to be or disagree with some design choices made, you are of course entitled to your own opinion, and there are quite a few things I myself absolutely hate in Destiny. I can't answer questions related to design on Destiny with confidence, because I don't work for Bungie and I won't speculate much on why certain decisions were made. I can give you my opinion on stuff like sunsetting based on my experience in another post, but ultimately it's only speculation with little benefit. All I will say is that there is always more stuff we don't know about the game than we do know and design should be judged in context.
When it comes to questions related to Bungie's scummy tactics when it comes to monetization and bad communication, I agree with you, as I said above. Money is the biggest factor of why Destiny suffers and the best way for us to do anything about that is to stop buying it. I know it's a cliche statement, but it's true.
And lastly, for the comments saying stuff like "shut up, Bungie sucks and you know it", please read what I said again and think about it. The devs most likely love the game just as much as you once did, if not much more.
Edit 2:
I'll add one thing that keeps popping up. It's clear that Destiny is a product developed for profit, so if your outlook is "I don't want to know about development, I'm just an unhappy consumer that didn't like this product", I agree as would most likely everybody that it's absolutely a valid stance, but that's not what my post was about. If that's how you see any product, you should tell the producer why you didn't like it if you care enough to do so and move on. The post is meant to inform people who don't want to move on from Destiny, especially those who continuously engage with the product from a place of understanding even if they don't have it, which wastes their time and does nothing for the product. If you don't like this game or any other game, it's absolutely OK and you should move on from playing it, complaining about things you don't want to understand won't help you achieve what you want and only makes the game worse. As I said above, the best way to show your disagreements is not to support the company and if you don't like Destiny, please stop playing it and take care of yourself. Your time is valuable, don't give it away to someone you don't agree with.
Edit 3
This will be the last edit on this post. I appreciate all the awards and great discussions happening below, but holy cow did this get a lot of vitriol. I expected a lot of negativity, but it still surprised me. It's partially my fault for trying to talk about so much with not enough room so I'm sure I made a few mistakes. I'll reply to a few things that I want to make clear and then leave this alone, it's way too long anyway.
If you see any malicious intent, attacks, arrogance, or "Bungie shilling" between the lines, I put none there, at least not on purpose. My goal was to inform, as I said right at the start, so if you see any other agenda, it's not there and my writing either wasn't clear enough, or you're looking for something that I didn't write. Take the post for what it is, a stranger on the internet telling you something you may not know from their experience. If you disagree with me, downvote the post and explain why, no need to insult anyone, you're once again wasting your precious time.
I didn't mention management as a problem on Destiny, because I don't know enough about it. Leadership is very often a problem on any collaborative projects but calling someone out without the necessary data is exactly what I warned about in my post, so I won't comment on it, but feel free to disagree with me. Maybe you know more about the subject than I do and I'll be happy to read your reply.
I never put myself up as an ultimate authority on the subject, all of this is just basics I thought hardcore fans should know and I communicated that. This post was already very long and I didn't have time, nor did I want to describe theory in detail, so insulting me over not explaining how scrum works in a post meant for people with no experience is not necessary. If you want to argue about production methodologies, my reasoning on examples given, and how healthy management looks like with me please feel free to message me and I'm sure we'll have a cool conversation, I'd love to hear about your experience from working in gaming.
And that's it, I hope you got something out of this. Have a great day and see you around.
submitted by Theseus17 to DestinyTheGame [link] [comments]

I want to talk about u/DeepFuckingValue

I have watched every minute of DeepFuckingValue's youtube channel Roaring Kitty.
When I found the channel I expected to find a total degenerate. I expected to see some tool sort of like u/WSBGod but with lucky real gains. I was super wrong.
What I found was an extremely smart, soft spoken, humble, and graceful individual.
He found true deep value in a stock and bet on it in a big way. Over the past several months he was welcoming people to challenge him. He was welcoming people to poke holes in his thesis. As GME grew and grew he meme-ed but never gloated.
This GME situation has now exploded into something that no one (not even DFV) could have foreseen. I can't imagine what is going on for him and his family right now.
He has been living in a rented house and now he is a multi-millionaire. People here see him as a deity. Some people here are demanding he speak. Hedge funds probably want to see him ridiculously prosecuted somehow for his DD posts. Some people here are demanding that he announce his next play. I have even seen some people here make serious suggestion that he get into politics.
I think everyone needs to have mad respect for this guy. With that respect we should all understand that what he decides he wants next for himself might not be what some of us envision.
The world is honestly his oyster right now and he could go in any direction. Maybe he doesnt want to be in the public eye and wants to be left alone. Maybe he wants to be the next Burry with his own Scion Capital. Maybe he just wants things to stay the same as possible and just do youtube videos from his likely soon to be not rented basement. Whatever his choice is this entire community and the world in general needs to respect it.
I also see people here writing "If he is holding. I am holding." This is fine but people need to understand that he likely will not tell us when he is selling (he shouldn't tell us for MANY reasons). In addition, we need to respect that he IS ALLOWED to sell if he decides to do so.
GME for many has become a venue to personally fuck the system down to your last dollar, but it may not be the same way for him. I personally am holding my position to the bitter end for that reason, but he may not. Others may not. DVF is at the core a true value investor. You will learn this if you watch his videos. Value investors typically do not buy and hold stocks forever. I am very interested to see how this ends for him. We all need to respect what one another does with their money.
From the early days of this forum there have been some major wins that were phony as fuck. Nothing about DFV is phony. He is completely genuine. He is the real Wall Street Bets God.
His name is u/DeepFuckingValue. Let's put respect on that name for what he has done and continue to respect it when he decides how to end it.
TLDR: In watching hours of DFV content there is no way that you cannot like this guy. He is very smart and very humble. We need to support him should he want privacy. We need to respect him should he exit his position.
submitted by k3eb22 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I am disturbed by the comments and PMs I got in response to a post I shared on r/wsb

I was a long time lurker and occasional commenter on wsb. I’ve always been a rather pragmatic investor who likes to mitigate risk. I suppose I just enjoyed living vicariously through others by seeing posts on the sub in its former state. Sometimes they’d lose big, sometimes they’d win big, and either way the memes were always funny. It always felt harmless because my impression was that people never wagered more than they were willing/able to lose.
I did decide to throw my hat in the ring these last 2 weeks during all the short squeeze craziness though. I bought a bunch of shares in both Blackberry and Nokia when they were low, and then sold at their (near) peaks and made about 5 grand in total. Pretty cool. At that point I was playing with house money so I figured hey, I’ll buy a couple GameStop shares and see if this thing can rocket higher. And it did! If I’d sold at 400-500 I would’ve made a few more bucks. But I kept holding, and obviously I lost most of my original investment. But overall I am far and away in the green on these short squeeze stocks so I’m not bothered at all.
And that brings me to the topic of my post. Yesterday afternoon I created and posted a meme/gif on wsb using a scene from goodfellas. The one from early in the movie where Henry gets pinched but “keeps his mouth shut”. Click on my profile if you want to see it.
This, along with a couple other gifs I made, were just me trying to post funny content in the sub that I felt was in the spirit of what wsb used to be. Self deprecating, a little chaotic, and fun. I guess I hoped this type of content would help course correct away from the hive-mind it was becoming.
But the comments and private messages I received in response to the goodfellas post in particular genuinely concern and sadden me.
“I‘ve never felt that I belong anywhere but I finally have a home here with you degenerates”
“My parents think I’m insane but I’m going to keep buying shares. Glad you guys understand me”
“I bet my tuition money on this stock but this gif made me feel better about everything I’ve lost”
“Guys, is the short squeeze over? I put in 5k today. How high will the price get”
Wsb feels like a cult now. And I’m not being hyperbolic. These are some deeply lonely, and VERY financially illiterate people who have jumped on a sinking ship and think it’s a rocket.
A couple months from now, we’re going to be reading about the billions that people collectively lost investing in GameStop and amc after the squeeze peaked. We’re going to hear about suicides, divorces, bankruptcies, and lives just generally derailed.
Between that and the info about the mods that continues to come out, the cult-like nature of wsb is only going to grow and expand. I honestly hope it gets shut down.
Edit: I deleted the gifs. They were funny, but doing more harm than good.
Edit: If anyone is interested in seeing my latest gif for the wsb folks - https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lctim7/time_to_wake_up/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
submitted by nicknaseef17 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I got an entry-level job and I’m fxcking pissed.

TL;DR The system worked for me and I'm tired of the job market being like this. Can anything be done on a grand scale or should I just network throughout my career to help individuals? Also, this is dramatic- sorry.
I graduated in December 2019. This summer, I got a job in marketing. I made 43k (21/hr) and usually only had to work 25-30 hours a week. It was awesome and a major step up from my previous job in allied health where I made 27k/year or 13/hr. I went above and beyond and even created a training document to teach coworkers how to edit HTML code because some days I’d be done after 2 hours. I have ADHD, an average IQ, and have a 2.6 GPA Psychology B.A..
The reason I’m fxcking pissed is because they lied. By "they" I mean the employer, but I also mean everyone in my society who told me that I need a bachelor's or a master's to do tasks in an office that I could’ve done as a freshman in high school. I swear to god a 14 year old who knows basic grammar could do this job EASILY. So why does it say bachelor’s degree required? Why does it say 1-2 years of experience when 2 weeks of training was all I needed to learn this job? It’s so fxcking easy that I literally have spent entire work days learning javascript because there were no more tasks to do.
There are so many people who can’t access jobs like these because they didn’t have the time, energy, or access to money (or people) that would allow them to get through this barrier. I’m not done either because every day I hear from people who have their psych degree or communications degree, heck even their STEM degree saying they can’t find any entry level jobs. So the people that hunkered down for 4 years are now considering more years of their lives, more time, and more energy to get a master’s degree for the chance of getting an entry level job.
So how tf did I get this entry level, marketing job? My friend handed my resume to the marketing manager and said “she’s a hard worker” and then after a 20 minute conversation about what TV shows I like (oh wait that was an interview with the CTO) and an interview with the marketing manager, I was hired on. I do not think I would be where I am now, halfway through my student loans and deciding which mutual funds to invest in, without my closest friend happening to work at a place that hires entry level employees. Most of the people at this company knew someone working there already. The coworkers that got in through traditional applying had multiple years of experience and were much older than me. It’s bullshit.
l got a lucky break in order to make a livable wage. If this didn’t happen, I would have gone into more debt for SLP school, and add myself to the pile of 25-year-olds still living with their parents, because I couldn’t figure out a better way to make more than $15 an hour with a psych degree. I recently accepted an offer making 15k more and I feel like I’m stepping on people who didn’t happen to have a “white-collar” friend to get their foot in the door. I bet this new job doesn’t really require a degree either, but how else can they parse the thousands of applications they get whenever they post a job? I plan to pay it forward whenever I can throughout my career. I can’t think of another way to help this system.
Edit: I love that this is a topic people are interested in. I especially value the critical comments because they alert me to aspects I might not have considered before. I want to make a final point that I've already made in the comments.
If there were more options to make a living wage then there wouldn't be this level of oversaturation. Can everyone agree on that?? The people that say "learn a trade" don't see that if all the new high school grads learn a trade then the wages of plumbers, electricians, welders, etc. will drop and the barriers to entry will rise. I assume the trades are next.
My surface level understanding is that no one wants their kids/students to be excluded from comfortable pay. So they say "finish highschool to get a good job." But it doesn't really work anymore if everyone finishes high school because there aren't enough good paying jobs. So they say finish college. Still not enough to go around. "Should've picked a STEM, should've learned to code."
This is the "industry treadmill" that I disike. You can disagree and say that not everyone deserves to afford a dignified life, but I haven't found one comment arguing that this industry treadmill doesn't exist out of 200 replies.
Will the market even things out or will this lead to your kids needing a PHD in order to afford a 2br house? (Im being dramatic again- notice a trend?) If not those, then what? Who knows. This trend(edit 2: mainly improvements/solutions to the trend) has levels of complexity that I don't understand yet. I plan to learn. If you are interested too, please do your own research. Don't let it end here. Feel free to comment or send me any info you come across even if it challenges my beliefs. Thanks!
submitted by muniehuny to jobs [link] [comments]

Shkreli on GME - 1/31

Gamestonk. Gamestop. GME. My thoughts are on Reddit, under my u/martinshkreli & subreddit martinshkreli. Those are authentic and discuss why GME is one of the most unprecedented events in market history. Here, I'm going to discuss the populist attitude that is creeping into this odd situation and add some thoughts on short-selling in general.
Let's cover my own unique angle on the concept of a 'short squeeze'. Most would define it as an erratic upward change in price driven by short-covering. I believe short-squeezes defined this way are usually a fictitious idee fixe that aggregates a number of discrete market behaviors and dynamics into a convenient and pithy moniker. The image of python-like buyer constricting some hapless speculator into a higher stock price is evocative but misleading. Many knew me as a short-selling specialist on Wall Street, focused on 'binary events' of biotech stocks. I think I've seen it all: I was once short more than 75% of a company's shares outstanding (I do not recommend this). I bought 75% of a company on the open market, etc.
Short-sellers are governed by the same market dynamics as longs. They get nervous when positions go against them and consider exiting. Like longs, they can double down if they wish. The only difference is that, of course, short positions grow when stocks rise. And they can rise infinitely, while long positions fall asymptotically to zero. But both get, theoretically and assuming no fundamental changes have occurred, more attractive as they move against the trader.
Short sellers have to pay borrow fees to longs (typically tiny, but sometimes massive). They have to locate stock to short, again usually easy, but sometimes difficult. Both are perilous when those rare adverse times arise. Why? Despite the possibility of a growing cost of renting stock, the ultimate fear of a short-seller is a "buy-in". It is nightmarish and has only happened to me once or twice, excluding options-related activity. A buy-in occurs when a broker decides to forcibly exit the short position on behalf of the trader because the broker and trader cannot secure the 'locate' which is supposed to underlie the short sale. The buy-in order is typically violently disruptive: a market order for the whole position near the closing hours of the market! The SEC published a list of stocks at risk of buy-in: the fail to deliver list.
My point is that a 'short squeeze' can only practically affect the trader for two reasons. The first is that the trader digs in, doubles down and doesn't exit as his position grows. That's bad trading, and will eventually blow the trader up. But, if the stock is a 'good short', that short will be replaced by more traders with stronger hands/a better entry price/smaller position. What's more is the average investor can't tell if this is happening! The second is the buy-in. I haven't heard GME shorts being bought in, but again, how would you know, other than the grapevine? My point is most of the disruptive, exciting trading here is simply long speculators banging away at the stock.
New longs are sometimes attracted to rising prices, speculating they'll increase further: that's called momentum. Those buyers are typically offset by the existing longs who are excited to exit at higher prices. But, if there is a large short position in the stock, a speculator may feel that those covering (buying to get out) short-sellers will provide additional fuel to the momentum. That's sometimes the case, but higher prices should lead to more supply from both long and short sellers. My feeling is the actions of large long holders probably have more influence on the stock price than shorts who dart in and out, and typically in smaller size. Remember that shorts who capitulate are often just replaced by new shorts who are attracted at the new lunar prices.
In essence, 'short squeezes' become a self-fulfilling prophecy as new long investors pile in trying to 'squeeze' this sometimes phantom of a short seller, and existing long investors may hold off selling for the same reason. With some Popperian skepticism you will easily see that the same dynamic can exist without the short boogeyman, or with a short boogeyman of any size. Speaking of which, where is Chanos and his slavish groupie, Carson Block?
Speculative momentum can occur for any reason. Let's not forget that the 'trapping shorty' strategy is an awkward idea for a few reasons. Short sellers are often sophisticated market participants who are betting on the decline of a stock. You usually don't want these type of traders sniffing around your favorite longs: I recall writing a 'short report' on a stock to watch it fall 50% that day. If you do a study of stock returns of highly shorted stocks, they are pretty awful. The reason there is 'no arbitrage' is the borrow rate.
But even if you got this poor short to capitulate and squeeze, the amount of buyers who are now holding stock at absurdly high prices put way more energy (and money) into the stock than the short seller's white towel ever could. A sledgehammer killed the fly: now what? Alternatively, are you the host or the parasite?
On populism. I don't really think most investors or speculators should go into any investment thinking that there is 'an enemy'. Concentrated (big) investments (bets) give rise to emotional behavior, typically the enemy in trading and investing as it clouds rational thinking. It's a lot better to be Socratic with your 'opponent' and understand what they're thinking. If your position were to be half the size it currently is, would you be as emotionally interested? Try it! You'll lower your risk and feel better.
Some of the behavior going on at WSB sounds more jihadist than speculative. The idea that there are some investors who are 'good' and others who are 'bad', or that there is an 'establishment' is BS. Everyone has the same goal: I have a pile of money, I'm trying to make it bigger, fuck your pile--I don't care about it. Anything other goal is contrived, foolish and won't help you win. You can't 'fight the rich' by trying to become one of them. Don't you see the irony? A related thought experiment: what if this trade continued to work really well? And another, and another? Then some WSBers are billionaires. Aren't they the new 'enemy/establishment?'
Who do you think hedge fund managers are? They're typically the anti-establishment. Things have changed a bit, but the most successful HFMs are actually the WSBers of the past. These are guys who didn't fit in well at i-banks, often got kicked out for having big mouths or not wearing the right ties, or just wanting to wear jeans at work and not fill out TPS reports. When they started their firms, people like Soros, Icahn, Steinhardt, Robertson, Cohen, Griffin, Loeb (who has posted anonymously on boards), Samberg, even Cramer were fish out of water and had very tiny amounts of capital, often begging for investors.
The need for an enemy. To sustain increasingly insane behavior, it isn't uncommon to use a straw man or a scapegoat. Oppressive regimes used this technique in the past, and the media uses it today. Retail investors don't have much power individually. With your $5k RH account, you can't day trade or even qualify for margin. It's pitiful. So, it's understandably quite exciting to finally feel like a 'player' that you read about. To be a part of 'something'. The problem is the media is goading you to be somewhere between a lemming and a life-agnostic but impotent jihadist. Blowing yourself up won't impress anyone, and there is no afterlife here, other than a minimum wage career and mom's sofa. GME and shorting in general is small potatos in the scheme of the Wall St. machine. Don't worry about getting 'even' with the rich. That's jousting at a windmill that will waste your energy.
No one here, hopefully, wants to be a lemming. Those willing to 'die on this hill' have to realize something: Wall Street doesn't care about its speculators. The new traders who vanquish the old simply replace them. Nothing changes. When LTCM blew up, or Amaranth, Visium, Galleon, or anyone else, it is 'out with the old and in with the new'. So, perhaps WSB can blow up 1 hedge fund or maybe 5, but so what? Eventually, the tables will turn and it will blow up. The leveraged, fast-money trading markets are a violent place and the only people who care one whit are the brokers charging fees (directly or indirectly). They only care to make sure the sorry carcasses can pay their bills. They know there will always be another speculator lined up, ready to shove his money into the lotto machine. There is no pride here. There is no credit for being a good solider. You either survive or you don't. Your job is to survive and thrive. Becoming a lemming will guarantee failure as per the statistical truism of gambler's ruin (enjoy the proof in measure theory). With enough time, anyone playing a game with <50% success rate (equal payouts), will lose all their money. Get that number above 50%. Add the Kelly Criterion to your trading strategy.
You might ask, "(that's all well and good OR we'll agree to disagree) but, Mr. Shrek, isn't this a good trading strategy? (ganging up on shorted stocks)?" As long as you're not a lemming/jihadist (willing to walk over the cliff, whether or not you have a "cause"), and you ignore a somewhat slimy ethical/market manipulation question, I don't see anything wrong with it. There are better ways to make money, since you're asking. Stoking (or worse, participating in) a buying frenzy that is akin to a forced musical chairs game is a little crazy. Once a stock is absurdly valued, you're just hoping the sell-off doesn't happen while you're holding it. If you have enough lemmings or jihadists 'helping you', that's a good thing. They will hold your bag--someone needs to.
Of course, if you've found the "next" Microsoft or Apple, no one needs to hold any bags. But, no company can increase its objective (aka fair) value quickly enough for this... phenomenon? situation? absurdity?... to make it reasonable. Those things take years, go slow and steady, and this frenzied buying/"short squeeze" phenomenon won't let value play a factor. That's why WSB GME longs have shifted theses from "well, Gamestop was/is cheap" to "the gaming cycle" to "Ryan Cohen will save us" to "...jihad?!"
Each member of the herd has its own financial parameters, too. Some may have $500, some $50,000,000 or more. Some may be willing to lose their entire stake (and even more) on an out-of-the-money or levered trade. Some are not. Some were in the latter and somehow end up in the former. Some are in one column at one price and another column at another--some are switched from column to column by force. Today's lemmings/jihadists are tomorrow's sellers. When you're hanging off the mountain, pay attention to the guy holding the rope.
Loosely 'coordinated' buying can certainly affect stocks. Heavily shorted stocks and small cap stocks are the kind that require less capital than typical to 'move' a stock. The irony here is when putting on a position, the trader's goal is typically NOT to move the stock with his actions!
I still think GME is wildly overvalued, but that doesn't exactly mean I'm 'bearish'. One funny idea here is reflexivity: GME stockholders may become serious GME customers and the company's fundamentals improve that way! Excluding some such miracle, eventually GME stock will trade at <50 again. I still think it will trade at 1,000 or more BEFORE that happens, and that the decline process will take a long, long time (several years). Keep in mind, anything can change. GME can do serial secondaries that destroy its stock. Management's job is to create value for their shareholders--but perhaps they will avoid pissing them off. There's a strange loop! Finally, the stock could be halted by the SEC or completely banned by brokers. Don't overdo it. Watch the borrow rate. Keep your positions at less than 25% of your capital--live to play another day.
Disclosure: I've never traded GME stock and do not intend to.
(From martin, posted by mo)
submitted by martinshkreli to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[The Beach Boys fandom] Heroes and Villains: the Beach Boys in the Trump Administration

So, to my knowledge, no one has done a write-up on the batshit insane history of the Beach Boys and the various inter-politics of band-members that extends to their fanbase, which is why I'm doing this now. I don't really use Reddit so excuse any formatting errors, I'm not entirely sure how to use italics on this thing, but I feel this story is worth sharing anyways.
Okay, let's start with the basics, the Beach Boys are a classic rock band most famous for being pioneers of surf-rock. They didn't invent the genre but they were one of the earliest commercially successful surf-rock bands to have vocals, basically cementing the vocal-jazz/doo-wop sound vocal style that's all over the genre. The band was formed by the three Wilson brothers (Brian, Carl and Dennis), their cousin Mike Love and their childhood friend Al Jardine. Brian Wilson was the group's leader, writing all of their songs and eventually producing their records, with Mike Love functioning as the group's lyricist and arguably their lead vocalist (all of the members sung lead but Mike didn't play any instruments so he tended to sing lead a bit more often to give him shit to do on stage). This was how the group functioned from the early 60s until 1964.
Here's where the issue begins, for various reasons (largely due to having a panic attack on an airplane) Brian Wilson decides that touring and surf rock sucks complete ass, and that he'd rather innovate in the studio. A solution is agreed upon where Brian will write and record in Los Angeles for most of the year as the other Beach Boys tour, occasionally stopping back in Los Angeles to provide vocals on the instrumentals that Brian cooked up. Lyrics are to be provided by Brian, although he eventually elects to just hire other lyricists. To make up for his absence they recruit another musician named Bruce Johnston to tour with them, who eventually just joins the band.
So Brian gets more studio time, drifts away from surf-rock and eventually rock altogether, discovers psychedelics and records some of the greatest records of all time. "Pet Sounds", the Beach Boys fourth album to be recorded in these circumstances, is largely considered the band's masterpiece and consistently ranks near the top of most "Greatest Albums of All Time" charts (it's currently #2 on Rolling Stone's list, for example). It's really incredible psychedelic pop, genuinely a fantastic record and one absolutely worth listening to in full ("Wouldn't It Be Nice" was used in a Fallout advertisement a few years ago and got some attention because of it, "God Only Knows" was performed Bioshock Infinite by a barbershop quartet, I think Reddit likes these sort of things, they're also just very famous songs in general). There's some other material recorded around here that's also fantastic but is not necessary to understand this post.
These albums were weird, and they were critically acclaimed, but they weren't as successful as past Beach Boys albums (at least not in America, they sold fantastically in the UK). After one of them was cancelled near its completion ("SMiLE", an album with it's own insane fan history I may write-up later) the band became significantly less successful, Brian Wilson became reclusive and the power in the band generally shifted to the other members.
For the most part, this has been true since 1971. Brian has come back a few times, most notably in 1977 with "Love You" (a very weird but very good early synth-pop album), but a history of mental health issues prevented him from ever fully returning and the power in the band gradually shifted over to Mike Love. Here's the thing though, Mike Love is an asshole.
Mike Love's many faults are too long to list here, but to put it plainly he's a money-grubbing Reagan-Republican jackass who trampled Brian's creative vision to push the band back towards its surf-rock roots, in the process creating some of the worst records of all time. The Mike Love-helmed Beach Boys albums must be what the Beach Boys sound like to people who hate them, they're truly dreadful. In the mid-90s he somehow got the rights to tour under the Beach Boys' name, and has been doing so consistently since.
This is where the fans split. To those who consider themselves fans of the Beach Boys there are two general mindsets: one that considers Mike Love to be the antichrist and one that doesn't. Can you guess which side I'm on? To those who prefer the Beach Boys' experimental works, he's a greedy businessman ruining the band's legacy, but those who prefer their surf-rock tend to be more in favor of the guy. This split is largely across political lines too, Mike fans tend to be more right-wing and Brian fans tend to be more left-wing.
Many arguments are had over the merits of these two sides of the band. As Reddit leans younger, more tech-savvy and more left-wing, thebeachboys is mostly in favor of Brian, but on Facebook it seems way more violent. If you search for concert footage of Mike Love's "Beach Boys" and contrast it with Brian Wilson's solo touring it's apparent what types of crowds they're playing to.
Now, some Beach Boys fans are bipartisan and that shouldn't be left unstated, but this is certainly true for the majority of them. This is where our most recent issue comes to play.
So a few weeks ago on New Year's Eve, after Trump lost the election but before he was out of office, he held a party at his Mar-a-Lago resort and the Beach Boys performed at it alongside Vanilla Ice. "The Beach Boys" in question were Mike Love and a handful of touring musicians but no other members, not even Bruce Johnston who is a republican and has toured with Mike before. To say this caused a shitstorm would be an understatement.
Beach Boys fans are insecure about many things and I'll be the first to admit that, "Pet Sounds" pretty directly inspired the Beatles' "Sgt. Pepper's" and yet the Beatles and the Beach Boys are often considered to be in different leagues which Beach Boys fans don't really like. One thing that fans of Brian are particularly insecure about is "The Beach Boys" being used when referencing Mike Love's touring band. You can bet that when dozens of articles from major news publications come out about "The Beach Boys" performing at Trump's mask-less party in the middle of a pandemic that these fans would be fucking pissed. And they were.
This was easily the most active I've seen Beach Boys fans in awhile, especially on Twitter where just about every tweet about the matter had a dozen Beach Boys fans underneath it clarifying that Brian had absolutely no connection to the concert. In a rare move for him, Brian (or at least his social media team) came out to condemn Mike Love for playing a mask-less concert in the middle of a pandemic to support a man who was voted out of office and wouldn't admit it. Al Jardine, another Beach Boys’ member who regularly tours with Brian agreed, and former Beach Boys’ collaborators had some more colorful things to say (including Van Dyke Parks, the lyricist for Brian’s “SMiLE” project who has pretty regularly shit-talked Mike Love over the years).
While this wasn’t the first controversy surrounding where Mike Love’s touring band choose to play concerts, there was a similar controversy a few months ago when they performed at a party for Trump’s re-election in October and another one back in February when they performed at a Safari Club (Brian Wilson is very strongly in favor of animal rights), but this was truly the last straw. Bipartisanship is nearly impossible to maintain with the current politics of band members, and while a true reunion of the band has been discussed to occur sometime later this year (or whenever quarantine lifts) it seems considerably unlikely. The band, the real band with Brian participating, is probably just over forever now. You'll still be able to see Mike Love's bastardization of "the Beach Boys", and you'll still be able to see Brian tour (and Al too, probably) with his incredibly superior backing band, but the true Beach Boys are done.
I, and I assume many others, have found some hope though. The sheer amount of backlash seems to show that the Beach Boys’ legacy hasn’t been ruined, that Brian’s experimental music has been and will continue to be properly appreciated, and that attempts to destroy with this boomer surf-rock garbage have ultimately failed. It’s nice to know, but we can’t really be sure for now. Knowing Mike Love, he’ll pull some more shit.
I don’t really know how to end Reddit posts but if any of you want a real belly-laugh I suggest you check out Mike Love’s 2017 double-album “Unleash the Love”, specifically its second disc which consists of re-recordings of classic Beach Boys songs. I don’t want to spoil it but pay attention to the vocals, they’re uhhh kinda hard to miss.
And if you want some good music to listen to, listen to Pet Sounds! It’s seen as a masterpiece for a reason. If you’ve already listened to it, then listen to their other stuff like “Friends” and “Wild Honey”. That “SMiLE” album I’ve mentioned a few times in this post was eventually released in like 2011 as “The Smile Sessions” and it’s fucking mesmerising, really worth a listen. Get involved with the Beach Boys fan community too, speaking for the Brian-side of the group there’s a lot of really good and really talented people working hard to preserve the band’s legacy. Brian’s current touring band actually consists of a bunch of Beach Boys fans (namely Darian Sahanaja, the main organiser) who were able to perfectly replicate the very complex arrangements of Brian’s songs live.
So yeah, that’s all. Have a good one, listen to the Beach Boys, and don’t be like Mike Love.
Edit/Author's Note: Just to be safe, I added a couple sentences to show that all of this did have consequences as to follow Rule 10. Didn't really impact the pacing or the point, just emphasized what's at stake in a clearer way. Also, you've all been super cool in the comments, very nice to see people who've decided to check out Pet Sounds after this. I know "thx fer de updoots" is a fucking meme but it's nice how welcoming you all are, I'll probably do a write-up on the history of SMiLE and all of the bootlegs people did sometime in the next couple weeks. Okay, author's note over.
submitted by cecilycelentano to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

Ford vs Ferrari Part 1 - Greasing the Wheels

From the guys who brought you The Greatest Short Burn of the Century..
Oh man, oh man, oh man.
Not again.
-Drizzy
Preface:
Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye...
Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock.
Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch.
Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC?
Intro:
Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years.
It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine.
Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade.
By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership:
Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses.
And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years"
This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive.
Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford.
When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter.
Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year.
As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME?
Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline:
Bronco:
Mach-E vs Tesla Model Y. Just the fact that there is debate between the better car is bullish for Ford.
The upcoming 2021 F-150 has positive consumer reviews as well:
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG)
Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point.
Multiples Expansion:
Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute):
$Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple
TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X
NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN)
GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X
F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X
That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA.
Revenue Multiple:
TSLA = 29X
F = 0.3X
EBITDA Multiple:
TSLA = 202X
F = 4.4X
Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market.
Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news...
TA, Options:
Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him).
Larger view.
As you can see, the trendline has broken out.
Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory.
This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory.
On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since.
On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C
250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77
These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days
Top OI changes:
+19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48%
+12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52%
Top OI positions:
170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25%
112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41%
The percentages are bid mid ask.
Someone is bullish on Ford.
For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick.
Options gamma is interesting to note as well.
Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something?
Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see.
The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous.
For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary.
This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational.
But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends.
The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Hmm...
Conclusion:
Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet.
Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA.
As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long.
I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings.
And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time.
Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects.
PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market.
-JA
submitted by Jeffamazon to wallstreetbetsOGs [link] [comments]

Post AEW Dynamite 1/27/21

It's Wednesday Night. You Know What That Means. ​🖐👁💜
Match Winner Post Match Brawl?
Eddie Kingston Vs. Lance Archer Eddie Kingston Yes
Jericho/MJF Vs. Hollywood Blondes Jericho/MJF No
Hangman Adam Page Vs. Ryan Nemeth Hangman No
Jungle Boy Vs. Noted Weenie Dax "The Bald One" Harwood Jungle Boy Yes
Britt Baker Vs. Shanna Britt Baker Yes
Young Bucks/Good Brothers VS Dark Order Nu-Bullet Club Yes
Future Announced Matches
Next Week (Beach Break):
No Date Yet But Announced
Revolution
Outside of Dynamite
  • On Dark
    • Proud n Powerful have a brief promo, where they say that for anyone that's been asleep, wake up and smell the coffee, it's their time to eat. We've had fair warning. Seems like maybe they're not done with the dream of being a tag team regardless of last week's match.
    • Lee Johnson, who has lost on Dark to nearly every single one of AEW's unbelievably THICC roster has finally obtained a win by defeating Future AEW World Champion Pretty Peter Avalon in the walkoff competition. Big round of applause for Lord of Dark Lee Johnson for finally finding a way to get that dub.
    • Chaos Project, perhaps recovering from their wounds inflicted upon them for the crime of.... hating children, is not on this weeks Dark, which makes this a Dark worth skipping. THROW EM THE FUCK UP ANYWAY 👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪
  • On IMPACT this Tuesday:
    • Welcome back to the Impact Zone.
    • Its the Tony's! It's the Tony's. Boy is it ever the Tony's Each week Tony seems more comfortable being a rich, snobby douchebag who is just here to rile up Impact fans. He's really killing it out there being a rich snobby douchebag.
    • Matt is with Private Party backstage in Impact. He says he led them to victory, PP says uh, I think our wrestling is probably more of a contributor. Matt tells them to look forward to No Surrender where they're going to win Impacts titles, but also at the TTBR on Dynamite, they gotta win that too. Matt says he's putting a bounty-- "BONUS" to them if they win. He needs them to win (Because he wants that $$$).
    • Matt Sabin and James Storm are at the IMPACT ZONE Bar and Grille talkin' shit about Hardy Party and the Good Brothers. Sabin says they're not Beer Money, they're not MCMG, but they still got what it takes to beat both of 'em.
    • fellongreydaze, or Fellon "WRONG" Grey "INCORRECT" Daze as we called them back in the navy, bet that Shawn Spears would be the mystery opponent scheduled for tonight's Impact last week-- but they were DEAD WRONG and should be shamed in the comments wherever you see them.
  • The AEW Awards, Exclusively on the B/R Live Telephone Application
    • miber3 wrote up the winners here if you're interested.
At Dynamite
  • Eddie and his Family laid out Jake, then continued to abuse Lance after they cheated to win. No one came out to save Lance or Jake, unfortunately.
  • Moxley is reiterating how he doesn't understand the entanglements occurring in the Elite and Death Triangle, himself and Eddie's family. He says he's a simple guy, he likes his beer cold, his coffee hot, and good sex in the morning. He doesn't overcomplicate things-- but he LOVES a six man tag. Gang warfare! It'll be wild at Beach Break, he says.
  • Darby and Sting are here. Sting says Taz, Brian, Ricky, since we're gonna be in this street sight, and you can't shut the fuck up, we're not cool. ME, A HOODLUM? he asks. Sting says, okay yeah, Darby's a hoodlum. Darby says it doesn't matter if it's clean or dirty in the streets, it's about survival. Darby calls Sting a hoodlum. They break windows together (this isn't a joke) then both agree that yes, actually, okay, they are in fact hoodlums. What a twist.
  • Before their match MJF tells Sammy they need to talk, then insults Griff for awhile, then asks him to simply quit before the match starts. Griff pounds his face and the match gets underway.
  • Pac is back in the den of madness. He tells Kenny he's acting like Billy Big Bollocks and that he owns this business with Callis. He says Kenny's a cheater and a slimeball. Next week, he says, bring everything you want, we're gonna hurt you back. Kenny will pay the consequences.
  • Shaq calls Cody a little punk and says he looks like a little girl in a recorded promo from the awards show. Says he'll fight him any time. But how about specifically, March? We then cut to Tony Schiavone who is in the ring waiting for Cody's new shitty snoop dog theme remix to finish. I think that the people who despise Cody and those who don't think he's the antichrist can probably find common ground here with this theme issue. Arn also is here. Tony asks Cody to respond to both Jade and Shaq. He says he'd rather "just give you the pitch", March 7th, Revolution, Cody/Brandi vs. Jade/Shaq. But, oops, can't, Brandi's pregnant, so... Cody says he's confused and distracted, so maybe Arn can solve this as he does many things. Arn says he chewed Cody's ass out earlier because he deserved it. Arn asks for patience through his promo. He says Cody is about to be a dad, which is gonna be all over his mind. But think about it like this. June 1985. He saw Dusty fight 30 minutes with Tully, fly across country, then see the Cody Fetus being born. Arn says if you choose to fight Shaq at Revolution, you have to do it eyes wide open, no regrets. He says this is a once in a lifetime match. Shaq dominated basketball and proved he was world class. He says Jade dominates every room she's in, he assumes. But Arn sees something. He then invites the actually great Red Velvet out. She comes out looking very strong, and says she has fire. Velvet gets the mix. She says, quite frankly, she's fed up with getting attacked, she's tired of Brandi getting attacked by big mouth coward Jade. She says Cody won't hurt Jade, but she will. She will stir her bitch ass up, she says. JR responds with "She said bitch ass. That means she's serious". Good shit JR. The segment ends.
  • Kip spills some poetry about Penelope. PENELOPE SPEAKS. She says she's excited to marry this handsome man. She invites us to Beach Break for their wedding. Miro jumps in and says Miro and Charles will be there too! What a story Miro.
  • Matt Hardy came out during the Page/Nemeth match. He applauds Hangman after the win, then Hangman invites him over. Tony Schiavone comes over for a chat. He asks what's happening. Matt says he didn't want to make a scene. Matt just wanted Hangman to know he supports him. Matt says he's been concerned, Adam's been lost. He says he know Hangman loved his friends and they all burned him. Matt says Dark Order isn't for you. He wants Adam to know he deserves to be happy. Matt says you should come to my dressing room! Plenty of space!
  • Tully throws powder into Luchasaurus' eyes after the match, then Noted Weenies FTR are able to destroy both Jungle Boy and deliver a spiked piledriver to Luchasaurus from Tully to finish him off. They cuff Luchasaurus to the ropes and they cut off his horns!! ABSOLUTELY UNFORGIVABLE ACT. They go to cut off Jungle Boys' hair, but luckily this is averted by half the locker room.
  • We go to Team Taz. Taz says Ricky and Brian are ready to destroy them-- but then Will and HOOK come up to a merch dealer set up outside the arena and beat them up because they have no Team Taz merch. "First name basis, huh brothers?" Taz asks. Forgotten Son Of Taz Brian Cage rips a tshirt. The segment ends.
  • Britt continues hear beatdown of Shanna after their match only to be interrupted by Thunder Rosa. Rosa runs her out the ring before checking on Shanna.
  • MJF is with Sammy while Sammy is at the Dynamite Bar and Grille. MJF says Wardlow wasn't supposed to get involved in MJF's match and MJF docked his pay. Sammy says MJF doesn't fool him. He might be the only one who sees it, but he does see it. MJF says "You sure you want to play it this way?" Sammy says he isn't playing and MJF retreats.
  • The Bucks are in the TTBR, if they win they get to choose their opponents for the title match.
  • Dasha is with the Bucks and Good Brothers. It's been years since the last time you fought, how's it feel she asks. The Good Brothers say they're gonna crush their match next week. The Bucks say it'll all be fine as long as Callis doesn't get involved. Kenny swings by and says hey, we need to talk. Don comes by with an absurd phantom of the opera mask on because even an unsalted slug is jealous of how slimy he is, and everything breaks into an argument as the Bucks' music plays.
  • Matt says next week the winners get a shot at the belts, and if they win, they get to pick anyone. And it can be anyone. Just then, Fenix runs in, then Mox, and chaos ensues as the show concludes for the week.
Post-Show Poll Results & Surprising Biblical Knowledge
  • 1/13 Results:
    • Overall Rating 3.87
    • Best Match: Allin Vs Cage (61.3%)
    • Worst Match: Taylor Vs. Miro (50.8%)
    • Wrestler of the Week: 1st: Darby Allin (46.2%), 2nd: Brian Cage/Tay Conti (Tie: 12.4%/12.4%)
    • Full results here
  • 1/20 Results
    • Overall Rating 2.95
    • Best Match: Adam Page & Dark Order Vs. TH2 & Chaos Project (38.1%)
    • Worst Match: Cody Vs. PPA (39.5%)
    • Wrestler of the Week: 1st: Adam Page (28.5%), 2nd: Sammy Guevara (20.6%) 3rd: Jon Moxley (5.9%)
    • Full results here
  • Leyla Hirsh was just barely out of WOTW range, only 3 votes from Moxley's position, pretty good showing from someone not even officially signed to the roster. I'd expect that to change before, during, or after the women's eliminator tournament.
    • 28 of you goons rated last weeks show a five out of five. I just wanna know, what do you consider a FOUR? Does someone need to DIE ON AIR?
  • Proverbs 6:16-19 of the Bible states as follows: There are six things that the Lord hates, seven that are an abomination to him: haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that devises wicked plans, feet that make haste to run to evil, a false witness who breathes out lies, and one who sows discord among brothers. However, apocryphal texts found alongside the Dead Sea Scrolls include an additional, recently discovered passage: "Woe be unto that which is most abominable to Him: His most despicable creation and most loathed enemy, Eddie Kingston, whose existence and iniquity has displeased Him greater than that of any other man created in His image. To him The Lord's curses flow freely, and the blood of his hands and the sweat of his brow which pours forth in multitudes of sorrow, He will take His greatest joy.". It's clear now to me, having read and understood these lost words of King Solomon, that Eddie Kingston may be correct about his relationship with God.
Hacksaw Jim Duggan Buries All Elite Wrestling
With a wrestling career that's lasted more than 40 years, Jim Duggan's power level is beyond comprehension. If he hasn't beaten an AEW wrestler directly, he's beaten them through a few degrees of separation.
Could Hacksaw Jim Duggan defeat Sting?
Yes, Hacksaw Jim Duggan could easily defeat Sting.
Hacksaw has previously defeated:
Kenny Omega, Colt Cabana, Hikaru Shida, Kris Statlander, Eddie Kingston, Chris Jericho, Darby Allin, John Silver, Evil Uno, Hangman Adam Page, Private Party, Alex Reynolds, Matt Hardy, Jon Moxley, and the Young Bucks.
And has lost to only one man:
The Exalted One, Mr. Brodie Lee
Outside Links
Being The Elite on Youtube
AEW Dark & More on Youtube
Visit /AEWOfficial - The Most "Official" Unofficial Subreddit for All Elite Wrestling fans.
Visit AllEliteWrestling.com for news, tickets, merch, and other info.
Watch Impact Wrestling On Twitch
submitted by SmurfyX to SquaredCircle [link] [comments]

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