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$FUBO DD - Connecting the dots, this thing is going to be a MONSTER.
From u/heardme Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity for us. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. Fubo has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html
Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales:
Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million.
Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million.
Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year.
Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours.
Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year.
Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million.
Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers.
It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Jan 25, 2021 and Feb 03, 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop soon. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a low volume selloff Friday. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected late January to mid-February). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute.
How to break Wall Street. And what to understand about GME and the markets.
Hey apes, tl;dr Please read this whole post. This is how we can win and why Wall Street is so scared of us. I've still got these diamond hands and I like GameStop even more. Why? Because our favorite company has received the biggest injection of consumer capital a brand has likely ever received. Our favorite company is literally the storefront battle line where the little guy is taking on Wall Street, won but got cheated out of victory, and has codified memes like "diamond hands" into a modern version of David vs Goliath. And we still just want to go to the moon. The rest of this post is going to explore 2 certainties: 1) we can go to the moon with GME, and would have already except for blatant market manipulation and fraud, so we have to recognize that this is a war and we have to innovate to get to the moon, and 2) it's actually really easy to go to the moon and we figured out the legal cheat code to get there. Why do we know we can go to the moon with GME? Because Wall Street cheated to crash our rocket ship. But the important thing to recognize is that they crashed our rocket ship to the GME moon by shutting off consumer demand then colluding to flood supply and use short ladder attacks to impose a downward stock trend. But media pundits (who are paid by Wall Street interests) are saying "fundamentals" and presenting talk of "Reddit guys are the bad market influence video game players because they don't know what they're doing, like we do, the experts." No. Supply and demand. That's how the market functions at its most basic parts. We had them in a squeeze and they turned off demand because they have advance data that showed them how fucked they were if they didn't turn off our ability to buy more GME. How do we know that supply and demand drives stock price? Let's assess recent trends that don't concern GME. Here are two examples off the top of my head:
Signal Advance. One tweet from Elon Musk about using the Signal App drove people into a company not related to the Signal App. A small cap company that trades on the OTC (remember that for later - it's important for winning a war against short sellers while playing within the legality of market rules). A sudden demand for just 2 million shares of Signal Advance spiked the share price 5,643%... yes, demand of a small cap stock pushed a price up 5,643%. Demand. The thing Wall Street shut off when we were buying GME. Here's an article about Signal Advance. I think this moment is incredible information for us and it's worth a read to solidify the idea that supply and demand drives price.
https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/finance/musk-signal-advance/ 2) Dogecoin. Again, Elon is providing us incredible information here. The exposure of and resulting demand for Dogecoin, even though the market cap is huuuuuuge and the cryptocurrency was actually intended as a joke, is driving the price through the roof. The last time I checked my dogecoins they went from fractions of a cent per coin to about 8 cents per coin. That is a huge gain based solely on consumer demand and psychological willingness to join into a meme attached to the perception of potentially life changing financial gains. So what does this tell us about GME? The squeeze isn't squoze, apes... here's some high level confirmation of this fact in an interview that u/rekoms12 alerted me to that is actually an attempt to say the squeeze already happened. This video is an interview with Ihor Dusaniwsky, the head guy at S3, the agency that has been blasting reports that short interests in GME covered, uses a statistical model that doesn't account for naked shorting as a possibility (he actually gives the game away by explaining how short selling is supposed to work considered with data of a GME short interest above 100%), and is paid by hedge funds for market data. Keep all of those things in mind. Here's the link: https://youtu.be/22r48IVx7c8 As u/Rekoms12 observed, Ihor contradicts himself in the interview at a critical juncture. He says the upward movement of GME was retail demand, not a short squeeze. Supply and demand... But then he says that the squeeze happened at around $300, and then the price corrected. So was it a squeeze or not? And what's very telling to me is that Ihor and the interviewer don't talk about Robinhood and other brokerages artificially turning off consumer demand at the same time hedge funds turned up supply, the point when the price starts to dip. What else do we know that's critical to understanding that the squeeze isn't squeeze? We're getting gaslit with a mass media narrative that says GME is a bad investment. Because fundamentals... but let's dissect that:
again, GameStop is literally the face and rallying point where we occupied and fucked with Wall Street in a real and serious way. So seriously that they cheated markets in broad view of the world. That is an injection of consumer capital and potential loyalty spending that has unfathomable value. The fact that none of the GME hit pieces mention the demand side market manipulation as the catalyst for a price drop or offer honest consideration of GameStop's new WORLD profile as the face of small consumers resisting rich assholes fucking us and our wives as a value add to the fundamentals definitely shows that they're lying.
I've read reports that the real short report scheduled for February 9th will now be delayed until Feb 25th. Hmm. What that tells me is that they haven't settled their short positions at all. The greedy fucks actually, most likely, increased their short positions while they were cheating us. So why the delay? Simple. Their only out from the short squeeze is to turn market sentiment against GME, against us, and wait us out. It's a delay tactic. They think they can win a game of patience with us where they have an options deadline they're trapped in. They need us to let them out of the trap. But I'm no Portnoy because I have diamond hands.
here's how bullshitty these pricks are actually being when they say their superior understanding of "fundamentals" justify them not letting us do what we want. This article is from Bloomberg. It is literally called "Is the Key to Beating the Market Written in the Stars?", stars by saying "Henry Weingarten invests his clients’ money by charting the movement of heavenly bodies," and includes line like:
By grounding astrology in the less mystical-sounding business cycle, Williams inspired a new generation of financial astrologers. The most decorated isArch Crawford, 77. Mark Hulbert, a ranker of financial newsletters, has rated Crawford the country’s top stock market timer a number of times. One of his biggest wins came in 2008, when he essentially called the crash. Crawford, a veteran of Merrill Lynch & Co., nails his CNBC soundbites and comes off as only mildly eccentric when discussing his craft. “I have the moon on the midheaven in Capricorn, which means I gain the attention of people without trying,” he tells me. “I have been written up in all the best places.” And the article gets deeper: US MARKETS ARE ‘EASY’ IF YOU REMEMBER THAT TRUMP’S 2018 HOROSCOPE IS STELLAR Here's the article; PLEASE READ IT to understand the truth of HOW FUCKING MANY (even places like Merril-Lynch!!!) HEDGE FUNDS INVEST AND JUDGE COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS BASED ON ASTROLOGY!!! And they're chastising retail traders ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS!!! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-27/is-the-key-to-beating-the-market-written-in-the-stars Would you trust an astrologer to tell you what to do with your hedge fund and call it sound fundamentals. Please take the time to google how widespread "financial astrology" is on Wall Street. It really tells us how full of shit they are about GME fundamentals... I wish this was a joke. It's not. And, again, my hands are fucking diamond. How do we win? It's the Age of Aquarius, baby. I learned that on MarketWatch, though this isn't an official MarketWatch article, like the official Bloomberg article above: https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/age-of-aquarius-final-activation-on-december-21st-at-622-pm-utc-2020-12-14 And how does that help? It helps because of something we learned, the real thing Wall Street is so terrified of us figuring out because it breaks their short selling game: pump and dumps are illegal, but our diamond hands pump and pump strategy isn't regulated, and it's legal (and fyi, I trust diamond hands with my money way more than Tina, my wife's boyfriend's tarot card reademarket astrologer). How do we know pump and hold is legal? Two things:
Here's the definition of Pump and Dump from Investopedia:
Pump-and-dump is a scheme that attempts to boost the price of a stock through recommendations based on false, misleading, or greatly exaggerated statements. The perpetrators of this scheme already have an established position in the company's stock and sell their positions after the hype has led to a higher share price. This practice is illegal based on securities law and can lead to heavy fines. But what if you just say "I just like the stock. Want to like it with me and hold onto it with me because you have diamond fucking hands, you beautiful ape baby." Or what if you say, "I'm into this stock for the memes instead of the Wall Street star chart fundamentals." Or just "I don't care what you say about it. I like it and I want it and I'm keeping it." And what if you have that market perspective about a stock and identify some legitimate underlying potential in a stock like u/deepfuckingvalue saw in our favorite stock, GME, that now has a ride or die consumer base motivated by decades of getting fucked over because we finally figured out how to say, "Apes angry. Apes together strong. Game stop." 2) And to reconfirm that our Pump and Hold Diamond Hands (PHD-H) ape market strategy is legal, I got this Wall Street Journal article on Robinhood titled "GameStop frenzy is tough call for regulators focused on transparency"; here's the link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestop-frenzy-is-tough-call-for-regulators-focused-on-transparency-11612693802 The key takeaway for me in this article is when a very important Wall Street astrologer says: “You can sell garbage to the public as long as you say to the public, ‘This is garbage and you’d be an idiot to buy it, but would you like to buy it?’” The Wall Street astrologer who said that is Harvey Pitt, a former SEC chairman. An SEC chairman told us that... WE FIGURED OUT THE CHEAT CODE APES. THE WAR WE'RE IN IS LITERALLY MARKET ASTROLOGY vs DIAMOND HANDS. AND WE HAVE THE ADVANTAGE BECAUSE WE CAN DO DIAMOND HANDED MEME PUMPS LEGALLY WHICH DISADVANTAGES HEDGE FUNDS IN SHORT POSITIONS. AND WE HAVE THEM TRAPPED IN SHORT POSITIONS!!! They literally told us how to beat them at the market game. How do we beat and humiliate Wall Street? Let's fuk these fuckers who have humiliated and shamed us for not being educated like them over their GME manipulation while they're investing billions of dollars (maybe trillions) based on star charts. As MarketWatch told us, it's the Age of Aquarius. And we're currently under Aquarius Zodiac sign. Something else I found out while researching for this post is that the Aquarius Zodiac is ruled by Saturn and Uranus. So let's ride a rocket together. Let's say/protest market cheating as a community and tell Wall Street: "it's Aquarius (which you know better than us because you're about fundies, not tendies), so we decided to ride a diamond hands rocket past Saturn and straight to Uranus." Here's the small cap stock we can do this with: Aquarius AI INC As SEC chairman Harvey Pitt told us to do, I'm pretty sure this stock is complete garbage. I bought some because I'm an idiot. I literally bought this stock because I want to tell Wall Street "I rode an Aquarius rocket to Uranus, I fucked, then I rode the rocket back to earth. That's the main reason I like the stock. Why else, though:
Aquarius AI has AI in their name. This is definitely a stupid reason to like and buy this stock, but I made a few grand on Dogecoin stalking Papa Elon's Twitter, and he's so into AI that I think he's a robot. So this is for Elon.
Aquarius AI is involved in E-Sports Betting. Here's an article about it:
https://www.aquariusai.ca/aquarius-ai-announces-transition-into-esports-betting-management-changes-private-placement-financing-and-proposed-shares-for-debt-transaction-2/ So this is definitely stupid because Wall Street told me liking GME with diamond hands is a dumb ape strategy (which it says in their star charts), but DraftKings made huge Super Bowl money, E-Sports is getting bigger and bigger, and Aquarius AI being involved in E-Sports Betting means it fits with my love (and future consumer spending habits) that are fixated on GameStop. Also, I'm on Reddit and play video games and Wall Street mocked me for that. In fact, I didn't even know I could bet on E-Sports!!! Fuck buying my wife's boyfriend more stamina crackers. I'm betting on Starcraft. So this is for elite video game players and GameStop. 3) Aquarius AI trades on the OTC. Why is that important? Because it's very uncommon for an OTC stock to get shorted, so it's largely outside the schemes Wall Street conspired with to cheat us out of GME tendies. 4) The CEO of Aquarius AI has crazy eyes. That's probably a stupider reason to invest than Trump's horoscope like that hedge fund manager in the Bloomberg article, right? 5) Aquarius AI trades for $0.07 right now, there are only 22.3M outstanding shares, and the market cap is only $1.5M. That's way easier to rocket with a PHD-H community investment strategy than Signal did after Elon's tweet. WAY EASIER!!! And this is also a totally stupid reason to invest in this garbage stock, but that makes it easier to ride an Aquarius rocket to Uranus, then back to Earth. And that sounds fun. 6) Also, I have diamond hands. I want to see how much I lose after the Aquarius AI peak so we can extrapolate real market research about the impact of turning of demand side for GME to halt price momentum. That's such a stupid idea it isn't even regulated because no one smart enough to regulate the markets has ever been stupid enough to want to do that. So... is it stupid to invest in a garbage stock to get less stupid? Definitely. You'd be stupid to invest. Are you stupid? I am. 7) Also, I just like the stock. Apes, let's rocket the fuck out of Aquarius AI INC and mock these hedge fund cheaters. It's legal. And it's a legitimate protest. And I want us to be able to look back at this moment and say, "Diamond hands, Wall Street. You fucked us on GME. But we rode an Aquarius AI Rocket straight to Uranus, then we rode it back home, you astrology fundamental fucks." Who's with me? I'm in. I'm staying in. Diamond Hands. It won't take many of us. p.s. I know some of you apes will go full paper hands and jump off the Aquarius AI rocket at Mars, or wherever. But whatever. I'madvocating you be stupid enough to not profit from this Pump and Hold strategy about this garbage stock I like that I'm not selling. But if you're less stupid than that, I implore you to be so stupid that you reinvest you're Aquarius AI rocket tendies back in GME, for totally stupid reasons, like you just want to.
FuboTV DD (First time making DD, please give advice)
I tried to make it easy to skip around if you just want to see the financials or estimates. Just scroll to them if you don't care what the company is or their sectocompetition/management. TL;DR at bottom with final thoughts. Introduction “FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies. Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018." From their home page: They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons). They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN). Plans and Add-ons FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (Channels page). The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (Channels page). The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (Channels page). The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (Channels page). Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (Channels page). Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month. Financials and Growth Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a 10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands. Assets- Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention. Liabilities- Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905. Revenues- Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a 77-84% increase YOY. Expenses- Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year. Subscribers- Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY. Competition Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)). Hulu + Live TV
Includes league networks
50 hours of free DVR (200 hours for $9.99/month)
More than 74 channels
Unskippable ads on DVR without upgrade to 200 hours
2 streams at a time
$64.99/month
Can add ESPN+ and Disney+ for an additional $7/month
YouTube TV
Includes league networks
Unlimited DVR storage
More than 85 channels plus YouTube Red Originals
3 streams at a time
Sports Plus package for an additional $10.99/month
NBA LeaguePass for an additional $40/month or $119.99 annually
Starting at $64.99/month
Sling TV Blue
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 45 channels
3 streams at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Orange for a total of $50/month
Sling TV Orange
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 30 channels
1 stream at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting at $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Blue for a total of $50/month
Merger with FaceBank for $100 million revolving credit
Analysts and Estimates Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021. Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%. Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance. Risks
Marketing fails and Fubo is never known as a household name, so consumers stick with other more known providers
Their sportsbook fails and becomes dead weight and wasted money
Subscriber count and streaming drops as quarantine lifts, reducing revenues while maintaining expenses
Consumers opt for cheaper options
People paying for the sports package cancel when the season is over, creating a boom and bust cycle if not managed correctly
Final Thoughts / TL;DR With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition. At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue. My Position 25 shares at $47.30 Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
$FUBO Sports Streaming and Gambling Wrapped Up in One
Hello there fellow degenerates. I know everyone still has their panties in a bunch over $GME and $AMC, but shockingly there are other stocks in the market. Before you rip off my head, just hear me out. $FUBO. Fubo TV is a streaming television service that allows you to cut the cord when it comes to cable. It provides over 250+ television channels and boasts perhaps one of the largest collections of sports channels. Apes from all over can watch their favorites from football to cricket (I hear that's popular with some crayon eaters abroad). Now, you're probably thinking, "So what? There are tons of streaming platforms out there, the market is dominated by established providers like Netflix and Hulu.....and now I'm bored because I have the attention span of a goldfish." Well boys and girls, the thing that makes this turd so shiny is that last month $FUBO just bought Vigtory - a sportsbook platform - which they plan to use to establish a revenue stream. When I heard they were creating another way for a retard like myself to risk money, I felt a tiny tingle in my flesh flavored bean bag. Other sports betting companies like Penn Gaming and Draftkings are trading higher comparatively, and streaming platforms like ROKU are on another planet. This thing has room for growth. Now the icing on the cake is that this news didn't come out until AFTER a large number of individuals decided to short $FUBO stock. It has a 73% short interest float since January 15th. Short interest volume was 31% today. So this stock does have the potential for a bit of the ole squeeeeeze. But that shouldn't be the reason you retards invest in this company. By $FUBO combining sports streaming and online gambling they could become leaders in the sports betting arena. $FUBO predicts a full launch of the platform before the end of 2021. TLDR: $FUBO will be the new crack for sports betting addicts. This is not financial advice, this retard just likes this stock.
$FUBO DD - Connecting the dots, this thing is going to be a MONSTER.
Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity for us. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. Fubo has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html
Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales:
Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million.
Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million.
Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year.
Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours.
Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year.
Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million.
Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers.
It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Jan 25, 2021 and Feb 03, 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop soon. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a low volume selloff Friday. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected late January to mid-February). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute.
Score Media and why its a massive candidate for a multi bagger
Hello fellow autists, Just a pre-cursor, this is my first post of any kind on WSB. I would occasionally peruse the forum but was obviously drawn here from the GME craze and love every part of it. Score Media and Gaming, listed on the TSX as SCR and in the US as TSCRF. These guys have nothing but positive news coming in the next 12 months and has the ability to at least double in the next half year, if not sooner. These guys are foraying into the sports betting market and are the only players that have a fully intuitive and integrated sports scores/stats application on the market. So what are the positives/catalysts for Score Media: - Expansion with the help/investment of Penn Gaming to expand sportsbook in the US. Keep in mind, Penn is the same company that invested in Barstool. The Score is already approved in New Jersey, Indiana and Colorado, with Iowa right around the corner, and Michigan up next. - Sports betting in Canada is a 14 Billion dollar market. Single wagering is currently illegal, however, there is unity across the aisle between all political parties to amend the criminal code and make single wagering legal. There are currently two bills in play. C-13 and C-218. C-13 second reading is currently delayed, while C-218 is scheduled for the House of Commons on February 24th. Like most countries, they have currently spent a ton of money propping up their respective economies due to COVID-19. It is highly unlikely the Canadian government rejects this massive taxable revenue stream when it needs it the most - Leader in sports applications for time spent on the app on a monthly basis, beating out heavy hitters like TSN, ESPN, Bleacher Report....literally every other sports media application - Only major player with an already existing sports news/fantasy application with seamless sportsbook integration. No hopping back and forth, you can wager through the sports app as if you were on the sportsbook - They are the biggest E-sports media player with over 1 million subscribers on YouTube and that lead is growing - They are pushing to get listed on the NYSE in the very near future to further growth and investment opportunities. The only real hinderance that could potentially stop the run of this company is if the Canadian government fails to amend the current laws for single game wagering, which in the current economical climate, I find extremely unlikely. ESPECIALLY with support from all political parties including the Conservatives, New Democratic Party, Bloc Quebecois and most Liberal MP's. Even in the event that this for some reason failed to pass, it still has access to an enormous US market with the backing of Penn. I love this stock boys and girls! EDIT 1: Currently with 2500 shares. Started at 1.71 and have been steadily buying dips, now at 1.91 cost average Sources and Links: Bill C-218 and Canadian Market: https://financialpost.com/telecom/everything-has-changed-canadian-companies-looking-to-cash-in-as-sports-betting-legalization-spreads https://www.radionl.com/2021/02/04/bclc-advocating-for-ottawa-to-legalize-single-event-sport-betting/ ScoreBet integration: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201112005877/en/Introducing-BET-SECTION-A-New-Dedicated-Home-for-Betting-on-theScore-App Penn investment and US plans: https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/01/16/the-faceoff-score-media-vs-draftkings-the-well-known-canadian-online-gaming-site-is-bracing-for-competition-from-its-larger-us-peer-but-its-high-brand-recognition-across-canada-gives-it-home-ice.html Canadian position compared to rivals and US listing plans: https://www.casino.org/news/thescore-ceo-says-company-in-pole-position-for-canadian-sports-betting/
Python library that gets odds on any event for all major sports, and almost 30 different sportsbooks
What's up fellow degens. I wrote and released a Python package that accesses Sportsbook Review's GraphQL endpoint (sportsbookreview.com). This means you can access any odds information found on SBR in the time it takes to load a webpage. Any betting market found on SBR is supported, e.g. half and quarter spread, ml and total, and futures odds. Any sportsbook found on SBR is supported. I have tested the program for basketball, football, UFC, tennis, soccer and hockey, but it should work for baseball, golf, horse racing, boxing and politics as well.
Examples
Odds on Wimbledon futures
March Madness odds
Odds on McGregor vs. Poirier
Bovada's complete line history for every game the Lakers played last year
Closing oveunder line on for every game the Leafs and Habs played against each other last year
Odds on today's game in Brazil Serie A between Coritiba FC PR vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ (tried to find the most random event)
Number of bets placed on Ravens vs. Bills amongst SBR users on each side of the spread.
Limitations
FanDuel and DraftKings are not available on SBR, but the odds source they use includes them. I used only sportsbooks that are available on the site's front end. It may be possible to add support for FanDuel and DraftKings
I have no idea what the rate limit is on requests to the GraphQL endpoint so if you use this library try and avoid hammering the server with multiple requests per second
The GraphQL endpoint is for SBR's internal use, and I have no control over it - use at your own risk.
With that being said, feedback welcome! If any SBR employees are reading, please for the love of god don't shut it down, I worked way too hard on this EDIT: I created a discord server if anyone has questions / problems getting it working / feedback!
Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015 and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. FuboTv has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales: Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million. Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million. Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year. Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours. Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year. Q4 Preliminary Results: https://ir.fubo.tv/news/news-details/2021/fuboTV-Announces-Preliminary-Fourth-Quarter-2020-Revenue-and-Subscriber-Growth/default.aspx Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million. Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers. It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Feb-March 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60, this is minimum upside. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop even further and it has not even begun. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a little bit of rally due to GME situation. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected Feb-March). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
HZON DD & My SPAC Investing Philosophy (deep dive; long read)
What you should know about HZON: SPAC, Todd Boehly, with target in the entertainment space—specifically focusing on acquiring an entertainment business that leverages current & future technologies to better engage consumers and capitalize on emerging trends in entertainment consumption. Hi all, Hope you’re enjoying your weekend! As I’ve really been digging into the SPAC space, I’ve encountered a few mentions of HZON (Horizon Acquisition II). You may be familiar with HZAC, which is a SPAC being organized by the same businessman: Todd Boehly. Both SPACs are sound, but below, I’ll outline why I find HZON especially promising. Before I get to my outline of HZON’s particular potential, I’d like to provide a brief overview of my SPAC investing philosophy (which is, admittedly, quite simple and shared by many, I’m sure): Invest in phenomenal people & teams—especially if those people & teams understand how to onboard and leverage other phenomenal people & teams. In the SPAC space, so many ideas seem great. Revolutionary. Exciting. But if we review previous SPACs that last and truly deliver on promises, there is typically one common denominator: leadership (teams & people). And without a solid leadership foundation from the outset, it’s highly unlikely the initial leadership is poised to onboard better, greater leadership to close that gap that truly separates the greats from the duds. If you’ve been in the SPAC arena for a while, you’ve undoubtedly encountered similar advice. So, moving onto HZON and their team: Todd Boehly
Perhaps most well known for his ownership in the Los Angeles Dodgers. From my chair, this signals an understanding of entertainment, as well as a deep understanding of entertainment’s value for consumers. Moreover, ownership in the LA Dodgers really piqued my interest, as the Dodgers have been doing markedly well with advertising, promotion, and branding as of recently (IMO). Now, does Boehly have a direct hand in the Dodgers’ day-to-day marketing strategies? Likely not, but I’m sure that broad decisions are made that involve his input, and I do love where the Dodgers are going.
Led a serious deal between Time Warner Cable and the LA Dodgers to create SportsNet LA. SportsNet LA is a regional broadcasting program that broadcasts all Dodgers events & games. Boehly knows how to close serious deals like this, and it makes me very confident in his decision making and results-driven philosophy moving forward.
Chairman of MRC: owns Dick Clark productions with investments in A24, Fulwell 73, and Penske Media, which owns Billboard, Rolling Stone, Variety, and The Hollywood Reporter. This position speaks for itself. A24 is doing perhaps the most innovative, creative, and exciting work in film at the moment—just made me personally excited!
Has received personal awards for financial acumen, and his net worth stands at roughly $5 billion. The guy has the funds and resources to back up his bets on these SPACs, and I have absolutely zero fear of the SPAC folding (unlikely, anyways).
Cindy Holland
Recently left Netflix as the VP of original content. She had an 18-year run with NFLX and was considered an innovator while there. The creative content department at Netflix took the company from streaming contender to streaming giant. Their original content over the past few years has been very solid (with the exception of some truly terrible films). Cindy knows content, obviously, and she was in on the ground floor of one of the most industry-shaking companies of the past two decades. Netflix has truly revolutionized how we consume media (see my note at the top of this post).
Now, some speculation on Holland: She was sort of pushed out of Netflix, from what I’ve gathered. Maybe not the sweetest departure you could imagine. So what does this mean for her participation in HZON? She’s motivated. She’s ready to shake things up again. And she’s primed for success during the golden years of her career. With Netflix and its immense success under her belt, Holland is looking for, IMO, one final project in her lifetime, and I think she wants to close on something that was just as transformative at Netflix.
Also the owner of a sports team—Angel City Football Club (I’ll explain the importance later).
Jason Robins
Co-founder, chairman, and chief executive officer of Draftkings. From his bio:
“He has built a reputation for expanding DraftKings’ reach across numerous platforms through wide-ranging, forward-thinking partnerships. Under his leadership, DraftKings became the first DFS company to partner with Major League Baseball in 2013. Mr. Robins led efforts at DraftKings to work with policy makers and regulators to pass fantasy sports, sports betting and iGaming legislation.”
Draftkings is an absolute innovator in the field. Similar to how Netflix has forever altered the ways in which we consume movies and TV, Draftkings has forever altered sports betting.
I don’t know as much about Robins, but are you catching on to the trend here?...
There are several other board members, but it seems like they are coming from MRC, which is a great thing, IMO. Mostly financial operations guys. So, if you didn’t catch it, the three biggest players on the board have a very particular experience in common: sports. Boehly’s ownership in the LA Dodgers, Holland’s ownership of the football club, and Robins’ vast experience with sports betting. It’s important to note that Boehly attempted a hostile takeover of the Chelsea football club a couple years ago, but the owner shut him down. Recently, Boehly was interviewed by Bloomberg and was asking: “Is (HZON) going to be used to acquire a sports team?” Boehly danced around the question but said yes, anything is a possibility. In a world where cable is going the way of the dodo bird, consumers are still seeking a strong alternative where streaming sports is viable and easy. Right now, sports streaming is quite spread out. But here’s my final word on a potential target: it doesn’t matter. HZON’s team is just absolutely stacked with talent. And not just talent of the variety that delivers results and plays along with game of numbers and paper and shareholders. Boehly, as well as Holland and Robins, are talented, specifically, in disrupting current trends and innovating within markets (both old and emerging). Holland Robins took age-old entertainment ideas and radically flipped them, innovating for the 21st-century consumer and delivering a wholly new and exciting experience. As such, I see a very, very bright future for HZON no matter their target. In a market that rewards innovation and inspirational leadership WITH a track record to back up that innovation, the sky is the limit, in my humble opinion. I’m really looking forward to seeing what these three, in addition to their team, can do in the upcoming months. Commons are priced well, $10.60 (ish). We, like Holland in the early 00s with Netflix and Robins in the early 10s with Draftkings, are in on the ground floor. Very, very exciting. I hope this overview was helpful, and hopefully some of you are as excited as I am about this one.
This was given an 11 price target (closed over that today) but I think this will be a good long term hold and here is why. The CEO/founder has been involved with online gambling since 1996(!!!). Also, their CIOJohn Brackens was an Activision Blizzard networks manager. They've been in purchase mode recently and bought ggCircuit, a B2B cloud-based management for LAN centers, a tournament platform, and integrated wallet/point-of-sale solutions for enterprise customers. ggCircuit has over 1,000 connected locations and has worked with enterprises such as GameStop, Dell, Best Buy and Lenovo as well as universities such as Ohio State, Syracuse and North Carolina. Their ggLeap product has over 60 million hours of usage by over two million unique gamers on tens of thousands of public gaming screens inside centers worldwide. Also, they bought Helix esports. Helix eSports owns five esports centers, including two of the five largest centers in the US, where they deliver world-class customer service, esports programming and gaming infrastructure. ALSO, they bought Esports Gaming League (EGL). HAS OVER 350K registered gamers. "EGL is a great addition to our growing operations and further strengthens our ability to execute on our three-pillar strategy," commented Grant Johnson, CEO of Esports Entertainment Group. "EGL technology underpins the esports programs for some of the world's best-known sports franchises, including the LA Kings, Philadelphia Eagles, and Arsenal Football Club. We plan to build on this strong foundation moving forward, driving near-term revenue growth and long-term shareholder value improvement." You see the trend, and there is more companies than I listed purchased in the past twelve months. Another thing to consider: -$4.3 Billion in Bets Placed on Super Bowl LV Online bets skyrocketing up by 63% with no signs of slowing -36 million more Americans can now legally bet compared to one year ago, with the addition of Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Montana, Tennessee, Virginia and Washington, DC. How does this translate to this company? People are showing a willingness to bet and it's available to a wider audience than ever before. Here is what I posted before: Business: egaming platform for gambling and tournaments. They also have other gambling functions, I believe egames you can gamble on is something they just bought (lucky dino). They also partnered with the Philadelphia eagles to provide esport tournaments, last month I believe, first partnership with a professional team and an egaming gambling site(this was prior to SKLZ). More partnerships could lead to growth as no other professional franchises have a partnership yet for tournaments. Financials: heavy dilution this past year, just started generating revenue in Q3, negative net income. The company they just bought is internet gambling site they just bought had 21M in revenue last year, est 28M for 2021. Company has very low debt, biggest liability is warrant liability of a few million. 8M of cash on hand, could get through at least 2 quarters without any additional positive cash flow (potentially some more dilution i would imagine). Small institutional ownership (1%) but large insider ownership (35%) Financials drop Feb 20th, so some DD on this let me know what you think. This company is worth around 150M(on 2/8), for comparison draftkings is over 46B and cathie wood also entered this sector buying draftkings so this could be on her list also.
Once again, the Calvary comes to the rescue. Americans can now heave a sigh of relief after months of having to watch their fate hang in the balance as both Democrats and Republicans sparred over stimulus. After foot-dragging and name-calling for several months, Congress decided to approve a $600 stimulus package. However, the incoming Biden administration has promised an additional $1,400 making the total of $2000 in stimulus to be received by Americans. As expected, some of that money would find its way into the stock market. The explosion of retail trading made possible by apps such as Robinhood and Etoro has meant that more people can trade in stocks for zero or little commission. Flush with cash from the government, people are trying to the stock market to increase their money. Based on the prevailing macro-economic conditions, financial valuation, and social trends, we have compiled a list of stocks you should be spending your $2000 stimmy on. DraftKings As more states become amiable towards online gambling, one of the stocks which would benefit from expected legislation would be DraftKings. The expanding legalization of digital sports betting is an emerging trend. The November election results showed voters in several states largely approved ballot measures that legalized sports betting and other gaming expansion measures. On the revenue side, DraftKings saw a 98% year-over-year surge to $132.8 million in the latest quarter, reported on Nov. 13. In the quarter, the company raised its full-year 2020 revenue range to $540 million-$560 million, which equates to 25%-30% annual revenue growth. DraftKings also introduced 2021 revenue guidance of $750 million to $850 million, which equates to 45% year-over-year growth using the midpoints. The resumption of major sports such as the NBA, MLB, and the NHL in the third quarter, as well as the start of the NFL season, has generated tremendous customer engagement and revenue which implies that this stock would definitely see some significant upside. Square 2020 was a very good year for Square. The company’s share price soared above 250% last year and was one of the pandemic winners in the market. Given the company’s fundamentals, Square's stock price will repeat the type of growth it saw in 2020. The services that Square provides -- particularly its Cash App, which allows people to send and receive money without physical contact -- have become more necessary during these times of social distancing and working from home. Revenue for the Cash App was up a whopping 574% year over year in the third quarter. The company is also invested in bitcoin having out in seed capital in acquiring bitcoin. With bitcoin estimated to cross the $40,000 mark and possibly running as far as $146,000, this would shore up the company’s reserves. GM One reason why investors have been wary of the EV sector is the mounting debt and huge cash burn. This has made investors question the profitability of stocks in the electric vehicle space. With more EV stocks coming through the market through SPACS, investors are already mulling the idea that this may be a bubble. However, one company that many believe to have potential in the EV space is GM. Apart from having the infrastructure necessary to build cars, the company is can leverage its brand to ensure loyalty from customers. In addition, while other EV stocks such as Tesla and NIO may be fully stretched, share prices of General Motors are cheap, plus the company is been raking in profits. In November, GM announced it plans to invest $27 billion in EV and autonomous vehicles through 2025. GM also plans to release 30 EV models globally by 2025. For comparison, Tesla currently has exactly four EV models. Earlier this week, the company signed a deal with Microsoft for its autonomous vehicles. GM continues to execute well on its Core and Future businesses and remains one of the best-positioned companies in our coverage over the long run. The stock is a good buy for the long haul. AMD As the digitalization of the world continues at an astronomic pace, microchips would continue to play a more prominent role. Already, there is a shortage of chips worldwide which means demand and prices would surge. One company poised to benefit from this growing demand is AMD. The company has managed to chip away at Intel's CPU dominance thanks to its superior product line, which is based on a smaller manufacturing node, allowing it to deliver better computing performance and reduce power consumption. The use of chips would continue to grow as more people are drawn to cryptocurrency mining, online gaming, and data center storage. AMD was one of the biggest winners in2020, and the trend is expected to continue well into this year. It is also one stock that may not be affected by the rotation into value as microchips would continue to be in demand. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor is a dedicated foundry that manufactures semiconductors for other companies. It aims to lead in both semiconductor technology and manufacturing, providing an open collaboration platform to build enduring trust with its customers. The core strategy of Taiwan Semiconductor is its flexible business model. TSM does not need to design its own chips and prove its performance against the competitors; it only has to provide the technology and base for producers looking to make the best and fastest chips suited to their products' needs. By maintaining high-quality manufacturing processes and offering a collaborative platform to its customers, Taiwan Semiconductor ensures that it caters to producers across the spectrum even as technology rapidly evolves. The company has experienced strong growth: From 2015 to 2019, net revenue increased by a solid 26.9%, while net income increased 12.7%. However, as smart technology has become ever more central to lives the company's growth has begun to heat up. In Q3 2020, the company boosted its net revenue by 21.6% year over year, while net income increased by 35.9%. ETSY Etsy provides an online e-commerce platform where creators of arts and crafts, vintage items, and other unique goods go to sell their products. Etsy has something that many high-growth companies don't -- a profitable business model. It boasts a trailing-12-month operating margin of 16%, making this unique online marketplace a buy today even at its premium valuation. It has outmaneuvered eBay (EBAY), avoided the Amazon (AMZN) crush, and dodged competition from Overstock.com (OSTK) and Wayfair (W). When it reported third-quarter results on Oct. 28, Etsy reported a 128% leap in revenue to $451 million, well above Wall Street estimates of $412.7 million. Adjusted earnings came in at 70 cents, vs. estimates of 57 cents. In addition, gross merchandise sales jumped 119% to $2.6 billion. Sunpower Interest in renewable energy sources has soared immensely and continues to rise with each passing day. Two key forces are behind this surge: Increased awareness and urgency to address climate change, and falling costs of generation using renewables. Among renewable sources, solar energy looks most promising, due to its more predictable generation pattern. Solar's share in electricity generation is expected to rise from roughly 3% currently to more than 20% by 2050. SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) is one stock poised to benefit from these trends. With a huge government push, California leads the way in solar adoption. Still, only 9% of homes in California have solar installations, representing a huge untapped market. In the new homes segment, SunPower has headway, having already worked with 18 of the top 20 builders in California. The company captures more than half of California's new homes market. Its low-cost model positions it well to compete on pricing. The company can leverage its vast customer base to sell its storage products. Moreover, its leading position in the commercial and California's new homes market provide SunPower an edge over others in these segments. PLUG Plug power provides hydrogen fuel cell turnkey solutions to electric mobility and stationary power markets. The company continues innovating end-to-end hydrogen fuel solutions by harnessing its unique capabilities and is the largest buyer of liquid hydrogen in North America. Though the company has not posted any profit, many hedge funds are bullish on the stock, with analysts having high recommendations. The company’s $1.5bn deal with South Korean conglomerate SK Group into American hydrogen company has certainly drawn a lot of attention, with many investors gauging the company’s profitability. Plug Power’s core business is providing fuel cell-powered forklifts for commercial customers. However, it has expanded to hydrogen production following its acquisition of two hydrogen companies. These acquisitions expand the plug’s addressable market which has already exceeded $30 billion. The resulting vertical integration of the acquisitions makes Plug Power an even stronger company as can now provide the hydrogen that powers its vehicles. This definitely allows Plug to leverage on its already existing customer base which includes some of the best companies in the country. Plug Power raised its 2024 guidance to $1.2 billion in revenue and $200 million in operating income. Shares of PLUG have risen by 111% in the last month. Tesla Returning to the green-energy theme, Tesla is one stock that has significant upside. The company is positioned to benefit from the clean energy drive of the Biden administration. Apart from that, Tesla is the leader in its sector and continues to increase its delivery numbers. Tesla is now the most valuable auto company in the world. It has recently surpassed Facebook (FB) by market capitalization. The stock has recently received upgrades from analysts and if the EV market continues to evolve, Tesla would continue to be in the pole position, which gives it significant market share and of course revenue. GrowGeneration Corp. For those looking at balance sheets and income statements, GrowGeneration Corp is one highly profitable marijuana stock to watch in 2021. The company has the largest chain of specialty hydroponic and organic garden centers in the U.S. with 36 storefront locations. In essence, the company supplies products necessary for growing cannabis and works closely with major marijuana companies in the U.S. market. Shares of Grow Generation returned a whopping 880.98% in 2020, posting the fastest-growing quarterly results in the industry. It is expected that the company would continue its momentum this year. The shares of the company have so far risen by 20% this year. Additionally, the company continued strategic acquisition and expansion plans in the quarter, giving GrowGen more growth potential for 2021. It was easily one of the best performing cannabis stocks for 2020. In essence, GRWG stock showed greater market stability than other pot stocks in the U.S. in 2020. Thanks for reading! Checkout Afroxyz's page for more.
So you want to gamble: Some high-reward long term picks
Hey everyone, after the meme stock fiasco I wanted to create a post to help out newer investors that want to get into some stock "gambling". I will preface this by saying I am an investor in all of these companies, percentage allocation in my portfolio is going to be listed next to each stock. My biggest point I hope you take away is these stocks are a MINIMUM 6 month hold if you want to see any real return. I will be holding these for at least 52 weeks, most likely longer. The market is not a casino. You can gain generational wealth but ONLY through making the right picks and holding them for a long time. Do not place any cash you know you will potentially need access to. These companies are picks I believe to have a solid product/idea/vision and are worth a bet with my hard-earned money. I'm not an expert but I have been in the market for five years and have learned a little bit along the way. Any questions/advice/comments will be interacted with in the comments as I want to learn from this subreddit. Here are the picks... SENSONICS HOLDINGS - $SENS (4.3% of portfolio)
Some DD in this thread from two weeks ago. Diabetics is a huge sector of the market and SENS has the superior product to existing Dexcom and Abbott. Their product is improving and gaining some traction from healthcare providers.
Sports Betting/iGaming ETF - $BETZ (1.2% of portfolio)
Gambling on gambling stocks :) Sports betting's outlook is looking promising as the prohibition cuts back. Major holdings are Draftkings and Penn National (Huge casino chain with sportsbook operations).
XPENG Inc - $XPEV (2% of portfolio)
China is pumping out EV's and Chinese consumers are purchasing at record levels. XPENG differentiates with smart technology and robotic designs, looking to capture the ever growing market of wealthy Chinese buyers. Great vehicle delivery numbers means I think they are just getting started.
Compass Pathways - $CMPS(4% of portfolio)
First psilocybin therapy to reach the market. Only company in the US with FDA approved trials on psilocybin to treat depression. Biggest company in the space and furthest lead in the US (biggest and most restrictive market). If you want to bet on the psychedelic space as a whole, this is the first company that will be relevant in the US (if approved). I'm a fan of some other stocks in the sector but they aren't allowed in this sub.
Hims and Hers ($HIMS) - (4% of portfolio)
Online telehealth for previously unrepresented services (Erectile dysfunction, hair loss, skincare). They sell their own pills and contract their own medical officials. Everything is done in house, leading to great profits. Concerns about other companies doing the same thing are valid, but don't underestimate their value as a brand and platform.
Should I buy: Physical Silver? Call Options? Both? A Brief Overview and Silver Squeeze Strategy
I’ve seen a lot of discussion here of what is the best way to gain exposure to the silver squeeze, and a lot of general confusion from people. Hoping to clear somethings up.
Physical Silver is the Best Choice
Why? Because YOU own it! Simple as that. If shit hits the fan tomorrow (e.g. internet crashes, electric grid goes down, etc.), you have REAL money in your pocket. You can do whatever you want with it, and don't have to rely on a third-party to delivemake good on their promise (do you trust banks?). Additionally, physical silver is finite, and more can not be created out of thin air (as is the case with paper silver). Ok, but what if I can't buy silver right now? Aren't all the bullion dealers sold out? What can I do in the meantime while they restock!? Fear not. Not only is there another way for you to gain exposure to the great silver squeeze, but it actually gives YOU (the retail investor) greater power in the market against the big banks. What is this great power I speak of? Why, they are call options my son.
Call Options: Power to the People!
If you're not familiar with call options, I suggest you read up on them more. I won't go into great detail, but a call option gives you the right (but not the obligation) to purchase 100 shares of an underlying asset for a specific price at some point in the future. As an example, iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) might cost $25 per share. While a call option to buy SLV may cost $100. So if you had $100 to play around with you could buy 4 shares of SLV outright, or you could buy an option which would grant you control of 100 shares. Make sense? Now you can see why call options enable retail investors like you and me to actually have an even playing field against the big banks.
What has the Biggest Impact on Price? Call Options!
As mentioned, I think owning physical silver is by far the best method. However, call options have the greatest impact on the price of silver. Why? Meet the Gamma-Squeeze. The gamma-squeeze is not something new, but historically it has not been feasible for retail investors to accomplish due to the high costs associated with trading options. Around 2019 brokers started offering commission free options, which changed the game. A gamma-squeeze occurs when a market maker hedges options he just sold you.
What's a Market Maker? He's my Bookie!
When you buy an option, you are most likely buying it from a market maker who takes the opposite side of your trade. The easiest way to think of a market maker is to compare them to a bookie (whether it be Draftkings, or the shady guy named Vinny at your local dive bar). If you bet $100 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Superbowl, your bookie takes the opposite end of that bet (i.e. he makes money if the Chiefs lose). However, your bookie likely doesn't care one way or the other who wins the Superbowl, because if he did care he'd be a gambler, not a bookie. His goal is to collect an even amount of bets on both teams, which offset each other, and then just take a fee for his services. THIS IS WHAT MARKET MAKERS DO! However, when you buy a call option (which gives you the right to buy 100 shares of the underlying) the bookie market maker must go out and buy some amount of shares to offset his risk of prices increasing. How does the market maker know how many shares he needs to buy to offset his risk? Enter delta.
Delta - Not the Airline
Delta, gamma, what is this guy talking about? I know they might sound a little confusing, but they're known as the Greeks (not the fun type that own diners and drink ouzo, but the mathematical type that can make you money). All you need to know is that delta let's the market maker know how many shares he needs to purchase to hedge his position (aka delta hedging). You can look up the delta of a particular option on an options chain. So if you buy a call option with a delta of 0.5, the market maker must go out an buy 50 shares of the underlying just to reduce his risk (100 shares per contract x 0.5 delta = 50 shares to hedge). You are in essence, forcing the market maker to purchase, which in turn drives up the demand for shares, increasing price. This also causes the delta to increase in value, and creates a vicious feedback loop where price keeps increasing exponentially upwards. 🚀
Misconception of Citadel Owning SLV
You've probably seen posts claiming Citadel owns SLV and is pushing it on WallStreetBets in order to trick people. In fact, there's one such post here claiming Citadel is the 5th largest owner of SLV and stands to profit if you buy it. The misconception is that people don't realize Citadel is a market maker. In fact, they are the largest market maker in options in the U.S. Most of these people spreading FUD don't even know what a market maker is... but YOU do! If Citadel sells call options, it buys shares of SLV to hedge its risk. That way it doesn't matter if SLV goes up or down, they make money from the bid/ask spreads charged. In fact, if SLV was squeezed, you could expect to see Citadel's SLV holdings increase in order to hedge the call options they sold. This is the gamma-squeeze, its when your enemy (the financial institutions) actually become your ally, because of their need to hedge.
Why SLV? Isn't Paper Silver Fake? Aren't We Just Playing Their Game?
I agree that paper silver is not the best, and the iShares Silver Trust can lie (and probably has) about the amount of actual silver in their vaults. However, all shares issued by the trust MUST be backed by physical silver (per their prospectus). If the demand for $SLV was well above normal levels, it is likely the Trust couldn't keep up the charade for too long, and would have to ultimately go out on to the market and purchase at least some portion of that physical silver, thus driving up prices. While not ideal for the individual holder and investor when compared to the benefits of physical silver, the iShares Silver Trust's ($SLV) benefits lie in its ability to offer retail speculators increased leverage in the form of call option contracts. So, in conclusion, my opinion is to:
Buy and Hold Physical Silver. Trade $SLV.
Would you like a shmoke and a shtack? \** DISCLAIMER **** This is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. Information here is solely for educational purposes, and should not be interpreted as an investment recommendation or as a call to action. You should always perform your own due diligence, and not solely rely on information provided to you on message boards from strangers on the internet. \** DISCLAIMER ****
Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, January 26, 2021. What an insane day!!!
PsychoMarket Recap - Tuesday, January 26, 2021 Stocks were mostly flat as market participants digest the latest round of corporate earnings and continued to monitor the policy implications of the new Democratic administration in the White House. Since his administration took over, market participants have been looking at President Biden to push for Congress to prioritize his new stimulus package. However, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has already pushed back against Biden’s proposal, according to a report by Bloomberg. Passing the new proposal after more than $3 trillion in stimulus was passed last year was always going to be a challenge. Today, President Biden said he is open to negotiating the eligibility requirements for the $1,400 stimulus checks in the bill. In terms of timing, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer siad he aims to advance the next round of stimulus by mid-March, according to a report by Bloomberg. “I anticipate the stimulus bill to get passed, but I think it is going to likely take several weeks for that to happen. We have a divided Congress, a $1.9 trillion proposed bill after a $900 billion bill that just went through in December, so I don’t think the $1.9 trillion is likely to even be passed,” said Colleen MacPherson, Penobscot Investment Management director of research. We agree. While it is unlikely the bill passes in its current state, we expect some form of substantial stimulus to be passed in the not-too-distant future. US scientists are preparing to upgrade Covid-19 vaccines to address variants of the coronavirus now circulating in the United States, according to Dr. Fauci. At the same time, Moderna said that though its Covid vaccine worked against the variants, the company was developing a new form of the vaccine to be used as a booster shot. Highlights
On our Gappers Watchlist we said we would be getting into AMC. Very happy to say that at the time of writing the stock spiked up more than 40% after-hours!!!! Another heavily-shorted stock that is very popular on WallStreetBets
Wow, just wow! The story with Gamestop (GME) keeps going, stock almost 100% up today again! The stock is up more than 300% in the last week alone! The short-squeeze by retail traders in popular subreddit WallStreetBets continues, pushing the stock to never before seen territory. Insane, never seen anything like this before in the market.
Notable earnings today after close: Raytheon (RTX), General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Twitter (TWTR) acquired newsletter service company Revue
Goldman Sachs says Draftkings (DKNKG) and Penn Gaming (PENN) have a "high likelihood of sustained outperformance, especially as states like New York, Florida, and Texas consider allowing online betting, in part to close budget gaps with the tax revenue.” We’ve personally really like Draftkings and have been invested in it for a while
Penn National Gaming (PENN) target raised by Goldman Sachs from $86 to $124 at Buy
Analog Devices (ADI) target raised by Barclays from $150 to $170 at Overweight. Stock currently around $153.
Aurinia Pharma (AUPH) target raised by Cantor Fitzgerald from $27 to $34 at Overweight. Stock currently around $19
Broadcom (AVGO) target raised by Barclays from $450 to $500 at Overweight. Stock currently around $465
Anthem (ANTM) target raised by Cowen from $330 to $360 at Outperform. Stock currently around $315
Chegg (CHGG) target raised by Keycorp from $100 to $120 at Overweight. Stock currently around $96
ETSY target raised by Jeffries from $205 to $245 at Buy. Stock currently around $209
Lam Research (LRCX) target raised by Barclays from $405 to $600 at Overweight. Stock currently around $567
Materion (MTRN) target raised by Keycorp from $68 to $80 at Overweight. Stock currently around $67
Nvidia (NVDA) target raised by Barclays from $550 to $600 at Overweight. Stock currently around $546
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) with two target raises. Stock currently around $175
Barclays from $150 to $200
Wells Fargo from $180 to $200
Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) target rasied by SVB Leerink from $41 to $54 at Outperform. Stock currently around $38
Chewy crushes earnings reports, while GameStop disappoints. What is the latest news on Apple and the new AirPods Max? Should we buy AirBNB or DoorDash when they launch tomorrow? Let’s talk about this and more about the stock market Hey everyone and Good Morning! So, let’s start with the recap of yesterday as we saw the Nasdaq Composite leading the way up half a percent, the SP500 up .28%, both of them closing at new record highs with the Dow Jones also up .35% to close Tuesday. The VIX also showed a steady decline through the day as it dropped almost 3%. This moves in the market were caused by the latest hopes for a stimulus deal to be agreed on by the end of current session in congress as there seems to be a lot of ground on which parties can agree on. Things have gotten worse in the economy since this hole stimulus talk has been going around, so, if both parties would have been more willing to give up some ground, people would have already gotten more support and we would probably be talking about other bills or measures that would have helped even more. So, maybe this latest Mnuchin proposal with maybe minor tweaks would be the best chance of anything happening by the end of this year. We saw more companies advancing yesterday as over 3 thousand companies were moving up, continuing the huge bull run started in November as more than 84% of companies are moving above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. The best gaining sectors yesterday were Energy and Health Care while Real Estate and Utilities lagged behind as Large-Cap Growth companies were the only company factor analysis that lost ground yesterday, with small-caps, especially small-cap growth companies largely outperforming the markets. You can see in this HEAT MAP that there were gains to be made yesterday in a lot of parts of the stock market, with only a few big red spots on the map. Today we will get some numbers on the November Job openings, MBA mortgage applications and Petroleum inventories. While we got some earnings yesterday from Chewy which dazzled again in earnings with the only small miss coming in net sales per customer, but as the number of customers keeps increasing, this might continue to go down, as not every pet owner spends the same amount of big money on pets. The company reported an EBITDA of $5.5M vs a loss of over $9M expected with the gross margin increasing to over 25% while also giving great guidance for Q4 of $1.94B to $1.96B vs less than $1.8B expected by analysts. The company also turned around to a positive cash flow of over $30M. I really like this company and I expected it to be a good own at least for the next quarter until they reach more hard earnings comps next year. Meanwhile, as I expected GameStop had another bad quarter despite beating some earnings estimates with a smaller loss than expected, the revenue still continued to drop over 30% on a year over year basis while comps where even worse missing the expectations by quite a margin. Though e-commerce sales rose by more than 250% in Q3, this did not offset the comparable store sales. Margins also declined with hardware margins being the biggest reasons why. I think this company has a very though challenge on its hands with e-commerce being such a though place to compete in, I think the shift to online has been delayed for this company and I think it will struggle to survive, even though it might see a boost next quarter from the sales of the new gaming consoles that were released last month from both Sony and Microsoft. GME EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS I wouldn’t touch this stock as I think there are far better plays out there than betting on this struggling company. The only company that I am interested today which will release earnings results is ADOBE which is expected to have the best results ever for the company with an increase of over 12% in both EPS and Revenues. Last go around despite posting great results, the stock fell more than 4% in September and have just recovered to that price point. I expect it this time to go higher and stay that way if they manage to deliver the best quarter on the books. Meanwhile DoorDash is pricing its initial public offering at over 100$/share which I believe is ridiculous, and it is an flat out joke of a valuation, this company has benefited a ton from this economy and still, this valuation implies that they will have over 50% of the total addressable market not in the US, but in the WORLD in the next couple of years, I don’t think this is a good investment opportunity, they will have increasing competition that offer the same thing for free or cheaper, this is a very though business to try and take over as one single company. People will also be way more likely to start going to restaurants maybe not in 2021 but for sure starting 2022 or whenever the vaccines are widely available in the entire world. I wouldn’t touch this stock at such high valuations, especially over 110$, even if I was looking for short-term gains which might end up being the case, I think there are better opportunities out there. In contrast to DoorDash, I might be interested to buy some AirBNB if the price is right after the IPO, I think it will have a much better future, as personally I really like to rent out apartments or homes whenever I go on a vacation rather than a traditional hotel. And even though it might have a tough Q4 and Q1 next year, I expect by Q2 next year more people will be vaccinated, so more people will start and go out and travel, and with especially low comps for next year as bookings are way down in 2020 this might make the company look much more attractive by this time next year. So, between DoorDash and AirBNB, I clearly like AirBNB a whole damn lot more. In other IPO news, RBNHD is expected to go public as soon as Q1 next year as they seek a valuation of over $20B. Some other Boeing came for companies like Boeing which made its first 737 MAX delivery since the ban ended, as it is expected to start rolling out deliveries and upgrades for current planes at a very good rate with more good news coming from the UK which will suspend the tariffs imposed on US Goods. While PENN gaming ran to an all-time high yesterday after news that sports betting may be launched in Michigan as early as six weeks from now, as legalization of gambling is moving faster and faster in the US, this also bolds well for DraftKings and other gambling stocks. Also, ETSY keeps getting upgrades from analysts as they are expected to have a great Q4 suggested from the most recent November sales data. And finally let’s talk about Apple, as they just revealed the new AirPods Max headphone yesterday, with a huge price tag of 549$, this seemed to gain a pretty bad reaction from consumers as they complained about the huge price tag with competitors like Bose and others selling similar headphones for 350$ or less. These headphones, also have a bigger price tag than even the new PS5 videogame console so we will have to wait and see if this is a successful product from Apple, I think they have gone a little overboard with the price, but rich people do tend to pay a premium for brand names. This can also be seen in the latest analyst call from JPMorgan as customers appear to favor high end models as delivery times have been increasing for the 12 Pro and 12 PRO MAX. On the better side of things for Apple, the Fitness+ service is expected to launch on the 14th of December and it will cost $9.99/month or $79.99$/year. I expect this to be a better success for the company and to drive an even more stable increase of revenues, as subscription-based revenues are better than one-time sales. So, I still like this company the most in the long-term and it might see a spike in the near future, especially moving closer to Q4 results and earnings. Apple is still the biggest position in my portfolio and I am not planning on changing that anytime soon. Good luck to everyone in the stock market as the futures are mixed while writing this post with the DOW and SP500 gaining ground while the Nasdaq futures are just down for the moment. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time!
26 Capital Corp (ADERU) is a new at-NAV SPAC with world-leading online gambling expertise - worth a bet
EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake tl;dr At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
+++++++ Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood. (My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.) As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research +++++++
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors". I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
CEO Jason Ader has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm) Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015. Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any) Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??). Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
Rafi Ashkenazi One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
Joseph Kaminkow Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
Greg Lyss This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky. The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
Thesis / potential targets Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype. This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.” “I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
Potential upside This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels. There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
Potential Downside
Ader has been vocal that he thinks US online betting is overvalued and in a bubble - why is he starting his own SPAC in the space then? Does he just want to cash in while the hype is at all-time high or does he have a legitimate business goal?
If he just wants to dump a part of Playtech which he does not like onto retail investors, this is a bad deal.
Other targets could be e.g. hotel industry or other leisure sector which would be zero sexiness to retail. Given Ashkenazi and Kaminkow's background this seems unlikely though
Usual SPAC caveats apply about potential difficulty finding a target, locking up your money for unspecified period of time, and the fact I may have completely misread the potential and my above thesis might be totally wrong
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