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$FUBO DD - Connecting the dots, this thing is going to be a MONSTER.
From u/heardme Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity for us. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. Fubo has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html
Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales:
Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million.
Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million.
Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year.
Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours.
Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year.
Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million.
Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers.
It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Jan 25, 2021 and Feb 03, 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop soon. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a low volume selloff Friday. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected late January to mid-February). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute.
$FUBO DD - Connecting the dots, this thing is going to be a MONSTER.
Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity for us. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. Fubo has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html
Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales:
Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million.
Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million.
Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year.
Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours.
Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year.
Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million.
Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers.
It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Jan 25, 2021 and Feb 03, 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop soon. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a low volume selloff Friday. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected late January to mid-February). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute.
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015 and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. FuboTv has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales: Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million. Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million. Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year. Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours. Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year. Q4 Preliminary Results: https://ir.fubo.tv/news/news-details/2021/fuboTV-Announces-Preliminary-Fourth-Quarter-2020-Revenue-and-Subscriber-Growth/default.aspx Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million. Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers. It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Feb-March 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60, this is minimum upside. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop even further and it has not even begun. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a little bit of rally due to GME situation. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected Feb-March). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
<46% area ER and urgent care visits were adults (age 18-44) for flu symptoms. Influenza A is the dominant strain. ------- Total Hospitalized: 9394*, ⬆️53 from 9341 (2/9)
ICU: 3470, ⬆️24 from 3446 (2/9)
Intubated: 1757, ⬆️11 from 1746 (2/9)
Deceased while hospitalized: 2928, ⬆️24 from 2904 (2/9)
*Hospitalized excludes deaths ------- Total Deaths: 3525, ⬆️16 from 3509 (2/9) (2240 with underlying medical conditions) Not mutually exclusive conditions:
Hypertension 1426⬆️
Immunocompromised 113
Chronic Heart Disease 685⬆️
Chronic Liver Disease 75⬆️
Chronic Kidney Disease 482⬆️
Diabetes 1052⬆️
Neurologic/Neurodevelopmental 273⬆️
Chronic Lung Disease 533⬆️
Historically Healthy 217
Other 830⬆️
------- Positive Results Age Range Breakdown:
0-4 4614⬆️13 2.10%
5-17 20958⬆️73 9.52%
18-24 27920⬆️72 12.70%
25-49 100820⬆️240 45.80%
50-64 42512⬆️120 19.30%
65+ 23328⬆️84 10.60%
Unknown 52 0.02%
MIS-C Cases 48⬆️2 ------- School Cases (2/10) Total: 836; Past 2wks: 80
Staff 458; 34
Students 378; 46
Public: 463; 36
Staff 321; 23
Students 142; 13
Private: 373; 44
Staff 137; 11
Students 236; 33
------- Hospitalized Age Range Breakdown:
0-4 69 0.60%
5-17 131⬆️2 1.10%
18-24 284⬆️3 2.30%
25-49 2898⬆️9 23.50%
50-64 3398⬆️18 27.60%
65+ 5540⬆️45 45.00%
Unknown 2 0.00%
------- Deaths Age Range Breakdown:
0-4 0 0.00%
5-17 3 0.10%
18-24 6 0.20%
25-49 234⬆️1 6.60%
50-64 678⬆️4 19.20%
65+ 2604⬆️11 73.90%
Test result average turnaround time is 24- to 48-hours with UMC/SNHD sites. CVS is averaging 2 to 3+ days. ------- Expect weekend delay in case reports. "Daily case counts reflect newly reported cases and may represent cases that were tested in the preceding days, which could significantly impact the count on days when a relatively large number of laboratory reports arrive in one day." SNHD confirmed they are not counting COVID-19 antibody positives into their COVID-19 positive case counts. Majority of information is pulled from Southern Nevada Health District's COVID-19 dashboard and historical reports. Our positives are under 1000/day, our recovery rate remains high (90+% range), our hospitalizations remain steady (under 500). SNHD dashboard has new "Place of Possible Exposure" tab, listing cumulative and last 30 days cases in establishments. Top 10 Places of Possible Exposure (Last 30 days)
Other (3643)
Food establishment (2178)
Work (1599)
Grocery store (1534)
Hotel/Motel (1120)
Medical Facility (1120)
Casino (824)
School (383)
Air travel (312)
General store/shop (271)
Nevada Hospital Association 2/8 report states: Hospitalizations improved over the weekend. Case counts are below last week's peak. All trajectories are in decline. Hospital capacity are within capable occupancy rates. PPE, supplies, and equipment are in good conditions. Majority of hospitalized CV19+ are in the 50+ age groups. Protect our vulnerable and continue to practice good hygiene habits, including wearing a mask to prevent asymptomatic spread as mandated by Governor Sisolak (onus is on businesses, which we want to keep open, but Metro will not enforce it; OSHA is responsible for mask enforcement by fining the business). To report a non-compliant business through the state, call (702) 486-9020. Doctors are doing convalescent plasma therapy treatments and are seeking plasma donors to help those in need. One plasma donation can help five patients. Blood donors can get the antibodies testing done for free through Vitalant. 54 therapeutics are still underway to treat COVID-19 worldwide. US FDA emergency use authorized treatments are: Remdesivir, Dexamethaaone, Regeneron's antibody cocktail (REGEN-COV2), and Eli Lilly's antibody treatment: baricitinib - a combination of Veklury and the JAK inhibitor Olumiant. Nevada is approved for the 24-hour test procedure. FDA approved a 30-minute and a 5-minute testing procedures. UNLV provides the main walk-in COVID-19 testing services. The first at-home testing kit was FDA approved on 5/15/2020. If you live within a 1-mile range of the Wal-Mart on Craig Rd, you qualify for a drone-delivered test kit to your front or back door. This is while supplies last, if anyone has info that they stopped providing this, let me know. Some testing sites require an appointment; some may need to be scheduled by your primary care physician or another authorized provider. City Serve coordinates testing sites throughout the valley. Testing is only on Saturdays. Schedule a no-cost test here: https://cityservelv.org/ UMC, E7 Health and local laboratories are able to conduct FDA approved antibodies testing. Cost is normally $149+, but your insurance may reimburse you for the test. Check your coverage first. Vitalant/Universal Blood Services will do a free antibody test for any eligible donors. UMC is able to process 4,000 tests per day. It is encouraged for anyone to be tested. Symptoms are no longer required. Appointment is preferred, walk-up testing is available. UMC's testing sites are inside Stan Fulton Building and Cashman Field Center. They can do 1,200 tests per day, Tues-Sat 8am to 4pm. No symptoms, insurance, or citizenship required for testing; starting 1/11 requesting insurance coverage. Schedule an appointment online through UMC's website (www.umcsn.com). Sites are walk-in, appointment or walk-up. Both sites now use the self-nasal swab test kits. Families can be tested as one household together. UMC's COVID-19 test guidelines:
After positive test, no follow-up test is needed after 7-day isolation period asymptomatic; or 10-day with symptoms and no fever after 24 hours.
If employer requires a negative test in order for employee to return to work, then employer provides the test
Guidelines are to save test kits for those exhibiting symptoms. See all testing locations on the SNHD website. All CVS pharmacy drive-thru locations can also testing, no cost should be associated. Validate with your insurance. If no insurance, there should be no charge. Requires an appointment. FDA officially grants emergency-use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (12/11/2020). Distribution of vaccine began (12/14/2020). The first vaccine was tested 3/16/2020. More than 160 vaccine prototypes are being tested. Clinical trials of the vaccine were administered. Phase 1 & 2 of trial vaccines completed with positive antibody results. Phase 3 clinical trials started with 30k volunteers; test size of 3k vaccine trials in the UK have completed. Africa started their vaccine trials on 06/24/2020. Of the 100+ vaccines submitted, 22 have made the cut to go through testing and final FDA approval phases (5/15/2020 briefing). The front runner vaccine conducted human trails (Phase 3 aka final stage). AstraZeneca has prepared to produce 2 billion doses. Pfizer claims their vaccine is more than 95% effective. Moderna vaccine claims about 94.5% effective. Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is 70% to 90% effective based on dosage program (single dose versus duo dose). US government has been working with four vaccine manufacturers who have completed final phases of vaccine trials, all prepared for massive vaccine output. Vaccine distribution has been revised two "lanes" for vaccination: Healthcare front line/essential workers and general population, with emphasis on health conditions. NV CV19 vaccine playbook v3.pdf To sign up for vaccine notification when you're eligible: NV CV19 Vaccine Interest Form. More info on where to get the vaccine. Total doses administered: 366,333 (2/10)
1st dose stage: 291,370
2nd dose stage: 73,088
Total doses received to distribute: 521,200 Source Cashman Center and Las Vegas Convention Center are prepared to become vaccine mega centers, to distribute 40k to 45k shots per week (about 4k per day per site). Regional vaccine pop-up sites will be throughout the valley to provide access to those wanting the vaccine. Visit SNHD site for eligibility and to book your appointment online. Seniors who need assistance scheduling for their COVID-19 vaccine, call 1-800-401-0946, 8am to 8pm, 7 days a week. Las Vegas Convention Center will be the main 2nd dose distribution center starting Tues., Feb. 2nd. Open Tues-Sat, Central Hall, for both Moderna & Pfizer. If you didn't receive a notification to get your 2nd dose, call (702) 759-0850 to make your 2nd dose appointment. UMC's vaccine mega center will be at Encore, near the parking lot of their convention center area. They are prepared to distribute hundred per day according to the state guidelines. Appointment is required. North Las Vegas residents 70 and older can visit VaxNLV.com to fill out a simple intake form to enroll for vaccinations. Enrollment for these seniors will be open until Friday evening. Immediately after, the City will begin pre-enrollment for the general public. Seniors ages 70 or older who would like a vaccine may also call (702) 342-8417 for additional assistance, though wait times may be significantly longer than using the online, mobile-friendly platform. Remain mindful to give our medical community the ability to focus on those in need of their expertise to survive and combat the virus. For Nevada COVID-19 metrics, with historical spreadsheet and graph data, visit: The Nevada Independent Coronavirus Tracking or check out the link in our side bar.
Not just another HITI / HITIF post... Serious DD incl. valuation analysis
Reposting this DD after it was removed by mods first time around. Potential offending points have been removed. --- Some of the market stats are a little outdated (market cap, current multiples, etc.) but are correct as of Feb-06. This was originally written for another purpose. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the other purpose, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, however, High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more TLDR
Despite the recent rally in stock price, the business remains undervalued on a relative basis versus its peers (analysis in body of post). There is a compelling investment case for High Tide where in my opinion the merits of the investment outweigh the risks. Clearly given the small cap nature of the stock, this is inherently more volatile than larger blue chip stocks and carries with it a degree of risk.
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here? -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
MCAC and Playboy (PLBY) merger. Why I think Playboy has a bigger future.
As I am sure a lot of you know, Mountain Crest Acquisitions (MCAC) are in late-stage talks with playboy to take them public currently at a valuation of ~$425M meaning we should see the MCAC ticket convert to Playboys ticker, PLBY, within a matter of days, if not weeks. A lot of the people I have seen talking about the Playboy acquisition have argued that Playboy is a dying brand and are far beyond their prime, which is no doubt true, in terms of selling sexy magazines that have all but been made redundant by online pornography. However, this company and its newish CEO (of 2017), Ben Kohn, have given it a new lease of life and are changing the globally recognized brand's direction to be more of a lifestyle and sexual wellness brand. They have been seeing huge year on year growth since Kohn's appointment in 2017 across almost all revenue streams, Kohn has been a part of Playboy for many years and initially helped privatize them in the early 2010s. He is highly regarded for his marketing and sales abilities. WHY PLAYBOY? First of all let me offer you CEO Ben Kohn the chance to convince you: Here is his investor presentation.The numbers are extremely impressive. If you would rather hear it from me, for whatever reason, my take is below: For me, one of the most notable things about this deal is its the extremely rare opportunity to buy into one of theworld's most known brands at such a low valuation. How many SPACs currently on the market would you be able to ask your typical man or woman on the street about the company they plan on buying and almost everytime get an answer about who they are and what they do? Playboy had a WHOPPING $3bn annual spend on thier brand across 180 countries worldwide last year! Playboy are taking huge strides moving away from the sex negative and very 20th century ideals they built their original empire off, and closing in on an increasingly empowered and sexually liberated young demographic. The sexual wellness market is seeing massive growth among people both young and old and is expected to reach $125 billion by 2026 with an expected anual growth of 12.1% YoY, now think about the size of this market in context of how many brands do you know that are key players in this sector? It should be somewhat obvious that Playboy is in an extremely unique position to capitalize on its massive recognition in a growing market otherwise lacking recognized leaders, they plan on doing this with a strategy of M&A which are outlined below. First, I will talk about what they are doing now to fit themselves into the market we see today. Playboy has begun a plan to increase growth via acquisitions, and started by buying leading sexual wellness reatilerYandy at the end of 2019, and have driven direct sales up from $3.7M in 1H 2019 to $29.7M in 1H 2020. On top of this, they are working to make their own playboy.com website into a retail destination, and across Yandy and their own store they were seeing 70,000 orders a month with a AOV of $72. During the stock redemption period Stockholders requested redemption of a total of 8,842 shares, less than 0.2% of Mountain Crest’s issued shares. As a result, Mountain Crest anticipates that approximately $58.7 million will be released to PLBY Group immediately following the closing of the transactions, with further PIPE investments of $50 million. Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy, said, “We are delighted with the overwhelming support for this transaction, which at closing is expected to inject more than $100 million of gross proceeds into PLBY Group, so that we can aggressively capitalize on our well-defined and exciting organic and acquisition-led growth plan.”. On top of direct sales increases, Playboy continued to capitalize on their brand recognition by increasing licensing revenues YoY,with ~$400M currently in forward-booked cash flow. Note licensing is one of the most cost-effective way brands can earn revenue, with 80% cost margins and being able to create such licensing demand is a rare feature only attributed to truly globally recognized brands. I read somewhere which I now cannot find that Kohn has said (I am sure somewhat jokingly) that he believes the Playboy Bunny Logo alone is worth a billion dollars, and I can see some truth in it, the Playboy bunny is close to the levels of recognition of the Nike swoosh or the McDonalds M, even among young people who have probably never seen a playboy mag before, myself included (i have never seen it sold in the UK). As breifly mentioned above, playboy Revenues are growing rapidly. 2020 Projected Revenues is expected to be up 75% year over year, and Projected Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be up 112% year over year, they have projected 2021E revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $166.8M and $40.3M, respectively, with an goal of $100M EBITDA by 2026. They already have a number of CBD-based products and have plans in place to grow into the legal marijuana industry when it is eventually legalized at the federal level. They are looking to increase their positions in the gaming industry and have recently opened a poker house in Houston, on top of their London Casino, with further plans to add more casinos in the US, and looking for sports betting partnership opportunities. Playboy are already an established producer of apparel and maintain a realtively large presence within the market, particularly in China, where their items are sold in over 2,500 brick and mortar stores, and 1,000 online stores across the nation. In the western World they are stocked at household retailers such as urban outfitters, and have done many collabs with well regarded and in fashion millenial brands such as Supreme, Anti Social Social Club, and Alpha industries (all 3 of which have seen extraordinary growth among young people all within very short time). For me this stands out massively and shows promise on both sides of the table; These trendy and modern brands want to associate with the Playboy logo and lifestyle, showing a level of interest from consumers, but more importantly it shows that Playboy is tapped in and aware of the youth culture, an area in which they have the potential to capitalise massively on through all of their revenue streams. One of the things i think people are most underestimating about this merger is that the current trajectory Kohn is taking Playboy along is very 2021, and is extremely focused on growth. I believe the brand to be undervalued already, and when taking into consideration the trends in Millenial and Gen Z society, I think this brand is ready to once again become a market leader in its new sectors. A comment I saw on another DD put it well: "If Kylie Jenner thinks its cool, it probably is". It sounds stupid, but the power of social media in conjunction with its recognized logo and brand mean you cannot underestimate this companies value and potential for both short term and long term growth. Coupled with the large cash injection of over $100M and a new focus on M&A, the upside really is potentially enormous. Personally i think it is somewhat criminal this company does not have a current valuation of close to a billion USD considering its recognition, and i think Kohn is the man to enable playboy to capitalise on their extremely unique position in a rapidly growing market. The above stats are all taken from the Playboy investor presentation given by Ben Kohn here,(as said above I would encourage you all to look at this, it is very impressive), and from MCAC press releases that can be found here.
29 influenza-associated hospitalizations and 2 deaths. <41% area ER and urgent care visits were adults (age 18-44) for flu symptoms. Influenza A is the dominant strain. ------- Total Hospitalized: 9474*, ⬆️47 from 9427 (2/11)
ICU: 3516, ⬆️12 from 3504 (2/11)
Intubated: 1784, ⬆️4 from 1780 (2/11)
Deceased while hospitalized: 2975, ⬆️15 from 2960 (2/11)
*Hospitalized excludes deaths ------- Total Deaths: 3600, ⬆️23 from 3577 (2/10) (2282 with underlying medical conditions) Not mutually exclusive conditions:
Hypertension 1456⬆️
Immunocompromised 117
Chronic Heart Disease 696⬆️
Chronic Liver Disease 75
Chronic Kidney Disease 494⬆️
Diabetes 1072⬆️
Neurologic/Neurodevelopmental 282⬆️
Chronic Lung Disease 540⬆️
Historically Healthy 225⬆️
Other 844⬆️
------- Positive Results Age Range Breakdown:
0-4 4631⬆️8 2.09%
5-17 21064⬆️59 9.52%
18-24 28032⬆️57 12.70%
25-49 101233⬆️203 45.80%
50-64 42717⬆️99 19.30%
65+ 23488⬆️80 10.60%
Unknown 50⬇️1 0.02%
MIS-C Cases 48 ------- School Cases (2/12) Total: 839; Past 2wks: 71
Staff 456; 26
Students 383; 45
Public: 463; 31
Staff 321; 18
Students 142; 13
Private: 376; 40
Staff 135; 8
Students 241; 32
------- Hospitalized Age Range Breakdown:
0-4 70⬆️1 0.60%
5-17 132⬆️1 1.10%
18-24 285 2.30%
25-49 2921⬆️12 23.50%
50-64 3423⬆️9 27.60%
65+ 5616⬆️39 45.10%
Unknown 2 0.00%
------- Deaths Age Range Breakdown:
0-4 0 0.00%
5-17 3⬇️1 0.10%
18-24 7⬆️1 0.20%
25-49 239⬆️3 6.60%
50-64 690⬆️3 19.20%
65+ 2661⬆️17 73.90%
Test result average turnaround time is 24- to 48-hours with UMC/SNHD sites. CVS is averaging 2 to 3+ days. ------- "Daily case counts reflect newly reported cases and may represent cases that were tested in the preceding days, which could significantly impact the count on days when a relatively large number of laboratory reports arrive in one day." SNHD confirmed they are not counting COVID-19 antibody positives into their COVID-19 positive case counts. Majority of information is pulled from Southern Nevada Health District's COVID-19 dashboard and historical reports. Our positives are under 1000/day, our recovery rate remains high (90+% range), our hospitalizations remain steady (under 500). SNHD dashboard has new "Place of Possible Exposure" tab, listing cumulative and last 30 days cases in establishments. Top 10 Places of Possible Exposure (Last 30 days) (2/12)
Other (3806)
Food establishment (2295)
Work (1679)
Grocery store (1606)
Hotel/Motel (1165)
Medical Facility (1111)
Casino (856)
School (399)
Air travel (321)
General store/shop (298)
Nevada Hospital Association 2/8 report states: Hospitalizations improved over the weekend. Case counts are below last week's peak. All trajectories are in decline. Hospital capacity are within capable occupancy rates. PPE, supplies, and equipment are in good conditions. Majority of hospitalized CV19+ are in the 50+ age groups. Protect our vulnerable and continue to practice good hygiene habits, including wearing a mask to prevent asymptomatic spread as mandated by Governor Sisolak (onus is on businesses, which we want to keep open, but Metro will not enforce it; OSHA is responsible for mask enforcement by fining the business). To report a non-compliant business through the state, call (702) 486-9020. Doctors are doing convalescent plasma therapy treatments and are seeking plasma donors to help those in need. One plasma donation can help five patients. Blood donors can get the antibodies testing done for free through Vitalant. 54 therapeutics are still underway to treat COVID-19 worldwide. US FDA emergency use authorized treatments are: Remdesivir, Dexamethaaone, Regeneron's antibody cocktail (REGEN-COV2), and Eli Lilly's antibody treatment: baricitinib - a combination of Veklury and the JAK inhibitor Olumiant. Nevada is approved for the 24-hour test procedure. FDA approved a 30-minute and a 5-minute testing procedures. UNLV provides the main walk-in COVID-19 testing services. The first at-home testing kit was FDA approved on 5/15/2020. If you live within a 1-mile range of the Wal-Mart on Craig Rd, you qualify for a drone-delivered test kit to your front or back door. This is while supplies last, if anyone has info that they stopped providing this, let me know. Some testing sites require an appointment; some may need to be scheduled by your primary care physician or another authorized provider. City Serve coordinates testing sites throughout the valley. Testing is only on Saturdays. Schedule a no-cost test here: https://cityservelv.org/ UMC, E7 Health and local laboratories are able to conduct FDA approved antibodies testing. Cost is normally $149+, but your insurance may reimburse you for the test. Check your coverage first. Vitalant/Universal Blood Services will do a free antibody test for any eligible donors. UMC is able to process 4,000 tests per day. It is encouraged for anyone to be tested. Symptoms are no longer required. Appointment is preferred, walk-up testing is available. UMC's testing sites are inside Stan Fulton Building and Cashman Field Center. They can do 1,200 tests per day, Tues-Sat 8am to 4pm. No symptoms, insurance, or citizenship required for testing; starting 1/11 requesting insurance coverage. Schedule an appointment online through UMC's website (www.umcsn.com). Sites are walk-in, appointment or walk-up. Both sites now use the self-nasal swab test kits. Families can be tested as one household together. UMC's COVID-19 test guidelines:
After positive test, no follow-up test is needed after 7-day isolation period asymptomatic; or 10-day with symptoms and no fever after 24 hours.
If employer requires a negative test in order for employee to return to work, then employer provides the test
Guidelines are to save test kits for those exhibiting symptoms. See all testing locations on the SNHD website. All CVS pharmacy drive-thru locations can also testing, no cost should be associated. Validate with your insurance. If no insurance, there should be no charge. Requires an appointment. FDA officially grants emergency-use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (12/11/2020). Distribution of vaccine began (12/14/2020). The first vaccine was tested 3/16/2020. More than 160 vaccine prototypes are being tested. Clinical trials of the vaccine were administered. Phase 1 & 2 of trial vaccines completed with positive antibody results. Phase 3 clinical trials started with 30k volunteers; test size of 3k vaccine trials in the UK have completed. Africa started their vaccine trials on 06/24/2020. Of the 100+ vaccines submitted, 22 have made the cut to go through testing and final FDA approval phases (5/15/2020 briefing). The front runner vaccine conducted human trails (Phase 3 aka final stage). AstraZeneca has prepared to produce 2 billion doses. Pfizer claims their vaccine is more than 95% effective. Moderna vaccine claims about 94.5% effective. Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is 70% to 90% effective based on dosage program (single dose versus duo dose). US government has been working with four vaccine manufacturers who have completed final phases of vaccine trials, all prepared for massive vaccine output. Vaccine distribution has been revised two "lanes" for vaccination: Healthcare front line/essential workers and general population, with emphasis on health conditions. NV CV19 vaccine playbook v3.pdf To sign up for vaccine notification when you're eligible: NV CV19 Vaccine Interest Form. More info on where to get the vaccine. Total doses administered: 394,172 (2/12)
1st dose stage: 308,611
2nd dose stage: 83,485
Total doses received to distribute: 533,800 Source Cashman Center and Las Vegas Convention Center are prepared to become vaccine mega centers, to distribute 40k to 45k shots per week (about 4k per day per site). Regional vaccine pop-up sites will be throughout the valley to provide access to those wanting the vaccine. Visit SNHD site for eligibility and to book your appointment online. Seniors who need assistance scheduling for their COVID-19 vaccine, call 1-800-401-0946, 8am to 8pm, 7 days a week. Las Vegas Convention Center will be the main 2nd dose distribution center starting Tues., Feb. 2nd. Open Tues-Sat, Central Hall, for both Moderna & Pfizer. If you didn't receive a notification to get your 2nd dose, call (702) 759-0850 to make your 2nd dose appointment. UMC's vaccine mega center will be at Encore, near the parking lot of their convention center area. They are prepared to distribute hundred per day according to the state guidelines. Appointment is required. North Las Vegas residents 70 and older can visit VaxNLV.com to fill out a simple intake form to enroll for vaccinations. Enrollment for these seniors will be open until Friday evening. Immediately after, the City will begin pre-enrollment for the general public. Seniors ages 70 or older who would like a vaccine may also call (702) 342-8417 for additional assistance, though wait times may be significantly longer than using the online, mobile-friendly platform. Remain mindful to give our medical community the ability to focus on those in need of their expertise to survive and combat the virus. For Nevada COVID-19 metrics, with historical spreadsheet and graph data, visit: The Nevada Independent Coronavirus Tracking or check out the link in our side bar.
Not another HITI / HITIF DD post... detailed analysis incl. valuation [re-post after it was deleted on r/pennystocks for some reason...]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
$FUBO DD - this thing is going to be a MONSTER. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Pretty sure most of you know $FUBO has been shorted like crazy since the news of their Victory acquisition. It shot up 33% with the news and has since lost most of those gains. I'm here to tell you why the shorts are wrong and why this is a MASSIVE opportunity for us. First, I'd like to address the issue of profitability. It was founded in 2015and being a young, growing company and isn't profitable yet. To put things into perspective, even Netflix which was founded in 1997 wasn't profitable until 2003. Fubo has more competition today than Netflix did back then, but it's still growing rapidly. Q3 Results: https://www.yahoo.com/now/fubotv-announces-q3-2020-results-210500756.html Revenues were $61.2 million, a 47% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis, or +71% excluding 2019 licensing revenue from the FaceBank AG business, sold in July 2020. This growth was driven by continued subscriber expansion, an increase in subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth of advertising sales: Subscription revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $53.4 million. Advertising revenue increased 153% year-over-year to $7.5 million. Paid subscribers at quarter end totaled 455,000, an increase of 58% year-over-year. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) per month was $67.70, up 14% year-over-year. Total content hours streamed by fuboTV users (paid and free trial) in the quarter increased 83% year-over-year to 133.3 million hours. Monthly active users (MAUs) watched 121 hours per month on average in the quarter, an increase of 20% year-over-year. Q4 Preliminary Results: https://ir.fubo.tv/news/news-details/2021/fuboTV-Announces-Preliminary-Fourth-Quarter-2020-Revenue-and-Subscriber-Growth/default.aspx Q4 total revenue is expected to be between $94-$98 million, a 77% to 84% increase year-over-year.* Prior guidance was $80-$85 million. Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 545,000, an increase of more than 72% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 500,000-510,000 subscribers. It smashed its previous guidance because sports and normality are returning. Also note that Fubo was still growing rapidly during the pandemic despite the lack of sports which is its primary focus. This is huge and it will continue to grow faster as sports start to return to normal. FUBO is estimated to announce earnings between Feb-March 2021 Most of us know that Fubo was opportunistically hit by short sellers (Kerrisdale/Rich Greendfield) as their lock up period expired. This made the stock tank considerably from it's high of $60. The short argument is that integrated sports betting is a pipe dream, and that its not profitable yet. As mentioned earlier, it took Netflix a while to scale up and become profitable. At the rate Fubo is growing, they are going to be profitable sooner than later. This isn't even an argument to me, as they scale up a few things will happen: - Customer acquisition costs will become a lower and lower percentage of revenue. - Since they license their content, they need scale to turn those licensing costs to profit (just like Netflix did) - More customers mean they can charge more for advertising. (More on this later) Fubo very clearly addressed the issue of integrated sports betting with the acquisition of Vigtory. The bear thesis is weakening significantly. Almost nonexistent. Now, on to the NBA: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2021/12/31/fubotv-solid-positioning-for-sports-betting/?sh=5fadb7c69cb5 "Over the past few years, Sky Media led investment rounds in FuboTV along with Fox for a 39% stake. This investment round was increased in late 2017/early 2018 with Sky Media holding Board positions. The former NBA commissioner was also part of the last $15 million round. Media has gone through some very big M&A shifts at the top-level with Comcast acquiring Sky and Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox. However, for FuboTV’s formative years, the company was influenced by arguably the top sports betting company in the world – Sky Media from the UK. The Comcast-owned Sky Media is still a backer for FuboTV along with Disney." David Stern, the late former NBA commissioner was involved in funding of Fubo. The current NBA commissioner Adam Silver worked extremely closely with his mentor. I've been a lifelong NBA fan and I had doubts in Adam Silver but I think he's done a fantastic job with the NBA. Why am I bringing up the NBA? https://www.casino.org/news/nba-considering-betting-broadcasts-could-help-draftkings/ (check the date of this and check the date of the Fubo Vigtory announcement) People are missing some key elements to the NBA announcement: this announcement was made literally the DAY after the Fubo Victory acquisition. People are missing the link between the NBA and Fubo, let alone the timing. Fact check me, they were announced a day apart and Fubo is the ONLY company with plans of an integrated sports betting broadcast platform. The NBA wants to get into this because they know viewers watch games for longer with sports betting and fantasy leagues (which is why I think they threw in DraftKings) Now, lets look into two key acquisitions: - Vigtory - Fubo acquired them and put their co-founder in charge of integrated sports betting along with their licenses and tech. Balto - This one is another thing bears are missing. They claim this acquisition was to get into sports betting, it wasn't this was for their fantasy sports platform which Fubo is also planning on integrating. Fubo is going to be an absolute monster going forward. It is trading at a discount thanks to shorts https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fubo 34m shares short, 62.5% of float shorted. This thing is PRIMED for an epic squeeze AND it's valued at a discount right now. Since the Vigtory acquisition, new price targets came out ranging from $47 to $60, this is minimum upside. Short term, I'm confident this thing will pop soon. It was hammered down after the Vigtory announcement by shorts, followed by a low volume selloff Friday. It's trading at imo, a massive discount right now. Long term, this thing is shaping up to be a unique competitor in streaming/sports betting. TL;DR - get in long, one way or another. Commons, LEAPS, anything... this thing is going to explode as we inch towards earnings (expected late January to mid-February). We got massive revenue growth, we have strong tailwinds with the return of sports, we have the NBA basically saying they're in as long as Fubo can execute. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
WARNING:It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of the below before trading. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in this thread.
Your Pre Market Brief for Tuesday December 15th 2020
Brought to you byMoonGangCapital You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub. Other Useful Resources:The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader. Published2:33AMEST / Updated as of4:00 AMEST -----------------------------------------------
Overnight News Heading into Tuesday December 15th 2020
(News Yet to be Traded 8:00 PM - 4:00 AM EST) It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of the below before trading. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in this thread.
TSLA Tesla To See $1.1B In 'Deferred Software Revenue' In 2021, Munster Estimates
TSLA Elon Musk's SpaceX Seeks To Double Valuation At $92B In New Funding Round: Report
TSEM Tower Semiconductor and OPIX Announce the Successful Development of a World Class iToF Technology Platform for 3D Imaging and Face Recognition Applications
AAPL Apple Supplier's iPhone Factory Suffers $7M In Damages During Violent Worker Protests
EAF GrafTech Announces Upsizing and Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock by Existing Stockholders
ATA.U Americas Technology Acquisition CORP. Announces Pricing of $100 M IPO
UBER Uber Fined $59M In California Over Refusal To Share Information On Sexual Assaults
BNR Burning Rock Announces an Exclusive in-Licensing of a Risk Stratification Test for Early Stage Lung-Cancer Patients from Oncocyte in China
BCDA ($4.48) BioCardia, Inc. Announces $8.5 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules [Revised]
UBER DASH LYFT GRUB Uber and DoorDash are hiking food delivery and rideshare prices for Californians to pay for new driver benefits
WBA CVS COST RAD KR COVID-19 vaccines expected by spring 2021 at drugstore/grocery store
GOOG GOOGL Google Kills Its Google Home Max Smart Speaker Line
J Jacobs Secures Place on Irish Water's Engineering Design Services Framework
End of Day and After Hours News Heading into Monday December 15th 2020
(News Traded 4:00 PM - 8:00 PM EST) It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of the below before trading. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in this thread.
WM Waste Management Announces Plan to Increase its Quarterly Dividend Rate and a Refreshed Share Repurchase Authorization
CAH Ohio Chooses Cardinal Health for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution
PTON Spinning creator files patent infringement lawsuit accusing Peloton of stealing its technology for their stationary bikes
EYRP ERYTECH Completes Enrollment in TRYbeCA-1 Phase 3 Trial in Second-Line Pancreatic Cancer
XOM North Dakota Sees Its One-Time Oil Gushers Stalled Until 2022
DIS The Walt Disney Company Schedules Annual Meeting of Shareholders for March 9, 2021
BSX NVRO Boston Scientific Announces Stipulation Of Dismissal Of Nevro Corporation's Patent Infringement Case In California
HON Honeywell Acquires Sine Group To Create A Mobile Platform For Honeywell Forge Offerings And To Enhance Connected Buildings Solutions
NOC Northrop Grumman secures two Air Force contracts worth $185.7M and ~$163.65M
WD Walker & Dunlop Structures $86 Million in Financing for Seniors Housing Properties
MMP Kherkher Garcia, LLP Files Suit on Behalf of Burn Victims in Magellan Oil Tank Explosion
PRIM Primoris Services acquires Future Infrastructure Holdings for $620M
PEO ADX Adams Natural Resources Fund Initiates Share Repurchases Pursuant To Enhanced Discount Management And Liquidity Program
TBI PeopleReady’s JobStack App Recognized for Tech Excellence in Staffing During Pandemic
XOM Engine No. 1 Comments on ExxonMobil’s New Emissions Targets
NHS Neuberger Berman High Yield Strategies Fund Announces Final Results of Its Tender Offer and Reduction in Leverage
SAIC NOC US Department of Defense awards new contracts to NOC / SAIC
GDYN Grid Dynamics Acquires Netherlands-based Daxx, Expands Footprint in Western Europe
MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. Announces Commencement of $500,000,000 Convertible Senior Notes Offering
DCI Donaldson Company Makes Strategic Investment With Key Appointment to Accelerate Growth in Life Sciences
VGC ($0.98) Vista Gold Drilling Confirms Adjacent Mineralized Zone at the Mt Todd Gold Project
ARMS ($3.26) On July 24, 2020, Amyris and the members of our board of directors were named as defendants in a putative stockholder class action filed in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delawa..
PQG PQG +9.4%, materials segment acquired by The Jordan Company affiliate
HWKN Hawkins Named One of America’s Most Responsible Companies by Newsweek
NXPI NXP Semiconductors shares fall after Goldman downgrade on lack of upside
TOL: Poor guidance and headwinds in the real estate market (Reliable company though)
LEN: Dipping as a result of TOLL's guidance. Posturing for earnings on the 16th
SPWH: Dropping as analysts expect a decrease in revenue earned next year.
ITB: Real estate expected to cool off in the winter before popping again in the Spring
LMT: Typical post dividend dip
CRM: Dipping because investors assess they paid too much for the Slack purchase
KMX: Been trading sideways for nearly 6 months. Earnings on 12/22
BGFV: Post earnings/dividend dip
VIVO: Volatile growth stock
WM: Dumping after dividend. News Above: Resuming share repurchase program and upping dividend
WERN Missed in Revenue last ER. Looks oversold.
Offering News:
MIRM Mirum Pharmaceuticals Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock
CTAQ Carney Technology Acquisition Corp. II Announces Closing of $402,500,000 Initial Public Offering
TGTX TG Therapeutics Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock
MUDS Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II Announces Closing of Underwriter’s Option to Purchase Additional Units in Connection with its Initial Public Offering
TPVG TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Extension and Expansion of Its Revolving Credit Facility
AROC Archrock Announces Upsizing and Pricing of $300 Million of Senior Notes
CSTL Castle Biosciences Announces Commencement of Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
LEAF Leaf Group Announces Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock
OCUL Ocular Therapeutix to raise $75M in stock offering
ENLC EnLink Midstream Announces Pricing of $500 Million of Senior Notes Due 2028
PXLW Pixelworks Announces Closing of $12.0 Million Public Offering of Common Stock
HYFM Hydrofarm Holdings Group Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares
Commodities:
Oil Edges Toward $47 Ahead of U.S. Coronavirus Vaccine Rollout
----------------------------------------------- Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub Other Useful Resources:Stock Market Tools, Resources, Advice, & Tutorials WARNING: It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of the above before trading. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in this thread.
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This Is Better Than A Clay Bar And Only Costs $2 - YouTube
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