NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said.
https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this:
https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.”
https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the
Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
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2013 marked a big year in many aspects for the video game industry, it was a good year for new IPs and (some) sequels if you were a AAA developer. Sony fans may remember being introduced to The Last of Us for the first time as you embarked on a journey as Joel Miller through a post-apocalyptic United States, or if your name was Artyom continued a post-apocalypse Soviet Russian adventure in Metro: Last Light. Reboots were also in affair; Tomb Raider and Devil May Cry made their comebacks with flair and breathed new life into some of gaming's historic franchises. It was also a year that marked the end of certain beloved trilogies with titles such as Bioshock: Infinite and Crysis 3. These were times of big feels, new beginnings, and more importantly: new ideas to create the proverbial ten year cash cows.
You see while all this time you were reminiscing about a heartbroken Joel crying to the tune of Gustavo Santaolalla’s emotional guitar riffs in the background, 2013 was also a year that changed gaming in subtle ways you may not have realized. GTA V made its meteoric rise to the top of the unquenchable stream of revenue in digital media history, meanwhile Valve was setting the stage when it released Dota 2 that was the first ever video game to introduce the concept of a Battle Pass: a name which will live in infamy.
There is a lot to unpack here so we’ll try our best to go in a coherent order. GTA V answered a key question that has been lingering for a long time in the AAA video game business model: can you make games as a service?
Picture yourself tearing down the freeway in the supercar of your dreams, the sun is shining and you are blasting your favourite tunes, to your right is the horizon of a crystal blue pacific ocean, you receive a call from one of your “business partners” about a proposition to earn some tax-free income so you can pay for a superyacht at some point in your career, why? Because crime pays and the fun never ends. Rockstar had perfected the model of what unfettered freedom looks like in a virtual world, and in a genius move, released GTA Online in just two weeks after initial release. Needless to say it was a success, in fact it was more than just that, it became the envy of video game business executives.
The question is often raised and answered, and then forgotten about, and then asked again about why AAA companies don't make one-and-done IPs anymore. At least, very few of them seem to do it.
If $595 million in 2019 from GTA Online alone doesn’t answer the question for you, I don’t know what else will. You see Rockstar didn’t intend for its online component to be as successful as it is. The addictive gameplay loop and highly-detailed compelling world that seduced a large portion of its players (and by extension: the market) was just the elevator pitch. Like any great formula, it needs constant improvement as our old Bethesda buddy Todd Howard always likes to parrot “Great games are played, not made” by that logic then how do you keep a game great then? You keep playing it? How do you keep playing a game? (Well according to Todd its by letting your community of modders finish the game for you)
What Rockstar did was added weekly updates, paid close attention to the needs of its community, had a look at the graphs and noticed only 27% of its players had actually completed the single player campaign (keep in mind this statistic is over 7 years old and may have changed significantly). For the first time GTA broke its tradition by not making expansions for the single player, which is what it was always known for. The Beach Bum update was released for free the following month for GTA Online players and the rest is history. Just kidding GTA Online is releasing a new free game update this December which will expand the playable game world, oh and it's got military submarines and a new plot “a la James Bond”. Seeing the… evolution of what was a game about stealing cars has been an interesting journey so far.
According to gamstat.com and Steam charts, a conservative number of 1.4 million players across PC, PS4, XB1 log-in daily to play GTA Online. The game - even 7 years later - stays consistently in the top 10 of most played games across both consoles.
So this was the Rockstar Games model: forget about single-player because statistically, nobody really cares, let's just focus on our multiplayer because its getting more attention, free updates for everyone to keep them busy, we’ll gradually inflate the fuck out of everything seven years down the line because there’s just gonna be so much content that you’ll need 800 of your real dollars at some point in a recent update if you want to buy all the content, what was that you want to grind for it? Jokes on you, you'll be there forever. This game will be your second job after you come home from your first job, you’ll be too lazy to grind for hours to get a car so why not just buy a shark card? You’re gonna get paid at the end of the month anyways, it's not a big deal.
Well lo and behold, it just works. (Shut up Todd, you’re partly to blame here!)
It is a sound business model, and one that even overshadows Red Dead Redemption 2 which has witnessed a significant dwindling in its online engagement.
In this second part we’ll look at Valves' introduction of the Battle Pass or “Compendium” system in Dota 2 and how 4 years later, it would be adapted and popularized by Epic Games’ Fortnite. Before we dive in, let’s take a little trip to 2004.
You’re on the computer in the living room of your parents house and you’re playing South Korean based Wizet studio’s MapleStory. You don’t have a console and you’re not allowed to play violent video games because your mom is too strict and also because she’s listening to mainstream media rant on how Halo 2 is making children too violent. So you’re stuck with MapleStory, it’s nothing to speak of graphically because it's a 2D side scrolling RPG, but hey it’s free to play and it's Massively Multiplayer Online so at least it has other real people playing it. While you’re playing it, you’re having fun because you find out you can actually do a variety of things even though it's just an innocent 2D looking game. You can chat, trade things with real players, perhaps even band together in a party and go on quests in MapleWorld. One thing is making you envious though: you can’t stop going back to the Cash shop because of all the dope looking outfits you think would look good on your character, and also because other folks are flexing them in your party. In come the “Gachapon tickets” (now for historical accuracy we’ll pretend you’re an expat living in Japan because at the time it was just a japanese thing), a Gachapon is basically a machine that sells capsules containing little toys in them, what capsule you got after inserting your coin was completely random - remember the word Gachapon as we’ll get to it later - MapleStory in Japan allowed for users to pay just 100 measly yen ($1.00) for a Gachapon ticket so you could buy whatever you wanted at the Cash shop, you convince your mom because it’s cheap and because you somehow convinced her that it was not a scam?
Hooray you can finally impress your party with the new gear you just got! You can continue playing the game to your heart's content.
Little did you know that MapleStory would be the inspiration for a special surprise in your gaming experience which we’ll get to in a moment.
Across Asia in the late noughties, it was the free to play titles that generated a considerable amount of income because of their popularity with internet cafe goers and people who weren’t wealthy enough to afford expensive tech. The games were free, accessible because of the growing mobile market in exchange it offered cheap but optional microtransactions to recoup for its development costs. ZT Online (2007) was a chinese developed game that took full advantage of the free to play model, offering optional microtransactions for its committed players and raked in a reported $15 million per month. The first ever mobile game to hit the $1 billion milestone was Puzzle & Dragons released in 2011. In North America and Europe during the social-network heyday saw Zynga develop free to play mobile games such as FarmVille, Zynga Poker, Words with Friends, etc.
Now it’s been a good few years since you were playing shitty 2D side scrolling games, you want to be a part of the big leagues and play some shooters! The year is 2010 and you’re having the time of your life whooping ass in Team Fortress 2, a pioneer of the “hero shooter” genre. It’s September and you are eating a sandvich (nom) while watching your favorite YouTube gaming channel talk about crates containing random loot that can be accessed by purchasing keys, it’s exciting! You’re old enough and mature by your moms standards to be playing TF2 so you use your pocket money allowance to buy these keys so you can later brag to your school friends or online forums. You also learn that Valve is transitioning the game to free-to-play so that it can attract more users. (Are you noticing the pattern here?)
Valve has always been ahead of the curve when it comes to monetization in video games and it’s remarkable how they achieve this, because if you were following the news at the time you’ll remember that when Valve made Team Fortress 2 free-to-play, it dominated the Steam charts f2p list for a reasonable time. 3 years after it became free-to-play, TF2 was reported making $139 million per year alongside Counter Strike which is also a beefy 9-figure earner for the company. This is notwithstanding the fact that Valve has the monopoly on the PC gaming market with Steam which takes a 30% cut of every video-game sale. You really cannot stop the Gaben.
During the time that Valve were transitioning to the free-to-play model they hired Greek-Australian economist and former Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis to research virtual economies. What occurred a few years later was a growing trend of MMOs and MOBAs transitioning to a free-to-play model, starting in 2011 with popular games such as Star Trek Online and Lord Of The Rings Online, adding microtransactions as a means to stay sustainable.
The TF2 crates and keys were another way of interpreting the Gachapon philosophy, get a key to open your “capsule” but leave it to RNG to decide the fate of your purchase.
Valve were the first of the AAA gaming industry to popularize this practice but also to have perfected the art of recurrent user spending, of course what we also saw was a decline in release of new games but we’ll get to that in a bit. Now other video game publishers took notice of Lord Gaben’s business savvy and decided to find their own ways to create additional revenue streams.
Electronic Arts, the founders of “surprise mechanics” decided to monetize FIFA Ultimate Team in 2010 by offering players the opportunity to purchase virtual trading cards as a means to generate extra revenue on a reliable IP with a loyal fanbase. This worked predictably in EA’s favour as of recent 2020 financial reports they have generated $1.49 billion in revenue from FUT alone.
EA being EA wanted to further inflate their sense of pride and accomplishment by using the Gachapon philosophy (a philosophy which worked with free-to-play titles for reasonable causes) by creating their first loot-boxes, now because they’re EA, didn’t bother to transition their games to the free-to-play model, that idea probably got laughed at during a board meeting. These motherfuckers literally decided to have their cake and eat it for all the public to see.
2 years later in 2012 at the release of Mass Effect 3, EA implemented loot boxes into the multiplayer component of the game, in fact they did so with all of their multiplayer IPs: Battlefront, Battlefield. The reason why loot-boxes is a perverted version of the Gachapon ticket (and sorry if I use this word a lot) is because it contains cut content that allow for in game advantages so the gamers ™ have no other option but to gamble their money for something that is not even guaranteed they’ll have because grinding for it will take some ridiculous hundreds of hours of your time.
EA popularized the loot-box which I like to keep separate from Gachapon because the two are fundamentally different. Loot-boxes are gameplay/XP modifiers you have to pay for on top of the full retail price of the game you already bought. Gachapon tickets is a means to support a developer that made a base game free-to-play.
What happened following the increase in quarterly earnings for Electronic Arts after their loot-box boom were a bunch of other companies copying the exact same thing ad nauseam but putting their own “creative” spin on it: Counter Strike: GO did it with weapon cases, Battlepacks for Battlefield 4, COD: AW with Supply Drops.
Overwatch went as far as including loot-boxes to be part of its meta in 2016, other core AAA games following suit, COD, Halo 5, LoL, you name it it probably has it. Fast forward to 2017 and EA are in legal battles with governments about loot boxes and the industry is now getting cold feet. Fortnite becomes the latest trailblazing success. Which is where Valve were once again: ahead of the curve.
You remember at the beginning of this case study where Valve were the first to come up with the concept of a Battle Pass? So in 2013, Dota 2 devised what they called “The Compendium” a business model based on the Season pass or Season ticket used in sports for NFL or Baseball. The models are basically identical: you pay a one time fee for access to an event that typically lasts 3 months. This model works far better than the loot box because it incentivizes players to grind for content they know are guaranteed to get. The player only pays a one-time fee (usually in the $10 price point) giving them a sense of getting their money's worth, I fall for this myself because it is marketed incredibly effectively.
Furthermore the seasonal model “drip-feeds” content, so these may be gameplay modifiers, XP enhancements, unique limited edition content (weapons, shaders, armours) so the more you progress, the greater the benefits.
Now Dota 2 uses the proceeds of Battle Pass sales towards the seasonal tournaments prize pool. For other companies like Bungie it is most likely towards development of new seasonal content or Eververse items.
So during the whole loot-box orgy that lasted a good 5-6 years. Valve were profiting from the seasonal model, Epic Games took note and decided it would use the same thing for their new shooter. In Summer of 2017, Fortnite broke records as one of the highest-grossing free-to-play battle royale titles of the decade, having been downloaded a recorded 350 million times and generating $1.8 billion in revenue in its first year. It was clear at that point the free-to-play model with a season pass and microtransactions store guaranteed a stable platform. 3 years later, Fortnite is projected to make $5 billion at the end of this fiscal year, and has registered 3.2 billion hours of playtime. Now this is important because it took GTA V seven years to break through $6 billion and GTA V (for now) still remains the highest-grossing video game of all time.
We can see Call of Duty Warzone made its Battle Royale mode free-to-play as a direct response to the trend. Bungie followed suit after their recent move to make Destiny 2 a free-to-play model with a seasonal pass built-in to last until 2022.
It’s only a matter of time whether we see more companies and AAA titles decide to do the same for it to determine the “games a service model” will be the dominant market trend. We can safely assess Microsoft is emulating this with its Game Pass Ultimate program which acts as a “Netflix for video games” having recently merged with EA Access expanding its library of “free-to-play” games at the cost of a monthly installment.
If you have made it this far, you are a mad lad. I thought I’d take some time to illuminate the direction in which the video game industry seems to be heading by highlighting the patterns. This is also in an attempt to answer the question of: why are video games the way they are in 2020? It wasn’t easy to write but I hope it was easy for you to read. Once again thank you for taking the time of your day, now what are you waiting for? Go play some video games!
submitted by Gambling and sport betting are both very popular in Japan, though only certain forms are lawful. Specifically, the forms authorized are lottery, scratch cards, pari-mutuel betting on horse racing, keirin (bicycle racing), powerboat racing (kyōtei), and autorace (motorcycles), and soccer toto wagers on J-League. Is it legal to gamble online in Japan? As mentioned above, casino online gambling, and actually gambling, in general, is not legal in Japan. Under the Criminal Code, chapter 23, the generalised practice of gambling, in a land-based casino and via online casino gambling sites is banned, and not supported by any regulatory boards in Japan. “General and Online Gambling Laws in Japan” In the remainder of this article I’ll discuss the many forms of fully legal gambling Japan. If you are also interested in watching a video covering gambling, I’ve included one in English below. Therefore, online casino activities, whose operators and players are located within Japan but outside the licensed casino facilities, are not permitted. (ii) It is not clear whether Japanese residents are permitted to use online casino services whose operators are located and licensed outside Japan, but it may be prosecuted as illegal gambling if the user’s betting is carried out within Japan. Online gambling in Japan is not unlike many other areas where, while technically not legally approved. It’s also difficult for the government to get involved in its monitoring. So, many online casinos and sportsbooks do offer betting services to Japanese punters. Stand-alone gambling venues remain illegal in Japan at the moment of writing. As for online gambling, it, too, is illegal under Japanese law, with very few exceptions. Online betting on certain races and sporting competitions is legal as long as these services are operated by the prefectures’ authorities or the Japanese government. Up to date, there are no legal casinos existing in Japan. The country has been considering to change its policy, as the idea of legalizing casinos has been put on the agenda for years. Online Gambling. Online wagering for lottery, soccer toto and public sport is allowed by the Japanese Government. Is online gambling legal in Japan? The answer isn’t as simple as “yes” or “no.” While laws that ban physical casinos in Japan are very explicit, those relating to gambling of the virtual sort are surprisingly ambiguous. Online gambling is illegal in Singapore. However, unlike Japan and China, they also forbid the use of offshore gambling sites meaning if you are a citizen of the country, there is no legal way for you to access any betting website. Unlike other forms of gambling, online lotto sites in Japan are legal, though private operators cannot offer these games. Nonetheless, players often use offshore platforms that offer bigger jackpot prizes. Online Bingo in Japan. Bingo is not very popular in Japan and there are no places to play the game.
