Background

The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion... you know, lets pause and put that in perspective. Video games - the entire idea of electronic games you play, whether on your phone, computer, or dedicated console - have a yearly revenue of $44 billion. That means the NFL makes about 40% of what video games - the entire fucking industry - does worldwide.
It is also deliciously petty. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football. That means they're essentially owned by super rich fans who are not used to anyone telling them no. These owner superfans can fire people, demand trades, etc. And do. Imagine if you picked your industry, and had it run by a bunch of outsiders who knew very little about it, but had vast amounts of money and bad tempers. Oh and unlike European football with relegations, there's nothing to remove a team or force them to be competitive, meaning people making bad decisions can just keep making the bad decisions.
The result is you could probably make a subreddit just called "Gridiron football drama" and it'd be populated as fuck. Therefore I won't go into the minor things - the players who robbed a bunch of people but then bribed their way out of charges, the dogfighting, the guy who shot himself in the leg, that's just standard petty shit. Coaches fired after good seasons because the owner doesn't like them, total idiots left on for years, good ol' boys who never seem to quite depart the NFL despite no one having an idea what they're good at, the ongoing disaster of analytics (the idea of applying mathematics to a sport run by overgrown infants), no, no, that's for another time.
A good time. I'll probably do one or two more of these.

COVID and the League

The NFL makes $16 billion. COVID kills people. $16 billion vs. dead people. Hmmm. Dead people. $16 billion.
So we're having a football season this year. It's almost guaranteed to kill at least some people who are either involved or involved in outbreaks caused by it, but hey, life goes on. Or doesn't.
The NFL pays lip service to preventing the spread, which is the start of our delicious drama.

COVID Protocols - the answer

The NFL has instituted COVID protocols. These are insane. For instance, people on the sidelines have to wear a mask. Athletes don't, because you can't breath through a mask while pushing your body to its limits. They explored face shields, but nah.
So you have two guys who are literally laying next to each other on the ground panting for breath after tackling (this sport isn't at all gay). They are breathing heavily, inches from each other. But say those exact same players who have been breathing in each other's faces for hours celebrate winning in the locker room? That sounds like half a million in fines. Pay up!
There's no real describing how insane this is. The raiders coach doesn't like his mask so he's declared war on the NFL. The Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Raiders, and more have been fined.
The masks have also looked sillier and sillier. This man is considered a football genius. No, he hasn't taken one too many shots to the head or something, he's just incapable of wearing a mask normally. God knows why. Coaches regularly pull them down to talk to people, thus defeating the entire point, etc. See? He wears a mask when he doesn't need to be close to people or talk to them he only pulls it down for short periods of time when he's close and talking. I don't see the problem here.
Half the organizations fined are appealing, and accusations of bias have flown back and forth. Angriest are the Saints, who are PISSED about being fined half a million dollars for having a celebration in their own locker room after a win after they passed a COVID test right before the game.
Does any of this make sense? Nope!
There's some more sensible protocols too. For instance new players have to test negative, then sit out in isolation for six days while the teams wait for them to make sure they don't have COVID, test negative again, then they can join the team. Of course isolation isn't that isolating, but that's a whole other matter. So overall, mixed bag for protocols.

Fake fan noise

Okay, so most games can't be attended by fans (not Dallas, Dallas said fuck it get sick and die) but crowd noise is a big part of football. Crowds cheer their team. So they pipe in fake crowd noise.
This is a little creepy but not too bad. So where's the drama? Well, lets turn to Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. Their QB, Carson Wentz, has been having a bit of a down year. So to show him love, they piped in fake boos. At a home game. This is kinda how Philly fans roll, but needless to say this move drew some controversy.

Baltimore Ravens COVID

The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to play a game on Thanksgiving, but their QB might have COVID. Fortunately the NFL was understanding. A QB is the most important position on the field, and without Lamar Jackson, there's no way the Ravens could be expected to play. So the game has been delayed as they work the situation out. So far, so good.

Denver Broncos

Okay, so that brings us to the Denver Broncos. See, anyone who has COVID has to be quarantined, as does anyone who might have it. Even if they test negative for a long while.
So the Denver Broncos backup QB has COVID. And they had a long meeting with their QB and their other backup QB. And their other backup. In a room with no masks. They're all put on COVID watch list, meaning they can't play.
So the Denver broncos have four quarterbacks, and none can play. The Ravens have just had a game delayed. The Broncos get told... game on.
Okay, they look around for QBs they can get on short notice. But remember in the protocol section where they have to have new players wait six days? Oh. They don't have six days.
In desperation they ask the NFL if they can at least play their assistant coach. He can throw footballs, and knows the playbook. Nope! Not signed as a player, has to sit for six days. "But he's been practicing with the team!" the Broncos tell the NFL. The NFL decides to beat the dead horse some more, and denies them.
Thus the Denver Broncos try to figure out who on their team can throw a football. The answer was their practice squad wide receiver Kendell Hinton. Here's him throwing passes in training camp.
Uh yeah, he catches passes. Not throws them. And has never played a game. And last threw a pass in a game in 2016, in college. And works as a salesman part time.
Is this a total middle finger to the NFL from the Broncos, or just the only person they had? I don't know, but it's ugly.

The game.

So the Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes. These are the highlights. 1 for 9, 13 yards, 2 interceptions. The Broncos got drubbed by the Saints, obviously, although NO was pretty gentle with Hinton overall. There's a lot of "welcome to the NFL" defense strategies you can use against a new QB like blitz zero - basically an all-out blitz - that will generally crush them until they get used to it. NO kindly used none of that, playing pretty standard.
Of course Hinton couldn't beat pretty standard, because Hinton is a receiver who isn't good enough to make the main squad. It's not all bad for him. The Denver Broncos gave him a shoutout on their Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Broncos/status/1333195716831838208
They reportedly gave him an ovation in the locker room, and gave him a the game ball. Multiple players have said they respect him, and they should. They weren't throwing the ball, and they probably would have looked just as bad. Gridiron football positions are not interchangeable, and QB is the hardest to step in to.
Fortunately Hinton seemed happy postgame interview, but damn.

Fallout

Broncos fans are furious the Ravens sat while their team was forced to play. Even ESPN has called this game "unprecedented in the modern era of football." There's a bunch of wagon circling back and forth.
Mike Klis a team reporter who covers them has reported that the Broncos other QBs tested negative before and after the game, meaning they could have played. Had they delayed the game they CERTAINLY could have played. So why did the NFL punish the Broncos and not the Ravens? Why show one team favoritism and guarantee the other a loss?
A big controversy is the NFL seems to be pushing "name brand" QBs. Lamar Jackson, QB of the Ravens, is one of those name QBs, and the NFL is pushing him hard as one of the faces of their game. Drew Lock, the Broncos QB, is not.
So this is adding fuel to that fire. Fans are convinced that people like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson are getting more protection from the NFL - refs are calling fouls if anyone touches them, they're rearranging schedules to highlight them, etc. These people most certainly increase NFL revenue, and the NFL pushes them hard.
On the other side, many outfits are talking how the Broncos broke the rules, and how the punishment was not unwarranted. Are these connected to the NFL? Maybe. Sports media is a bit incestuous. They can't just go report on some other organization if the NFL bans them or does mean things to them.
So this has drawn battle lines, and lead to a grand controversy that's still developing.
Was this interesting? Anyone interested in a writeup of the collapse of the Chicago Bears in 2020, the Antonio Brown saga (in three part harmony), or the 60 year history of mismanagement and ineptitude that is the Detroit Lions? Do you like reading about Gridiron football?

Great week last week. Ravens crushed Jacksonville while The Jets upset a very popular Rams pick. We have 2 weeks standing between us and a perfect season now. Unfortunately this week is going to be a bit tighter than we would like.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team to pick
Houston Texans. Though the Chicago Bears are also very reasonable. The current spreads for each game is -8 and -7.5. I would definitely keep an eye on these lines and just take whichever one is larger on Sunday.
Though the Texans lost last week they were tied against a very good Colts team late in the game. On the flip side, Cincinnati did just upset Pittsburgh, though they also got blown out by the Cowboys just a week earlier.
I definitely do not feel super comfortable this week, but it's what we have left to work with.
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	HOU	77%	68.6%	16.66
2	CHI	75%	66.8%	16.64
3	ARI	68%	60.5%	16.57
4	WSH	58%	51.6%	16.47

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Sunday Update
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Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	CHI	77%	68.6%	16.66
2	HOU	75%	66.8%	16.64
3	PHI	60%	53.4%	16.49
4	WSH	53%	47.2%	16.42

Looks like the lines on CHI/HOU have flipped so CHI is now the mathematically better choice.
The two are still so close that if you want to go with HOU instead for personal reasons I wouldn't hesitate.
I think the news yesterday of James Robinson being out today cemented my decision to go with CHI.
In other news the CLE line dropped like a rock this morning from over 10 to under 7. If you still have them available I would probably switch at this point to CHI or HOU.
​
Season So Far
15 - 0. Just 2 games left. Right now we have IND saved for next week who should be the biggest favorite on the week. Just have to sweat this one out first.
For those of you who have already won, congrats!. For those of you still battling, good luck!
​
Rest of Season Outlook
​

Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	100%
7	LAC	JAX	100%
8	KC	NYJ	100%
9	NE	NYJ	100%
10	GB	JAX	100%
11	PIT	@JAX	100%
12	NYG	@CIN	100%
13	MIN	JAX	100%
14	SEA	NYJ	100%
15	BAL	JAX	100%
16	HOU	CIN	77%
17	IND	JAX	89%

​
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 68.6% (+7.5pp)
E(Wins) = 16.66 (+0.11)
​
Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
Mediafire
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.

Well that was easy. Not only was a 16 point line not enough for the Seahawks, it wasn't even half of the final difference. Why can't all picks work out that nicely? Unfortunately as has become typical this season we didn't get any of the other upsets we needed to reduce the field. This week should see a larger spread of picks so hopefully we can win ours and see some other upsets around the leage.
​
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team to pick
Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has the easiest possible schedule remaining with games against Jacksonville, NYG, and \@Cincinnati. Saving them could certainly make sense, but the math says you are slightly better off taking them this week.
Going with TEN this week gives win probabilities of 83%, 82%, 88% for the last three weeks, while BAL gives you 88%, 79%, 88%. Going with TEN will even out the odds a little bit more, having you lower this week, but better odds next week if HOU scares you after their pathetic outing last week.
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	BAL	88%	61.1%	16.55
2	TEN	83%	59.8%	16.53
3	ARI	73%	52.6%	16.43
4	IND	74%	51.8%	16.42

Sunday Update
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	BAL	88%	60.9%	16.55
2	TEN	81%	58.4%	16.51
3	ARI	73%	52.6%	16.43
4	IND	74%	51.8%	16.42

No real change from Wednesday. TEN's spread dropped slightly for this week. I'm going BAL, but I would understand if people preferred to go TEN to improve their chances next week.
​
​
Season so far
14-0. Well this is definitely the farthest I've ever made it undefeated. We have 3 more games to get through. All of which should be favored by at least a touchdown. Next weeks matchup of HOU vs CIN is the largest hurdle left. Hopefully everyone here has followed my picks and are in the same great position right now.
​
Rest of Season Outlook
We shouldn't expect the future teams picked to change at all at this point, the percentages will just bounce around a little bit from here on out.
​

Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	100%
7	LAC	JAX	100%
8	KC	NYJ	100%
9	NE	NYJ	100%
10	GB	JAX	100%
11	PIT	@JAX	100%
12	NYG	@CIN	100%
13	MIN	JAX	100%
14	SEA	NYJ	100%
15	BAL	JAX	88%
16	HOU	CIN	79%
17	IND	JAX	88%

​
Nerdy math stuff
P(Win Out) = 61.1% (+5.7pp) -- We will win out about 3 in every 5 times from here.
E(Wins) = 16.55 (+0.10)
These values didn't increase very much this week since last weeks matchup was such a sure thing.
Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
Mediafire
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.

I swear every team I pick for survivor manages to never cover the spread. Makes the games exciting, but I'd rather just win them easily and move on. GB really tried to keep Jacksonville in the game by giving up a punt return TD, and committing several uncharacteristic turnovers. We still got the win though so we still get to play.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team I should pick
Pittsburgh Steelers. There are three teams this week that are at least a TD favorite. LAC we've used, MIN we need to save for next week, and PIT. Time to roll out the Steelers vs the very bad Jaguars again. The game is on the road, but I don't think that's playing as large a factor this year as it typically does.
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	PIT	82%	26.7%	15.82
2	MIN	75%	22.9%	15.71
3	SEA	60%	20.7%	15.64
4	BAL	73%	20.4%	15.60

​
I show the top 4 teams each week, but PIT is really the only one I would consider. There are large drop offs and big implications down the season if you take someone else.
​
Sunday Update
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	PIT	83%	27.9%	15.85
2	MIN	75%	23.6%	15.73
3	BAL	71%	20.5%	15.61
4	WSH	55%	20.4%	15.66

Nothing really changes. PIT improved slighly to a 10.5 point favorite. That's as good as it's going to get this week.
​
Season so far
10-0. I'm trying to temper expectations until we get through next week. If that happens then we can start getting excited.
​
Rest of season outlook
Teams in italics are changes from last week. This is simply to give some insight into why team X or Y aren't being picked this week. It's usually because they are better off being used later in the season, or it's because I've already used them.
​

Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	100%
7	LAC	JAX	100%
8	KC	NYJ	100%
9	NE	NYJ	100%
10	GB	JAX	100%
11	PIT	@JAX	82%
12	MIN	CAR	72%
13	LV	@NYJ	78%
14	SEA	NYJ	87%
15	BAL	JAX	93%
16	CHI	@JAX	79%
17	IND	JAX	91%

Just some small shuffling this week by adding LV vs NYJ in week 13 and bumping SEA down to week 14.
On the plus side MIN's win probability is climbing as they continue to play well and beat good teams. Week 12 was at one point below 60% win probability and is now up over 70%.
​
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 26.7% (+0.1pp). Looks like most of our P(Win) values dropped a little bit from last week, so our overall win out chances are flat. Still better than a 1 in 4 chance from here though.
E(Wins) = 15.82 (+0.01)
Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
Mediafire
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.

Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement Balance: $35,000 in a SEP IRA through my employer. They match 2% if I contribute at least 4%. I currently contribute 8%.
$21,000 in my husband’s Roth IRA. He’s a PhD student and the university doesn’t let him contribute to a retirement account pre-tax, so we’ve been maxing a Roth for him each of the last few years. We haven’t yet put in the full amount for this year but have it set aside in our savings.
Savings account balance: About $42,000 spread across a couple of accounts.
Checking account balance: Around $4000.
Investments: About $15,000 in CDs which will be part of a down payment at some point.
About $20,000 in a mutual fund; my parents threw I think $1000 into this when I was very young and have just let it sit and grow since then. This will also probably go towards a down payment.
HSA: $1200. I was able to contribute to an HSA when I was on health insurance through my employer; I’m now on my husband’s health insurance because he has a great and inexpensive plan through the university, but I can’t contribute to this account anymore.
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): None, we pay off our credit cards in full each month.
Student loan debt (for what degree): None for me; I received a merit-based scholarship that covered one year of undergrad and my parents graciously covered the rest along with living expenses. My husband’s parents paid for his undergrad degree. Tuition is waived for his PhD program, so no debt from that.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I’ve worked at the same company since I graduated college (over 6 years now). I started in an entry-level role in 2014 with a $29,000 salary. After about a year, I got promoted to the role I’m in now and also received a raise to $36,000. In 2018, I asked for a raise and got bumped up to $43,000. I’ve also received a small cost of living raise every year, which brings me to where I am now at about $45,000. (All of these numbers are salary only, not including bonuses; I did receive significant bonuses every year, and the amounts have increased year-over-year--I just don’t remember how much I received each year.)
Main Job:
Me: Last year I made $62,000 pre-tax. As mentioned, my salary is about $45,000, and I expect to get in the neighborhood of $17k in bonuses this year, possibly more. I take home $2725/month after taxes and 8% retirement contribution.
Husband: He makes $29,000 pre-tax as a PhD student. He takes home $2081 per month after taxes and both of our health insurance (I don’t remember what the monthly premium is).
Side Gig:
I’ve picked up a side job this year helping students prepare their personal statements/essays for their college applications, and I expect to make between $4000-$5000 from that total for the year. The amount I make per month varies, and I have to estimate my own taxes, so I set aside money for that from each weekly paycheck.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent: $1115 (includes $25/month fee for having a cat). We have a 2 bed/1 bath apartment in the suburbs of a MCOL city, and heat and water are included in our rent.
Renter’s insurance: $21.25
Investment contribution: $500/month towards my husband’s Roth IRA
Donations: $478/month in recurring donations. About half of that goes to our church and the rest is split among a variety of other charities/organizations. We also usually set aside another $50-$75/month for anything extra that comes up that we want to give to; lately this has included things like Fair Fight and the runoffs in Georgia, our local tenant resource center, and our local food pantry.
Electric: Anywhere from $40-$100 depending on the time of year; right now it’s about $50.
Wifi: $70
Cellphones: $175 (includes service, leases for both our phones, and insurance for both phones)
Subscriptions: Spotify Premium Duo for $13.70, Disney Plus for $7, we use my husband’s parents’ Netflix, Hulu is free with our phone plan, and we’re on my parents’ Amazon Prime account.
Pet expenses: We don’t budget a set amount monthly specifically for our cat, but her prescription food costs about $35 every six weeks, and we also always keep a few hundred dollars earmarked for occasional vet expenses.
Car insurance: $78.16/month (total for 2 cars)
Car registration: $226/year so we budget $19/month (total for 2 cars)
School fees: This varies and is paid on a semester basis, but we budget about $100/month for fees for my husband’s grad program. He doesn’t have to pay tuition but he does have to pay these fees (I’ll take it).
Costco membership: $60/year so essentially $5/month
Gas: $75, but this is hard to estimate
Groceries: We’re budgeting about $350 right now--a little more than in the before times but our entertainment budget is a little less to compensate.
Entertainment: $200 (see above)--in normal times this would include going out to eat, going to concerts or sporting events, etc. Now it’s pretty much just takeout.
Allowance/personal spending money: $100 each for my husband and me, which rolls over to the next month if we don’t use all of it.
This is getting long but we also budget on a monthly basis for personal care, household items, and alcohol, and for many other things on a medium-to-long-term basis in sinking funds. We use a zero-based budget, so every dollar we bring in gets allocated somewhere.
Section 4: Money Attitudes
Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If so, how did you pay for it?: Yes, both of my parents have master’s degrees, and I was a very good student growing up, so it was always a given that I would pursue higher education. I have a BA and double-majored in communications and writing. I’ve covered above in the student debt section how my degree was paid for; I’m very blessed to have had my parents provide for me in this way, and I realize it has given me a huge leg up as far as savings and financial stability goes.
Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have around money? Did your parents educate you on finances?: We didn’t have a ton of conversations around money, but my parents are (as far as I can tell) very responsible with money and live well within their means, so I think I’ve learned from their example more so than from explicit instruction. We lived pretty frugally growing up, and it’s clear to me now that my parents could have had a newebigger house, nicer car, better vacations, etc, but chose not to so that they could follow through on their commitment to paying for a degree, a car, and a wedding for each of their children (which, again, has given me an enormous financial advantage in my adult life). I did have an allowance growing up and was always taught to put at least 10% toward giving, 10% to savings, and then I could do what I wanted with the rest of it, which I think was a great mindset to have from an early age.
What was your first job and why did you get it?: Maybe working the cash snack bar at our neighborhood pool when I was in middle school? I also babysat from a fairly young age. I worked a couple of other random and short-lived part-time jobs during high school and college but didn’t make much money from them and didn’t need them for my living expenses since my parents were fully supporting me.
Did you worry about money growing up?: I never worried about money growing up. If my parents had financial hardships during my childhood, they never let it show.
Do you worry about money now?: I used to worry about money a lot for the first several years of my marriage. I knew we had a good amount of money saved, but we didn’t have that money earmarked for particular things (emergency fund, travel, car maintenance, medical expenses, etc), so whenever a big expense came up, I got incredibly anxious because I didn’t really know where that money was coming from or whether this expense was leaving us vulnerable in another area. Switching to a zero-based budget and having designated savings funds for all major expenses (both recurring and unpredictable) has created an enormous amount of freedom for me with money. I don’t freak out anymore when we go to spend $1500 on plane tickets for a trip (hypothetical right now, of course) because I can see the money we have set aside in our travel fund for that exact purpose, and I know that spending that money isn’t affecting our ability to deal with an emergency because we have a separate emergency fund for that. All that to say, I don’t experience much anxiety about money anymore and I credit our budgeting system for that in a big way.
At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net?: I would consider myself financially responsible for myself once I got married, which was a few months after graduating from college. If my husband and I were to fall on hard times, both of our families would have the resources and the willingness to help us out to some extent.
Do you or have you ever received passive or inherited income? If yes, please explain.
As mentioned above, my parents opened a mutual fund for me when I was very young with I think $1000 in it, but nothing has been added to that since. I have no idea about future inheritances or anything like that.
Note: the week I documented for this diary occurred in early December--a couple of weeks earlier than the date I’m posting this. Also, masks are a given anytime we leave the apartment.
​
Day 1: Thursday
7:00am: My alarm goes off; my husband (H) and I alternate snoozing each of our alarms for the next 40 minutes, which is a loud and frequent morning ritual that leads to no additional actual sleep but at least lets us stay in bed longer.
7:40am: I remember that I start work at 8 today instead of 9 (like most days), so I jump out of bed, take a quick shower, and get dressed. H’s brother calls so he is chatting with him on the phone while I get ready.
8:00am: I sign in to work; it looks like it will be another slow day (typical for this time of year), so I need to motivate myself to work ahead on some things. Instead, I check my personal email and read the news.
8:30am: For breakfast, I make a toasted whole wheat English muffin with butter and honey, grab a handful of grapes, and make a Nespresso. I eat at my desk while I semi-work and listen to podcasts (this morning, it’s Brene Brown’s Unlocking Us and the 5-minute NPR News Now). H leaves to go into work for a few hours; there are certain things he can’t do from home, but since the pandemic, everyone in his workplace can only work in-person (masked and distanced) during an assigned shift time in order to reduce the volume of people there, so he splits his workdays between the university and our home office (which we share). Thankfully, there’s never more than a handful of people there at the same time as him and his colleagues are conscientious about following COVID protocols, so we feel pretty comfortable with him going in.
11:15am: Hungry again; I snack on Moon Cheese, which are these crunchy cheese bites that we got from Costco a month or so ago. I don’t really like them. I take a break from my computer to make the bed and tidy up our bedroom a little.
12:00pm: Lunch break--I spend the first half hour putting on makeup since I have some video calls this afternoon and evening. Pre-COVID, I considered makeup a hobby and would wear it even if I didn’t have anywhere to go or anyone to see, but a lot of the joy has been sucked out of it for me. Now, I usually just wear the bare minimum to look “presentable” on Zoom. I’m trying to have more fun with it again, though, so today I use a multichrome eyeshadow from indie brand Clionadh Cosmetics that I haven’t touched in months. Once I’m done, I have a quick lunch of a sandwich and chips before my meeting.
1:00pm: I log onto my weekly team meeting for work; H gets home partway through and brings me my Panera coffee order that he picked up on the way home. We both have a free trial of Panera’s coffee subscription right now and are taking full advantage!
4:00pm: Done with work! H has an important meeting now, so I get out of the office to give him some privacy. I start prepping chicken enchiladas for dinner.
5:30pm: The meeting went great! We eat the enchiladas and end up with a ton of leftovers. I put the food away and knock out a few dishes.
6:00pm: We get on Zoom for our weekly church small group meeting. There was a time when we felt comfortable meeting outdoors and distanced, but at this point, we’re on Zoom for the foreseeable future. Not to mention it’s cold here now.
7:30pm: Small group is done! I get an automated email from my side job letting me know that a second draft of an essay I previously worked on is available for me to edit, so I grab my computer and work on that for a little while.
8:30pm: H runs to the store for two bottles of Liquid Plumr for our shower drain (the glamour!) and red wine ($28.45). Fun fact about Wisconsin: you can’t buy alcohol from a store (anywhere that’s not a restaurant/bar) after 9pm, so he gets the wine purchase in just in time. I finish the dishes while he’s gone.
9:00pm: We put one of those 4K fireplace YouTube videos on the TV, turn on the Christmas lights, and each have a glass of wine while chatting and looking through old photos on H’s phone. H also makes some pizza rolls as a snack and I eat a couple.
11:30pm: I get ready for bed and after watching TikToks together in bed for a little while, we go to sleep.
Total: $28.45
Day 2: Friday
8:00am: Snooze my alarm for an hour before finally getting up. I am really moving slow in the mornings these days. H left to go into work around 6:30, so I have the apartment to myself for a while. I tidy up a few things around the house and spend a little while reading on the couch; the cat joins me.
9:00am: I make a Nespresso and sign on to work. I work on some tasks and send emails while listening to NPR News Now and NY Times The Daily podcasts.
10:00am: For breakfast, I have an egg over easy on toast and some grapes, again eating while I work. I spend some time reading COVID news and looking at our county’s data dashboard; our county, and Wisconsin overall, have actually been consistently trending down lately as far as cases go, which is surprising. Our plans for Christmas are still up in the air; we have been hoping and planning to visit our immediate families since we haven’t seen them in a year, but I’m still worried about the risk involved even if we are as careful as possible (quarantining beforehand, getting tested, driving instead of flying, etc). We’re putting off making a decision as long as we can.
11:30am: Our small group is “adopting” (buying Christmas gifts for) a family from a local school our church partners with, and I’ve been tasked with helping organize this, so I create a sign-up list in a Google spreadsheet to share with our group so we can keep track of what items have been purchased. I also start filling out my self-evaluation for my semi-annual review at work, which is next week. There’s twice as many questions on this evaluation compared to ones from past years (why??), so good thing I’m getting a head start.
12:15pm: I snack on Moon Cheese to tide me over until my late lunch today, but I’m still hungry afterward and craving something sweet, so I have a handful of cookies and cream popcorn that I bought a couple weeks ago to support a friend’s kid’s fundraiser (twist my arm, right).
1:00pm: Break time--I do a 20 minute full body HIIT workout from a MadFit YouTube video that really kicks my ass (my upper body and core strength is pretty dismal...I’m working on it). I shower, change, and for lunch I have leftover pesto and tomato pasta and half of an apple. We stan Honeycrisp in this household.
2:00pm: Back to work. H gets home and brings in a few packages from the mail area downstairs (one of them is a Christmas gift for him with very obviously branded packaging...oops). The other is a couple of books I ordered from Bookshop when they were having their Black Friday weekend free shipping promotion: Because Internet: Understanding the New Rules of Language by Gretchen McCulloch, which is about how the internet is changing the English language, and Dune by Frank Herbert, which I can’t believe I’ve never read but definitely want to before the movie comes out next year!
3:30pm: I knock out some tasks for work and then take a break to carry our overflowing laundry basket downstairs to the basement laundry room and start two loads. I pay using our prepaid card that we reloaded a few weeks ago, so there’s no actual cost today. As a side note, I will greatly prioritize in-unit laundry wherever we live next. I really hate lugging a heavy laundry basket up and down multiple flights of stairs (and it’s always heavy because we put it off because we hate doing it so much. Vicious cycle.)
4:00pm: Time to switch the laundry over. On my way back upstairs I check our mailbox and see that we got a letter from our bank letting us know that an instance of fraud we had reported a few months ago had been verified and the temporary credit they had applied to our account is now permanent. So that’s a relief! Thankfully there was not much money in the account to begin with (it’s one that we use for travel because there are no foreign transaction fees and they refund us any ATM fees), but this is the second time this year we’ve had an issue with fraud (different accounts and banks each time).
5:00pm: Done with work; H brings up the laundry and we fold it together. H isn’t hungry yet but I am, so for dinner, I heat up some leftover ham and potato soup (made with leftover ham from Thanksgiving...it’s leftovers all the way down!) and make a boring salad--spring mix with diced tomato and Caesar dressing.
6:00pm: We head to Costco together, stopping first to get gas for H’s car ($22.29). We only have a few things on our Costco list but end up coming home with ginger beer, sparkling water, toilet paper, paper towels, two bottles of wine, prosciutto, pains au chocolat, a Ghirardelli chocolate assortment, cinnamon cranberry goat cheese, tikka masala sauce, sundried tomatoes, and olive oil ($127.98). Several impulse buys in there for sure, but we allow ourselves some of those since we only go to Costco once a month. I was amazed that they had both TP and paper towels in stock at the same time so we couldn’t pass that up--we were getting low on both anyway.
7:00pm: Back home, we unload the groceries and put everything away. I microwave and eat one of the pains au chocolat--these were a good purchase. I pour a glass of wine, H has a beer, and we repeat the same scene as last night: fire on the TV, Christmas lights on, chatting about life and the future--these are our favorite types of nights together. Since H didn’t eat dinner and I’m still hungry too, we pull together a makeshift charcuterie plate with what we have around the house and it actually turns out pretty well! Salami, prosciutto, the cranberry cinnamon goat cheese we just bought, Boursin cheese, and crackers.
9:30pm: H mentions this game he saw someone playing on Twitch called Late Shift, which is less like a video game and more like a choose-your-own-adventure movie. We decide to download it and try it out ($13.70) and H makes Moscow mules for us to drink while we play. It’s an interesting concept but falls a little flat for us in its execution; a lot of times, you’re given two options and you choose one, but the result you get still ends up being essentially the same as if you chose the other option, so it doesn’t really feel like the choices matter--which I would think is the whole point, right? We get bored of it after a while and decide to stop halfway through and maybe pick it up again another time.
11:30pm: We both get ready for bed, scroll TikTok for a little while, then fall asleep.
Total: $163.97
Day 3: Saturday
8:30am: Both of us wake up around the same time. It’s nice to get to sleep in together; often, H has to go into work on Saturday mornings, but not today! I put on a little makeup, then H makes us coffee and I drink mine while updating our budget spreadsheet with yesterday’s purchases.
10:00am: We join a Zoom call for a standing-invitation Saturday morning virtual brunch with a few friends and friends-of-friends. I warm up a pain au chocolat and slice up the other half of the apple from yesterday and eat as discreetly as possible while we all chat.
11:15am: I say goodbye to everybody and head out to my haircut and color appointment; I haven’t been since June, so it’s definitely needed. My hairdresser and I chat about COVID and the holidays. With tip, my total is $165 (I actually mean to tip a little more but do my mental math wrong--ugh).
1:30pm: I get home from the salon and am surprised to find that the Zoom brunch hangout is still ongoing, so I pop in again to say hi. I’m super hungry, so I heat up leftover enchiladas for me and H for lunch. I feel weird about eating anything on camera really, but I definitely draw the line at eating enchiladas on camera, so I eat in the kitchen while H wraps up the Zoom call. I want something sweet so I grab a couple pieces of chocolate afterwards, too.
2:00pm: H goes in our office to play Minecraft with some friends for the rest of the afternoon. I check to see if there’s work available for my side job, but there’s nothing. It’s been the slowest week for essay volume that I can remember since I started this job, which means I definitely won’t get a paycheck for this week (I have to earn at least $100 to get paid by the end of the week; if I don’t hit $100, the amount rolls over to the next week). Having a side job like this that I can pick up and work on almost anytime is a double-edged sword in that it’s great to have that flexibility, but I also find myself feeling guilty if I have time to work and I choose to do something fun or relaxing with my free time instead.
2:30pm: I’m part of my church’s communications/social media team and I’m scheduled to put up a post today, so I spend a few minutes pulling that together on Instagram. Then I decide to check for essays one more time and I find there’s one available, so I grab it and work on that for a while. It’s a bit of a tricky one and takes me about twice as long as it should, so I finish feeling kind of frustrated.
4:00pm: I take care of a few things around the house, including unloading/reloading the dishwasher, cleaning the litterbox, and wrapping a couple of Christmas gifts. I have to put the cat in time-out because she keeps wanting to walk on the wrapping paper. I listen to an episode of the Around the NFL podcast while I work.
5:30pm: I make grilled cheese and tomato soup for dinner for me and H, and we eat together. I have some chips as well and some more chocolate. Making great choices.
6:00pm: H cleans up from dinner and does the dishes while I start reading Dune. I’ve been really wanting a fantasy novel I can lose myself in like I did as a kid, and I hope this will provide that for me. However, I definitely don’t have the attention span for reading that I did when I was younger, so I end up putting the book away to scroll on my phone for a while.
8:00pm: H and I get on a Google Meet call with some friends to play Jackbox games. We play several from the newest party pack; they’re super fun and it goes really smoothly over the video call (hasn’t always been the case when we’ve tried this in the past).
10:30pm: We say goodnight to our friends and wrap up the call. H goes back to Minecraft for a little while, and I catch myself scrolling mindlessly through my phone again and decide to just put it away for the night. I often find myself getting frustrated and annoyed lately by how much I’m on my phone for no good reason, so I’ve been trying to put it completely away for a while when I feel that way. I put my phone on the charger, wash my face, and put on a sheet mask.
11:45pm: I don’t remember how we spend the rest of the evening, but we still end up staying up pretty late (for us). Oddly, I don’t feel tired at all, but once in bed I fall asleep immediately.
Total: $165
Day 4: Sunday
8:30am: We’re both awake; I must have slept really well because I feel more rested than I have in a while. H gets in the shower and I grab my phone to review my fantasy football lineup before the games this afternoon. My team got off to a strong start but has been on a losing streak the second half of the season; I’m no longer in the running for a playoff appearance, but it’s still fun week to week.
9:00am: H has to quickly stop by work so he leaves for a little while. I make coffee in the Chemex and drink it while reading Reddit and looking at emails. I also redeem our credit card cashback for the past month and update our budget spreadsheet (total from two cards is $87.96).
9:45: H is on his way home from work and calls to see if we want to get food along with our Panera coffee orders. That sounds good to me, so I place my order and get a breakfast sandwich: bacon, egg, and cheese on brioche, and hazelnut coffee with half and half. Since the coffee is free, my total with tip comes to $6.50. H’s is $5.26.
10:00am: I turn on the YouTube livestream of our church’s Sunday service; H gets home shortly after it starts with our Panera coffee and breakfast. My order is slightly wrong--ciabatta bread rather than brioche--which isn’t a huge deal at all but contributes to the ongoing experience that whenever we order takeout food, my order is almost always wrong and H’s never is. It’s kind of a running joke at this point because it’s happened so many times since COVID. We eat while watching the church livestream.
11:30am: After church, we turn on the pregame coverage for whatever NFL game is available in our area (it’s Lions-Bears), and I purchase a Christmas gift I’ve been considering for a while for a friend: a set of specialty cocktail bitters from Bittercube, which is based in WI. It comes out to $40.89 with shipping. I pick up an essay to edit and work on that for a little while with the game on in the background, occasionally checking my fantasy score (as expected, it’s not looking great).
1:30pm: For lunch, I make a salad with spring mix, prosciutto, dates, walnuts, goat cheese, and homemade cider date dressing. We switch to watching the Jaguars-Vikings game since H and I both have players in this game on our fantasy teams. I also grab another short essay to edit; I’m glad I’ve been able to pick up at least a few over the weekend.
3:00pm: I spend a while working on a cross-stitch project while watching the Packers-Eagles game. I grew up in a home where sports were always on TV on weekends/evenings, so there’s something comforting and familiar to me about having football on in the background even if I’m not always paying attention. Once I get bored of cross-stitching, I snack on some of the cookies and cream popcorn and watch the game while wasting time on my laptop. I read that Rudy Giuliani has COVID and can’t help but relish the schadenfreude a little.
5:00pm: I get an email from Target that something I had viewed was on sale; it’s the Anova sous vide we had been considering buying for H’s mom for Christmas. With the sale price, two additional 10% off promotions, and the tiny amount of Target Circle earnings on my account, it comes out to $84.01 all told. I purchase it for pickup at our local store; H will get it on his way back from work tomorrow.
6:00pm: Inspired by a TikTok recipe, I decide to pull out my Instant Pot and make creamy garlic parmesan chicken pasta. I have a glass of wine while I cook.
7:00pm: We eat in front of the TV while watching the start of the Sunday Night Football game. The pasta is delicious; I meant to make a veggie side to go with it but forgot. Carbs it is! I also warm up some leftover pumpkin crisp from Thanksgiving for dessert.
7:30pm: H cleans up from dinner, sweeps the kitchen, and takes out the trash. I spend the evening reading Dune and watching the rest of the game. When the game is over, H makes us whiskey sours and we watch TikToks and hang out for a while.
11:45pm: We finally make it to bed. I lay awake for a long time trying to imagine how I would even go about telling my mom we aren’t coming for Christmas if that’s what we decide. There’s no scenario in which that goes well.
Total: $136.66
Day 5: Monday
7:45am: I’m up, I’m up. No shower yet because I plan to work out at lunchtime. H has already made coffee and we hang out for a little while as we drink it.
9:00am: H leaves for work and I sign on to work. I actually have a decent amount to do today. For breakfast, I have some grapes and a warmed-up pain au chocolat.
10:30am: I’m browsing YouTube for something to put on in the background while I work and I see an SNL skit from this past weekend called “The Christmas Conversation” in my recommended feed. It’s exactly what I expect it to be and it both makes me laugh and want to cry--very relevant to my late-night imaginings yesterday.
12:30pm: One of my Christmas presents arrives: the first delivery of a Winc wine subscription. I don’t mind it not being a surprise; I specifically asked for this and I already knew H was getting it for me because he had to ask me to take the quiz about my wine preferences. I won’t open it until Christmas, though.
1:00pm: On my break, I do a 12-minute intense full body HIIT workout (another MadFit one), and the “intense” description in the title is accurate. That’s enough for me for one day, so I just pedal on our stationary bike for a few minutes to cool down before taking a shower. H gets home with our Panera coffees; I got iced coffee this time. I’m ravenously hungry from my workout, to the point of feeling a little faint, so I heat up pasta from last night for lunch, then end up grabbing some chips and a couple pieces of chocolate, too.
2:00pm: I try to buckle down and get some work done in the afternoon. At least what I have to do today is self-paced tasks rather than anything urgent or time-sensitive. I make some more progress on my self-evaluation and give some thought to what I want the next year at my job to look like. I have increasingly had opportunities to work with departments outside of support as my time at this company has gone on, and those opportunities tend to be the most gratifying parts of my job because I’m better able to use my skill set there and do work I enjoy. Ideally, I would eventually transition mostly or completely out of support and into some sort of role within the company where I can do more writing and editing (which is what I do a lot of in these side projects), but I don’t know if that will ever be a possibility.
5:00pm: For dinner after work, it’s leftovers again. I read Dune for a little while followed by sweeping the bathroom floor and vacuuming the rugs.
6:30pm: My mom wanted to catch up today so I give her a call. I have to reiterate to her that we are feeling hesitant about traveling for the holidays, but it’s clear she is not going to go down without a fight on this, and I can hear how upset she is. I try to be clear and firm about my concerns, but she’s my mom, so I also feel like I have to concede to her points wherever I can and not push things too hard. I get off the call feeling physically sick to my stomach.
7:15pm: H and I talk about Christmas and he is adamant that if we do go, my parents need to commit to at least a “soft” quarantine (no nonessential interactions/outings) for 10 days before we arrive because they are being pretty irresponsible in our view about who they see and what they do right now. Knowing what we do now about their own exposure, it’s becoming clear that they are almost certainly a bigger danger to us than we are to them. I text my mom and let her know about those ground rules (while still not committing to anything), and she seems open to that plan and asks some questions about what we are and aren’t comfortable with. I think she will do whatever she needs to for us to come, which we may be able to use to our advantage.
11:15pm: I feel totally drained from my conversation with my mom and my anxiety about the holidays, so I spend the rest of the evening vegging on the couch and watching Monday Night Football. I make a cup of peppermint tea and have a stroopwafel, and we eventually head to bed.
Total: $0
Day 6: Tuesday
5:30am: H had to leave for work really early today, which inevitably woke me up, and I think it threw the cat off too because while I try to go back to sleep, she spends the next couple of hours really leaning into her chaotic energy--tearing around the room at warp speed, jumping on the dresser, scratching the side of the bed and the walls. This used to be a common problem very early in the mornings but hasn’t happened in a while.
8:30am: The cat eventually chills tf out and I get maybe an hour more of sleep. I read news on my phone and respond to a few texts. I am feeling a little calmer today about holiday plans, but now H is texting me about how anxious he is feeling about everything. That’s the secret to marriage--just try not to both be freaking out at the same time. (Kinda joking, but kinda not?)
9:00am: I make a Nespresso and start work. For breakfast, I have an egg over easy on toast and some grapes. I feel so unfocused and unmotivated today, but I do submit my self-evaluation and make progress on some other tasks. I take a break to snuggle with my cat; I haven’t talked about her a lot in this diary but she’s my buddy and basically my shadow. She is super attached to me and her affection makes her wild antics worth it.
1:00pm: Aaaand as soon as I say something nice about her, she throws up on the bed. I clean it up and put the comforter and sheets in the laundry basket. I guess we’re doing laundry again. On my break, I edit a short essay revision and make boxed mac and cheese for lunch. H gets home with our Panera coffees and we split the mac and cheese.
5:00pm: I force myself to be reasonably productive throughout the afternoon. After work, I run out to do a few errands--I pick up a prescription from the Walgreens pharmacy drive-through ($2.68, I pay with my HSA), and I run into Target to get shampoo and conditioner for myself and a few things for H’s stocking ($55 even). Target is surprisingly deserted which is nice, and I’m able to get in and out quickly.
6:00pm: H did the laundry while I was gone, and we fold it together and remake the bed when I get home. I fill H’s stocking with the items I bought, which completes all of my gifts for him for this year.
7:00pm: We’re both tired of leftovers, so H suggests we make another charcuterie plate and have that for dinner. I have a small salad as well, and we eat while we watch...Tuesday Night Football? What a weird season. There’s a slim chance I could still win my fantasy game this week, so I’m somewhat invested in this game. I have a glass of wine.
10:00pm: I do not win my fantasy game. We get in bed at a reasonable hour but spend a while reading; I read a little of Well-Read Black Girl, which is a collection of essays that is my “nightstand” read at the moment, and a little of Dune. Lights out around 11.
Total: $57.68
Day 7: Wednesday
7:45am: Up and at ‘em. I shower, make coffee in the Chemex, blow-dry my hair, and read a little.
9:00am: H leaves for work, and I start work and make myself an English muffin with butter and honey and half of an apple for breakfast. I listen to an episode of The Daily podcast about the first doses of the COVID vaccine being administered in the UK. It’s hard to wrap my mind around the idea that we’ve finally reached this point, even though it’s still going to take a long time for things to feel anything like normal again for most people.
11:30am: I’m scheduled for another church social media post, and I fumble around in Illustrator for a while trying to get the image to look the way I want. I know there’s a ton of free basic courses/tutorials out there on how to use it, and I would probably get way more out of it and get less frustrated if I just went through one of those one weekend. H is pretty proficient in Illustrator, so he often helps me. I snack on some chips and the cat tries to as well.
1:00pm: The weather is mild today (upper 40s, sunny, and no wind), so I take a walk around the neighborhood on my lunch break and listen to The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I have a sandwich and grapes for lunch when I get back.
2:00pm: H gets home with our Panera coffees right as I am getting back to work. He grabbed lunch out today, which cost $11.09. We both go online and book free COVID tests for next week, a few days before our tentative departure date for Christmas.
5:00pm: I have a steadily busy afternoon of work, but I get everything done. After work, I browse Etsy for a Christmas gift for a friend and land on a cute London-themed tea towel; we and our spouses were supposed to go to London together earlier this year and are hoping we can still make the trip happen next year. It’s coming from the UK, so shipping is expensive; the total comes out to $27.38. I don’t know if it will arrive before Christmas, but I don’t think I’ll see this friend to give it to her until after Christmas anyway.
6:00pm: Dinner is...you guessed it, leftovers. We finish off the enchiladas. Normally I would do a lot more cooking in a week, but I’ve just happened to make several meals lately that created a lot of leftovers.
8:00pm: Quiet evening at home. H has some work to do tonight from home; I read Dune and scroll Reddit for a while. I edit a short essay. H finishes wrapping my Christmas gifts and we hang out for a while.
11:00pm: We chat with some friends in a group text before eventually heading to bed.
Total: $38.47
At the end of each day please tally up your daily expenses. Then at the end of your diary please tally up all expenses in the following categories:
Food + Drink: $127.10
Fun / Entertainment: $13.70
Home + Health: $74.76
Clothes + Beauty: $165
Transport: $22.29
Other (all gifts): $187.38
Lastly, reflect on your diary! How do you feel about your spending? Was this a normal week for you? Has this inspired you to make changes or has it given you a “wow I’m doing pretty good” confidence boost? Is there anything you’re actively working on? No need to answer any or all these questions but just use this space to write any thoughts you have!
There are some outliers here as far as spending goes because of the gift purchases and the hair appointment which only comes around every 4-5 months, but beyond that, this was pretty normal weekly spending for us. Interestingly, I felt more self-conscious about sharing what I ate than about anything money-related--I tend to think of myself as a fairly healthy eater but I don't think that was the case this week!

Money history: I come from a family that has absolutely no money sense. My mom raised 3 kids as a single mom, and as a snapshot we often had power turned off for a few days or barely any food. When she eventually remarried and became a high earner, she still lived paycheck to paycheck. Money was not talked about and the example was to spend it while you had it. My dad similarly had no money sense. Both of my parents highly stressed the importance of going to college, as both didn’t finish high school. I had no support in really much of anything growing up, and figured it all out the long and hard way on my own. I did drag myself through community college to a 4 year degree at a university, but not without irresponsible loans and a late realized FAFSA error that kept me from grants for almost my entire time as a student. I didn’t start learning about money until my 30’s. I have heavily relied on online resources to educate myself and work on getting myself out of debt. I am super proud of how far I’ve come.
Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement Balance: $0.00 I had some from 2 different previous jobs, but cashed them out at times when I was financially strapped (before I learned about managing my money!). We are moving this coming summer into an inherited house. We will get all debt paid off within one year (except my student loans). Once that happens, our goal is to put 50% away into savings/retirement. My husband also has not contributed.
Equity if you're a homeowner: We rent. We will inherit a house next summer in the sense that we will live there for free and have any house repairs will be paid for, but we won’t own it until way in the future.
Savings account balance: $10,650 (this was $0 six years ago and about $4,000 at the beginning of Covid-19). We realized we needed an emergency fund after covid hit, and then decided to put as much as possible here towards our move. We used to have multiple savings accounts with sub-categories, but we realized by putting it all in one account we were motivated by seeing a large number grow. We still have to access it for regular things, like the vet which you will see in this diary. This works for us.
Checking account balance: $1803.18
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): Yikes. The biggest regret of my life. I owe $9,065. My husband owes $7,318. Mine was accumulated from years of having absolutely no idea how to deal with money, not understanding saving, and basically financing my 20’s on credit. In the last three years we have paid off about $12,000 in credit card debt as we have become financially literate and started working towards financial goals. My husband’s debt was accumulated during his divorce, which was money well spent IMO!
Student loan debt (for what degree): I have $42,794 and my husband has $4,431. I have a degree in English, and he did not finish his degree. I loved earning this degree, but would 100% go back and do a STEM related degree, or a trade.
All of our finances and bills are completely shared and managed by me.
Section Two: $43,000 per year
Income Progression: I am not going to be too specific because I know a lot of people that read this sub-reddit.
2002 – 2006 $10 per hour at a box store
2006 – 2010 $29,000 per year at a small local company
2010 – 2011 $10,000 per year finishing university, lived rent free
2011 – 2015 $30,000 up to $50,000 through a salary evaluation that they did, and moving into a more client facing role that brought in more money.
2016 – 2020 $43,000 through main job and side jobs
This is really hard to explain because I have been all over the place. I used to have a much better paying job, closer to $60,000 with side job, but I went through a horrible depression and left that job. I started nannying and then house managing 5 years ago, and it was too comfortable to leave. I loved not being on a computer! Part of why I agreed to moving is to force me out of this job, that I am not happy or fulfilled in. I am actively looking for a job that is remote and I can keep when we move.
Monthly Take Home: $5,640 after all deductions
Main Job
Me: $2050 for 30 hours of work per week after basic taxes.
W: $2540, after taxes for both of us and insurance for both of us. I am honestly not sure on every single deduction, as it’s a lot, but we pay around $350 a month in insurance for the two of us.
Side Gig Monthly Take Home
I have a salaried side job that is $750 a month, and through other odds and ends I make another $300 a month on average.
Any Other Monthly Income Here
I use my sisters Hulu, my mom’s Netflix and my boss’s HBO Max. We actually do have our own free Hulu through Spotify, but hers is ad free. I pay for Amazon which my whole family uses.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent: $1730 for a 2 bedroom apartment
Storage Unit: $43
Car insurance, renters insurance and life insurance: $156
Car payment: $353 for new car, purchased certified pre-owned. The 2nd car, which I drive, was paid for in cash. It’s oooold but does the job. We owe $7829.95 on the new car, with a little less than two years left on the 1% loan we have.
Savings contribution: $1000. This varies by month and expenses that come up, but since covid it has been over $1000 a month. Before we were putting that money towards debt, but stopped to save for the move and an emergency fund.
Electric and alternating WateSeweGarbage: $200
Wifi/Cable/Security: $143
Cellphone: $110
Gym membership: Paid for by my main job
Pet expenses: recently more, $100 a month at this point
Spotify and MLB radio package: $15 per month
Debt payments: This is above the minimum on all of them
$300 Visa 1
$200 Visa 2
$100 Visa 3
$Balance Visa 4, this is a rewards card that is paid off at each pay check
$75 LOC
$320 Student loans (Me) on hold due to covid
$139 Student loans (W) on hold due to covid
Yearly Expenses:
Costco ($60 yearly)
Amazon ($120 yearly)
Oil changes ($90x 4 yearly)
Tabs ($550 yearly)
MLB subscription ($90 yearly)
NHL Subscription ($140 yearly)
Learned league ($30 yearly)
Microsoft office ($70 yearly)
Zoo membership ($110 yearly)
At the end of each day please tally up your daily expenses. Then at the end of your diary please tally up all expenses in the following categories:
Food + Drink: $261.18
Fun / Entertainment:
Home + Health: $2.82
Clothes + Beauty: $44.84
Transport: $51.02
Other: $218.93
Lastly, reflect on your diary! This week had more spending than normal due to the vet bill and the gift for my mother-in-law. That said, I am consistently disappointed in how much we are spending. I try SO HARD to spend less every month, and while we are trending way down in spending, it seems like there are always so many expenses that come up. Food also continues to be a huge expense during Covid. We enjoy cooking great meals, and it has been hard to cut back our grocery budget – which is where we spend most of our money. I also have some leftover issues from food insecurity as a kid, and I love being able to buy groceries and have options. This week was also driven up by a Saturday out, which we have only done 3 times since Covid, so I don’t feel too bad about this expense. We want to pay debt and save, but also enjoy our lives as much as possible.
On R29 people really seem to freak out when you mention your significant other a lot, but also freak out if you seem in an unhappy relationship. My husband is my best friend and I am obsessed with my cat, but I mostly left them out of this. I also ALWAYS wear a mask, use hand sanitizer, don’t go in anyone’s house ever, etc. We take Covid-19 very seriously and feel lucky to live in a state that is also taking is seriously.
Day 1: Pay Day
6:45am Wake up with my sunrise alarm clock and feel intense dread at needing to apply for a job a friend has recommended me for. This job is a stretch for me and I really don’t have the mental energy for this this morning.
7:15am: Finally roll out of bed and drink my leftover pour-over from yesterday as cold coffee with cream and eat a bowl of frosted mini wheats.
7:30am: Today is pay day so I log on to pay all my bills, which I love doing! I remember a time, not so long ago, I would just not even pay bills or put them off for as long as possible – which now seems so absurd! I look forward to pay day and knocking these things out for the month. I pay the balance on my rewards credit card, move money to savings, pay one of my visa cards, and Zelle my brother money for our phone bill. The plan is actually in my husband’s name but my brother set up his card for the automatic payments. This is fine with me since my sister never remembers to pay.
9:30am: Work, work work (while listening to podcast or audio book, always and forever).
12:00: Run to grab fish for my work family’s dinner and some hot food for my lunch from a high end grocery store. I end up getting myself some Okonomiyaki to eat for $3.99. They are also featuring lots of local restaurants and they have a famous coconut cream pie from a local place so I grab a mid-sized one to bring to a friends for her birthday today $16.99. Other grocery items go on work credit card. ($21.39)
3:30: Leave work and head home to prepare chili for dinner. I slow cooked beef chuck overnight in crushed tomatoes so it goes quickly.
5:00pm: Head to friend’s house to drop off birthday pie. Stop by the fancy pet store to get food for main side job and pick up $75 worth of cat food that goes on work card.
6:30pm: Home and eat chili with sour cream, cheddar and Budget Bytes freezer biscuits while watching the new Adam Sandler Halloween movie. I follow it up with some hot chocolate.
7:30pm: Feeling restless and decide to take a bath and listen to Crime Junkies podcast. After this I use our new Sonic massage gun on W’s back and then grab my computer and get in bed to finally apply for that job.
10:00pm: Finish up the application after a burst of creative energy and hit submit. Check email accounts for other side jobs and send some emails. Close the computer around 11pm, listen to Crime Junkies and fall asleep around midnight.
Daily Total: $21.39
Day 2:
7:45am: wake up from a dream that I had a new job working for Post Malone, but actually he and I were pulling an elaborate prank on a mutual friend. Okay? FaceTime my sister and niece to say good morning and drag myself out of bed. Drink some homemade chai I made this weekend and eat bowl of frosted mini-wheats while I chat with my sister.
8:20am: I see an email alert that my credit score has changed. Down 10 points??? Log on to see that it calculated my debt ratio while the payment on the card I use for monthly expenses was pending. So annoying. I also see that my main email account password has been published on the dark web since Monday. so I quickly log in and change passwords on multiple accounts and use the Gmail feature to do a security check. I see have 3 log ins for a chase account that I do not understand at all. I think these are from an old work credit card, but I make a note to call them.
9:15am: Leave for work with my hair looking like Legolas. Oh well.
9:30am: Arrive at work and make myself a latte and an americano for my boss on their espresso machine.
11:45am: Run to drop off an amazon return at a locker and pick up some supplies for my meeting with main side job, but the cost goes on my (other) work credit card (bill goes directly to them). Do some grocery shopping for work family and it goes on work card. I also pick up some fancy canned heirloom beans that went on sale for half off, milk and sleepy time tea for $7.25.
12:30pm: Back to work and make lunch for me and the kids.
3:30pm: Off work and head to a meeting at main side job. Drive to her house listening to Crime Junkies! I’m on a binge.
6:30pm: Leave meeting after preparing for some upcoming projects and taking about Schitt’s Creek a bunch. She also gives me a new hoodie and fancy water bottle that she doesn’t want. I see an email back from an interview I did earlier this week asking me back for a second interview next week – YAY!
6:45pm: My friend, P, just moved back to Seattle from the east coast and text me and asks me to meet up for a drink with our friend, S. I drive to the lake and meet them at an outside corner table. I don’t drink a ton so I only have one cocktail and a grilled cheese with small salad. $24.78 with 25% tip. My friend P also orders me a hot chocolate, but she covers this.
10: 30pm: Home, check emails and put out a couple fires. I take the time, now that I am on my computer, to email back the place I am interviewing to thank them for asking me back and give them my preferred times out of those they offered. It will be 2 hour zoom interview with multiple groups of their staff.
11:20pm: Lights out with Crime Junkies. I have a problem.
Daily Total: $32.03
Day 3:
7:00am: Wake up and make coffee in the Chemex. I make this every couple days and drink half fresh and hot, then save the other half to drink iced the next day. I eat oatmeal I bought at the beginning of the pandemic when I thought we should have a few shelf stable items in case we had to fully quarantine (if we had covid-19). To be clear, it was not a hoarding situation. I bought a few cans of beans, a couple things of pasta and sauce, oatmeal and a bag of rice. We have gone through all of it except the pasta sauce (since I normally make my own) and the oatmeal.
8:00am: Check work emails and do some work for my side jobs. Read Reddit for a while and finally get ready for work.
9:30am: Arrive at work and it’s busy all day.
12:30pm: Make a lunch of frozen dumplings for everyone, then take one of the kids, N, to the store with me as the kids want a treat. We grab last minute groceries for their family and Starbucks for the kids and myself. They each get a refresher and I get an iced chai with pumpkin spice foam on top and it is OUT OF THIS WORLD SO GOOD. My sister had seen this on Tik Tok and I feel blessed to know about it. This is paid for on my work card. I also need a bulk spice so I stop at the co-op and get that for work, as well as some Japanese yams, mushrooms, bulk corn meal and bulk polenta for myself. $12.87
4:00pm: Finally off work after a long afternoon. Stop at the grocery store because I forgot butter. I use the app to get some coupons so end up with regular butter, European butter, buttermilk, and klondike bars for $5.01 with a 50% off buttermilk since it expires tomorrow and a $5 credit on the app. Always check the app! $5.01
5:00pm: Home and running a meeting for a side job. There are 5 of us and it’s fun to meet some new people that I have been working with over email for months.
6:00pm: Meeting is over and start making skillet cornbread to go with the leftover chili. Usually I am on constantly listening to audio books but as you can tell I am on a podcast kick, which happens occasionally when something engages me. We eat dinner while watching Friends (the one where Joey and Rachel nearly hook up, WTF).
7:15pm: I take a long and luxurious bath.
8:30pm: Play a few rounds of a new (gifted) board game with W called Azul and we are hooked right away. The pieces are very satisfying, which will make sense if you are into board games. Do recommend.
10:00pm: Lights out.
Daily Total: $17.88
Day 4: 7:30am: I have the day off! YAY. I actually have a very abnormal amount of things going on this weekend so I still get up early because I have some stuff I want to get done today. I eat leftover cornbread for breakfast and facetime my mom and sister for about an hour while I eat, drink the cold coffee from yesterday, and check emails.
8:30am: W’s mom’s birthday is next week, and his parents are extremely generous with us, like too generous, so we try to give them nice birthday presents. I order a set of 2 olive oils from Brightland with 2 of the trendy spouts they have. Total cost is $95.98. This goes on my card for rewards, but will essentially come out of savings. $95.98
12:00pm: I spent the morning making Smitten Kitchen buttermilk biscuits (to freeze) with the buttermilk that “expires” today (it’s still fine a week later). I make half of the dough with cheddar and chives and freeze all but two. I eat one while it is piping hot, obviously. I work a little on this money diary, planning out my weekend, and watering my many, many…many plants. Head out at noon to the vet.
12:15pm: Very quick trip to the vet to get a blood draw on Z. They pick him up out of the car, I pay over the phone, and the whole thing is over in 5 minutes. Cost is $108.75. I pay with credit card for rewards, but this will come out of savings as well. $108.75
12:30pm: Home to drop off cat, and pick up a bag of Nordstrom returns for main side job. I head to the Rack to do the returns and end up doing a little shopping for myself since I am there. I get 4 Burberry lip colors for $7 each (2 for me, 1 each for my nanny kids. They love branded makeup), 2 hair clips, 1 fun headband and a pair of super cute Hudson jeans on super clearance for my niece for $4. Total cost is $44.84. I put this on my Nordstrom card and put a reminder on my calendar to make a payment in 2 days when it is no longer a pending charge. $44.84
2:00pm: W gets home from work and we talk for a while before he takes a shower and a nap. I continue to work on my side jobs.
3:15pm: I eat one of the cheddascallion biscuits from earlier with some sliced local mole salami for lunch. I text with my friend, T, about meeting up her and her husband at a brewery tomorrow and research locations with covered outdoor seating.
5:30pm: After fielding calls for a work emergency for my main side job and tidying up around the house, I go hard down a rabbit hole of FBI’s most wanted criminals on their website while drinking a Kitty Cat Blues beer. Look up and am surprised that it’s been 2 hours! Oops. Check the mail and see that my check has come from one of my side jobs. It’s for $265 which will basically cover the birthday gift and vet visit from today. Instead of going into savings like it normally would, I will deposit to checking and make an extra payment on my credit card.
6:00pm: W wakes up from his nap and we start playing our friends trivia on Twitch. In between the forms he sets up on his website I somehow manage to click a spam add and my computer starts freaking out an popping up all these warnings and freezing up. I am super pissed and spend the next hour running various scans.
7:00pm: I put frozen dumplings I made last week into the air fryer and steam some broccoli for dinner. We eat while we continue playing trivia and then do a call with W’s cousin. While on the phone we learn that he is having trouble reading small font in books (he is a person with a disability), so I tell him I will send him an e-reader that we don’t use so he can enlarge the font and get free books from the library. I set him up for a library card online and promise to set it up this weekend and send it next week. I also fill out his unemployment for the week, which I am managing for him. W cleans up while I do this.
8:30pm: I run more tests on my computer and we spend a couple hours playing Azul. I eat a Reece’s Klondike bar and drink another Kitty Kat Blues while we play. I work on this money diary a little bit and text with my best friend. We head to bed around midnight.
Daily Total: $249.57
Day 5:
8:15am: Wake up to my alarm and get ready to go a shredding event. I have a bag of our own paper items and several computers from a side job. I get ready and head out to the next city up the freeway to go to the event. The line is super long but it goes quickly. This is a free event so there is no fee.
9:30am: Meet my friend across the street at Starbucks. I get another of the iced chai pumpkin chai with the egg bites. I use points for the drink but spend $5.01 on the egg bites. We sit in the car with the windows all down and masks on when we aren’t drinking and catch up. $5.01
11:15am: Head home and stop at the Costco in this city for gas, as it is does much less volume and there is no wait. I fill up W’s car for $31.02.
12:00pm: Pick up W and head to an outdoor brewery to meet friends for lunch. We order Shake Shack ahead on the app, 2 burgers, 1 hotdog, 1 fry and 1 shake for $27.69 after a discount code I find online. We spend about 3 hours at the brewery catching up. One beer for me, four for W and one for our friend totals $52.
4:00pm: Home and facetime W’s parents for a while before I do a work zoom with a new volunteer from 6-7:45pm. I don’t love doing this on the weekend but in showing him how to do a bunch of my work, I get ahead for next week, which is fantastic. I also like making money.
8:00pm: W had walked to the local grocery store but forgot his wallet, so I meet him when my zoom is over. We get 2 delicata squash, broccoli, bananas, apples, pears, 1 cabbage, 2 russet potatoes, 1 green bell pepper, brussels sprouts, celery, 2 sweet potatoes, jalapenos, ellenos large yogurt, 6 small yogurts, cottage cheese, ground turkey, a pound of coffee, pretzels, 2 packs English muffins, cool whip, and an apple pie kit kat bar for $53.34.
8:45pm: Late dinner of lumpia that a friend dropped off for us a couple weeks and we froze. They come out perfect in the air fryer with no oil, with steamed broccoli on the side. I resist dessert after the milkshake and a tummy ache earlier. We watch American Utopia – the Spike Lee directed David Byrne concert and head to be around 12:30pm.
Daily Total: $169.06
Day 6:
9:55am: Wake up just in time to set my fantasy football lineup. This NFL season is absolutely absurd and it makes me so sad to see all these players getting injured. I start coffee and make breakfast sandwiches with the savory frozen buttermilk biscuits from earlier this week. I sauté mushrooms to go on the side. I want to listen to my podcast so I spend the morning meal prepping lunches for W – sauteed onion, Thai peppers, jalapeno, broccoli, delicata squash, and ground turkey over brown rice. I also make the Comforting Cabbage, Onion and Farro soup, from the 6 Seasons cookbook by Joshua McFadden cookbook, to have on hand this week.
4:00pm: I play Imposter with my sister and her friends while I snack on some pretzels and make myself a Frappuccino with the chai I made last weekend, some vital proteins collagen powder, maple syrup and ice. It turns out really good and helps my migraine. W walks to the store to pick up his medications ($2.82) as well as a wedge of parmesan and brown rice ($12.98). $15.80
6:00pm: I cook up two salmon fillets in the air fryer as well as some of the brussels sprouts. I freaking love our air fryer. It has 2 racks instead of a drawer and everything turns out so perfect. We top the brussels sprouts with balsamic glaze and add a bowl of the cabbage soup on the side with some freshly shaved parmesan. W watches Monsterland and I play more Imposter before getting up to sit at the desk and check emails and work on this money diary. At some point W makes air popper popcorn for us to snack on and I eat a Reece’s Klondike bar.
9:30pm: W goes to bed and I continue working on my side jobs as well as reconfiguring the Kindle for W’s cousin. I also pay the charge on my Nordstrom card. I get in bed around 11 and play Imposter before going to sleep around 12:30am. I deeply regret the afternoon chai.
Daily Total: $15.80
Day 7:
7:15am: Sleep in a little before getting up and drinking the coffee I prepared last night so I wouldn’t have to this morning. Thank you past me. I eat some homemade granola with the Ellenos yogurt – it is extremely tart and not edible this way, so I slice up one of the Japanese sweet potatoes and bake that instead. I will have to make tzatziki or bake something with the yogurt. I facetime my sister and niece while we all get ready for the day.
9:30am: Busy morning at work. At some point head out to grab them some groceries and I get 3 cans of beans, hot chili oil, a cucumber, garlic, and 3 blood oranges to bring to a friend with a bottle of champagne tonight – her 30th birthday is coming up next week. $11.13.
12:30pm: I take the kids to lunch at Chipotle. The shut down the street at this outdoor shopping center and have tables spread out under a tent, so we eat there. This cost is covered by work, but I decide to get us some Chocolate & Mochi Xiao Long Bao from Din Tai Fung to share. $8.76 with tip. I regret this purchase due to the price tag, not the taste. YUM. I also stop at Paper Source to pick up an RBG birthday card for my mother in law, and this butterfly that will fly out of the card when she opens it. $14.20. $22.96
3:30pm: Off work and stop by local co-op to purchase some pork chops for hot and sour soup tonight. I also get a tiny but of swiss cheese from the “ends” section to have with some salami when I get home. Really craving protein today!! $7.97. My gas light goes on, so I do tomorrow morning me a favor and stop for gas. $20 even and this will last me 2 weeks. $27.97
6:00pm: After charcuterie and hot and sour soup, we pack up hot chocolate and warm clothes to head to an outdoor trivia our friend is hosting. We clip some rosemary on the way out to go with the blood oranges and champagne for our friend, when we realize we don’t have a bottle of champagne. We almost always keep some on hand for gifts! We stop at a gas station and get a bottle of Cooks for $11 even (smh).
9:00pm: Our friend does a phenomenal job transforming her backyard into a socially distanced trivia oasis and I feel like I am part of an incredibly cool secret society.
11:00pm: When we get home I take a hot bath and play Among Us with my sister and then get straight to bed thinking about how old I am after a satisfying teeth brushing with a new toothbrush head.
Daily Total: $73.06
Weekly Total: $578.79

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We heave reached my positional breakdown for the 2020 NFL Draft - the much-discussed quarterback class. I don't see this group of four at the top everybody is talking about - to me there are two top ten prospects at the position, two guys I have a second-round grade on and then four more QBs, who I would even consider on day two.

1. Joe Burrow, LSU

This guy’s intelligence to determine defensive looks pre-snap and the accuracy to carve those up is outstanding. He quickly processes information and gets the ball out of his hands. Burrow has a tremendous ability of throwing his receivers open with ball-placement, even against some really tight coverage, putting the ball to the back-shoulder or away from the leverage of defenders. He just finds open space and trusts his receivers to get there. He is at his best on those rainbow balls over the top of the defense, that always seem to drop right into the hands of his streaking receivers. Burrow also doesn’t mind checking it down to his back when the mental clock runs out instead of forcing the ball into a window that simply isn’t there. In the National Championship game versus Clemson it was the first time all year that he looked a like shook at the start, but once that explosive offense started rolling, not even one of the best defenses in the country could slow them down. As good as he is on schedule, what really makes Burrow special is the way he can make things happen when plays break down.
Burrow has some of the best pocket presence I have seen from any quarterback I have ever scouted. You see him shuffle, hitch up and fade when necessary, while keeping two hands on the ball at all times. He has a great feel for when he has to retreat to buy himself that little bit of extra time to float the ball and he also spins out the backdoor quite a bit to escape that way. Burrow only fumbled four times last year on almost 600 drop-backs and despite taking some big hits in the open field. While he did break the all-time single-season record with 60 passing touchdowns last season, he also added five more on the ground. He is an extremely tough and weirdly elusive runner, who burned defenses routinely for crucial conversions. He also shows some deceptive speed to take a crease once he takes off and defenders seem to be surprised looking at their angles, averaging 8.6 yards per scramble. While he obviously was great at carving up defenses from the pocket, he made some incredible plays off script, scrambling towards the sideline and somehow still finding somebody for a nice gain. Burrow doesn’t seem to be afraid of anybody or anything. He is country-strong, shaking off tacklers and standing strong inside the pocket or taking off and got straight up after taking some huge shots at the sideline.
Among all draft-eligible quarterbacks in this class, Burrow is the only one whose passer rating actually went up when he was under pressure last season (-30.2 on average for the top 17). Burrow came through in all the big games for LSU last season. He hit Justin Jefferson for a huge game-clinching touchdown on third-and-17 in the Texas game. He made a bunch of plays off script in that huge showdown at Alabama to keep the chains moving and always found a way to answer when the Crimson Tide looked to pull even again. Even in the National Championship versus Clemson, when it took up until about the middle of the second quarter to understand what DC Brett Venables wanted to do to him, he still managed to throw five touchdowns and make the final result pretty convincing. And then he obviously put together one of the most incredible performances ever by any college quarterback, when he dismantled the Oklahoma defense in the Peach Bowl, scoring touchdowns through the first three quarters only.
With that being said, Burrow does not have the elite arm strength to drive passes from one hash to the opposite sideline as powerful as some other guys can. That lack of a laser also probably led to the game-deciding pick-six in the 2018 Florida game, where it allowed the DB to undercut an out-route. Burrow had great pocket integrity and as good a skill position group as anybody in the country for all of 2019. He also had the benefit of playing for one of the better group of offensive minds in Joe Brady and Steve Ensminger, where it was rather easy to decipher defenses with a lot of check-motions and pass-catchers being schemed free, while also having a receiver going in the first round in this and next year’s class, an outstanding running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a super dependable tight-end in Thaddeus Moss. A good 1000 yards probably came on screens and quick slant routes to Justin Jefferson in the slot. Burrow only played one season close to this level and that hasn’t translated too well recently with other guys. I actually liked Burrow a lot more than most people as a junior because of the toughness and I know that the numbers won’t look great in a heavy run and play-action system, but you have to put his 2019 performance in perspective to some degree.
While Burrow might not have the biggest arm out there, his combination of athleticism, poise, toughness and accuracy make him a shoe-in for the first overall pick. He has those football bloodlines going way back and he always seemed to come through whenever his team really needed him. While you can certainly look at the supporting cast around him as major factors for his success, Burrow also was a big reason all those players around him are looked at the way they are and those coordinators have now received more coveted jobs.
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2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Tua is a great distributor, who has the arm and poise in the pocket to get everybody involved, plus he has the mobility and creativity to create wins off schedule. He has shown the ability to diagnose defenses and stay calm in the pocket to go through his progression – something Jalen Hurts simply wasn’t able to do before. To me he is the most natural passer and has the quickest release in this draft class, displaying soft touch and throwing a very catchable ball, Tua’s eyes and feet are linked together tightly and you see him process information to work through progressions rapidly. Because of that he forces defenses to defend every single inch of grass on the field. Tua is pretty violent with how he pushes off that back-leg and emphatically works up inside the pocket to set up his throws. The ball really jumps out of his hand and he is very sudden with turns of the shoulder, as he works his way through his reads. He is very much like Drew Brees in those type of movements and the command he has over an offense, but he is more athletic than the Saints QB ever was.
This young man is lightning quick at setting his feet and getting the ball out. You see him let the ball go before receivers even get into their breaks a lot of times. RPOs with his quick, compact release were an absolute nightmare facing Alabama, while also displaying the kind of pin-point accuracy that allowed his receivers to not break stride and gain yards after the catch. He showcases great rhythm and timing to work the short and intermediate areas, while also throwing a beautiful deep ball, where he lets the ball drop right into the bucket – especially from the opposite hash. That Alabama offense could score at any moment because of that quick-strike ability and it was both a tool to quickly get back into games and to create separation to the opponent. Tua already carved up opposing defenses when they tried to blitz him during his two years as a starter for the Crimson Tide, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt and completing 65 percent of his passes in those situations. While the injuries are obviously a concern, you also have to applaud Tua’s toughness to stand in there when he has a free runner coming at him as well as playing banged up.
The Bama signal-caller is highly elusive inside the pocket and finds ways to get to ball to his guys even with defenders charging right at him. He has that quick twitch a lot of taller passers don’t, which not only lets him operate efficiently from the pocket, but also enables him to get rid of the ball on bootlegs, where he hasn’t even been able to square his shoulders yet. Tua avoids a lot of sacks and gets rid of the ball to take away those negative plays. When he works the scramble drill, his eyes are up at all times as he is moving sideways and puts the ball to a spot where one of his receivers can run underneath it. Tua is also pretty elusive as a runner and has some start-stop quickness to him. Until banging up his ankle in 2018 he was well on his way to win the Heisman and in 2019 he threw a total of 17 touchdowns through the first four games, despite barely playing in fourth quarters through any of them, before injuries started to somewhat derail his season. Still, he is now leaving Tuscaloosa as the school’s all-time leader in career passing touchdowns, the two highest marks in single-season passing touchdowns and recording passer ratings of 137.5 and 143.3 respectively.
However, Tua had four potential first-round receivers on his offense and he threw a bunch of passes behind the line of scrimmage on different screens or dump-offs off fly motions, where he just those guys make things happen with the ball in their hands, or hit somebody on a quick slant and that guy took it for 70-80 yards to make his stats look much better. He doesn’t nearly seem as comfortable firing the ball in some tight windows downfield and decides to pull it down instead, while his effectiveness takes a huge dip when coming off the first read and holding onto the ball. Tua misses some defenders in underneath coverages every once in a while and he is also kind of erratic movements in the pocket at times, while holding on to the ball too long, which not only gives defenders a chance the knock it out of his hands, but also puts his body at risk at time. With the way his receivers were open a lot of times when he expected them to be because of the way defenses usually reacted, Tua can be caught predetermining throws (pick-six vs. Clemson 2018) and it is kind of ironic that he entered the spotlight coming in as the savior for Bama in the 2017 national title game, considering he came up a little small in their rematch with Georgia in the following SEC Championship game and then Clemson the upcoming CFP. Tua is only 6’1” and looks a little small in the pocket – especially against interior pressure. He has this weird tendency of kind of running up into some throws.
To me it is less about the hip injury, but rather if Tua can stay healthy going forward. He’s not an all-world athlete and puts himself into positions were he is vulnerable, but as great as his SEC rival Joe Burrow was last season, the Alabama signal-caller has put together one of the greatest two-year stretches of any quarterback in college football history. His ability to work through progressions like a computer almost, throw the ball with tremendous accuracy and make the most of plays is special. There are some other concerns here and he had a lot of help around him, but assuming he is actually back to 100 percent and those nagging problems have had time to disappear, I think he is absolutely worth a top ten pick and he is clearly the number two quarterback in this draft.
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3. Justin Herbert, Oregon

This guy is 6’6’’, 230+ pounds and probably has the most talented arm in the entire draft. Herbert doesn’t have to strain when letting the ball 50+ yards, almost like the flick of a wrist. You see him throw those impressive darts all over the field and he can put the type of velocity on the ball to drive it from one hash to the opposite sideline with ease, while also drilling some throws down the seams where no defender can get to the ball in time. He is also light on his feet, being able to move, reset and launch as well as quarterback in college football these last few years. Herbert doesn’t mind holding onto the ball and taking big hits to give receivers enough time to where he can put it the air late and allow them to separate. He didn’t receive much help from the skill-position players around him, as he saw his pass-catchers drop almost 30 passes in 2018 and last season 7.4 of his passes were dropped as well. Herbert ran a very simplistic offense at Oregon this past year, with a bunch of screens and then deep routes off faking those. The Ducks went from a no huddle, spread offense to a system more based around the rushing attack and play-action off it, where he gained experience actually turning his back to the defense and relocating his targets.
Herbert also has some shiftiness to escape the rush, while being a true threat to pull the ball on zone-read plays and burn you. He is a decisive runner when he chooses to take off and can slice through a lane quicker than a lot of defenses can adjust their angles accordingly. Towards the end of the 2019 season, Herbert really started making use of his athleticism and burned opposing defenses with his rushing ability on several occasions. He rushed for three touchdowns in the 2020 Rose Bowl versus Wisconsin, before closing the game out with a couple of big third-down passes. In addition to that, the Oregon signal-caller has the arm talent to make crazy throws on the run and point to spots for his receivers as he moves towards the sideline, letting the ball go over half the field a lot of times. He made a bunch of those plays versus Washington in a huge showdown as a junior. The Oregon QB ran a strong 4.68 at the combine and had a great passing showcase. He was right on target on deep in-breaking routes, threw three beautiful corner routes in a row and showed off his big arm on the go-ball.
Moreover, Herbert put together a very consistent Senior Bowl week. He clearly stood out among the quarterbacks and if not for Jordan Love putting together some good stretches himself, Herbert would have been heads and shoulders above the rest there. He wrapped things up by absolutely firing some piss missiles during the two-minutes drill on the final day and then was named the Offensive MVP in the actual game. When protected and in rhythm, we have seen what Herbert can do. In 2018 he completed 17 of his first 18 passes versus Stanford and I thought he learned to be more of a well-rounded passer than just a thrower last season. With that I mean not always putting a hundred miles per hour on the ball and driving it, but also using some touch and taking heat off it, when he checked it down late to one of his running backs. I also thought he become more efficient with his pocket movement, especially gaining ground as he hitches up.
On the flipside, Herbert has to do a better job anticipating throws and not waiting for receivers to actually come open, mostly locking in on his first read. At this point he is most comfortable rolling to either side and throwing the ball, rather than working through his progressions and adjusting to defenses post-snap. He lacks someone awareness of who’s coming on blitzes and doesn’t always put his second hand on the football to protect it, which resulted in 26 total fumbles in 43 career starts. As a pure thrower, his feet get stuck at times and he doesn’t have them pointed properly for the throws he goes on to attempt, while also not bringing his whole body into the throw and swinging his back-leg through routinely. That led to plenty of passes landing at the feet of his receiver or going over their head. His front-shoulder gets frozen too many times and he limits the torque he can build up, muscling some throws due to an elongated motion. Herbert is kind of stiff overall and his throwing motion is pretty mechanic. Because of that, he is not super accurate on short throws, as he finished 50th in the FBS in the 1-9 yard range in accuracy percentage according to PFF. Most problematic however, Herbert was only present physically in a lot of big games for the Ducks and did not show that spark necessary to take those contests over, while making some bad decisions and looking like a deer in the headlights.
Herbert’s lack of consistency with reading the field and being precise with his throws is definitely concerning, but his flashes of brilliance when it comes his athleticism and big-time throws is even more intriguing. 728 of his passing yards came on screen passes and he doesn’t work through his progressions particularly well yet, but with the way he ended the season and performed in Mobile, Herbert has likely secured a spot in the top ten of the draft. However, I have some major question marks about his game and his readiness to be a week one starter for whoever drafts him. So I would actually not look at him before the end of the first round.
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4. Jordan Love, Utah State

I already believed before the 2019 college football season even started, that Love could be that surprise first-round quarterback this year. He is 6’4”, 225 pounds with an incredibly dynamic arm and overall skill-set. He uses his different arm angles and trajectories, really showing that flexibility and bendiness to change things up with how the ball comes out of his hands. He can not just drive the ball, but also put arc on it or use different speeds. Love shows some suddenness with the way he can snap his feet and turn his shoulder to go with a quick release. You see him give those little look-offs to open up quick throws underneath routinely. He has the velocity on the ball to complete out-routes without allowing trailing defenders to undercut the pass and he has the confidence in his ability to fire the ball into some tight windows over the middle. Even when his receivers were well-covered, Love put the ball into some spots where they had a chance to make a play routinely and when those guys did find a way to hold onto the pass, it ended in spectacular plays. Love can throw off his back-foot with a defender in his face and is not afraid of attacking the deep middle. When he was surrounded with bigger receivers, he put the ball up in the air for them and allowed them to make a play quite often.
Love has a way of escaping from defenders, by spinning off or making them miss, leading to just 23 sacks taken despite being pressured on 27.7 percent of his drop-backs last season. He has a special ability to make throws on the run, can fire the ball 50+ yards off the wrong foot like it’s nothing and you see him fire bullets off a dead-sprint to the left, where he somehow still finds a way to square his shoulders and give his receivers downfield a shot. However, even on bootlegs when he somebody wide open in flats off a sift block fake or on a shall crosser, he goes for the deep comeback instead and hits it in on the run routinely. Love scored seven rushing touchdowns in 2018, despite just recording 63 rushing yards. He is much more dynamic runner than his numbers would indicate, being able to give that little head-fake and the dip defenders for yardage right up the middle. Love also shows pretty good speed to the edge and toughness in traffic.
In 2019 his top three receivers were no longer there and Love didn’t have that explosive check-down option Darwin Thompson presented his sophomore campaign. The offense also wasn’t very creative and under the new coaching staff, they didn’t give Love much help, with plays repeating themselves a whole lot. Much of his bad play was about pressing and trying to do much, when there simply wasn’t much there. Of his 17 interceptions last season, two were tipped by defensive linemen, three came on hail mary attempts and on another three it seemed pretty obvious that receivers were running the wrong route. He impressed at the Senior Bowl with the way his ball cut through the wind while other QBs struggled with that. He also showed some good mobility inside the pocket and the ability to keep his eyes down the field and after a somewhat shaky first day, he put together two more excellent practices, really showing poise and control. Love also had an excellent athletic showing at the combine for a pretty big guy.
While you have to put it into perspective, you can’t overlook the fact Love took a big step back in 2019, going from six to 17 interceptions while completing two percent less of his passes for an average of 1.4 yards less per attempt. He tends to throw some short passes with his arm only, not bringing his lower body forward at all. He also needs to stop trying to lob balls into his guys instead of actually throwing it, at times putting his feet parallel to each other and just leaving the ball up for grabs on those rainbow type throws, with too much under it. While several of his interceptions actually weren’t his fault, there could have been plenty of others going the wrong way, as Love ranked 101st nationally with 26 turnover-worthy plays last season according to PFF. He tries to get the ball to receivers that look open at the moment he releases it, without noticing the pecillinary coverage. His completion percentage last season was highly inflated by the amount of screens he threw – 26.5 percent of his completions were behind the line of scrimmage – and he really struggled in Utah State’s two matchup versus Power 5 teams – LSU and Wake Forest (six INTs combined).
Love has those quick-twitch movement to adjust his platform and get the ball to where it needs to be in a hurry. While it is obviously crazy to make that comparison to Patrick Mahomes, since that guy is probably the most talented quarterback I have ever seen, Love has a lot of similar qualities, in terms of being a flexible athlete, who can change up his throwing angles and releases, as well as being a magician off script. However, at Utah State he also made some absolutely bone-headed decisions and was really pressing last season. His upside is very intriguing, but you need to surround him with the appropriate weapons and a creative offensive coordinators if you don’t want his backyard style of play to be the norm.
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5. Jacob Eason, Washington

This young man has the size and arm the NFL is looking for, with the prototype measurements of 6’6”, right around 230 pounds, which most scouts were hell-bent to find just a few years ago. More importantly the arm strength is second to none in this class. Eason can put the ball in the air 50-60 yards without even breaking a sweet and he can fire lasers pretty much to any spot necessary. The ball comes out beautifully and the Washington QB spreads the it all around the field. He has no problem completing corner-routes to the close to the white lines on the field side without much arc to keep the safety from undercutting it in time. He loves to throw all those curl and hook routes, where he can put some zing on the ball. Eason can throw those deep post routes on a rope and make it look easy, but also places some fade balls perfectly on those lob passes and can put it over the top of the underneath defender for a crossing receiver to drift further downfield, showcasing the ability to take speed off the ball. He made a couple of throws in the Las Vegas Bowl against #19 Boise State that will absolutely make your jaw drop.
Eason has experience in a pro-style offense, where he was asked to turn his back to the defense off play-action and make big-throws down the field. He has the confidence to pull the trigger for some tight-window throws or let the ball go to a spot in-between defenders on dig or shallow post routes. When he is in rhythm and on his game, there is a lot to like here. Eason excels in the quick-game from the gun, where he has his drive-foot in front and as soon as it hits, he transitions back forward with some power behind the ball. He is also very accurate getting the ball out on hitch and hook routes and deeper drops, where he can really hit that back-foot and let it fly. At the same time, he has the arm talent to roll either way or run up into the throw for some incredible completions. He especially likes to escape through the back door, spinning to his left and then leading his receiver all the way towards the sideline. Eason didn’t get a ton of help from his wide receivers last season with a drop rate of 7.6 percent and he was pressured on 26.6 percent of his drop-backs.
Unfortunately, Eason locks his feet into the ground a little too much and doesn’t rotate through in a very dynamic fashion for the most part. You see him throw some balls on a line, which don’t give his receiver a adjust and make a play on it and while you like the confidence, there are some throws where one of the safeties can either make a play on the ball himself or just blast the intended receiver. Eason is a below-average athlete and will not contribute whatsoever as a runner, as he finished his career with -126 rushing yards overall. While some NFL GMs are probably different, there are some situations, where I would have liked to see the QB go head-first instead of sliding in order to convert on third downs. Eason completely panics under pressure and makes some terrible decisions in the process, where he fades away or throws it without any usage of the lower body. He crumbled and gave away some big games with bad judgement against Oregon and Utah, including a game-changing pick-six against the Utes throwing from his back-foot.
I really thought Eason should have returned to Washington for the 2020 season, because there are definitely some parts of his game that need help and I wanted to see him come through in the big games, instead of shrinking in those moment. However, I believe he is more daring than reckless, even if that doesn’t mean there aren’t any issues in his judgement for situations and he needs to improve a whole when facing pressure. Still, the size and arm talent, combined with the fact he really only played two seasons make him a very intriguing option to shape into something special with an established starter allowing him to grow for a year.
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6. Jalen Hurts, Alabama

Built robust at 6’2”, 220 pounds, Hurts has come a long, long way as a passer from when he first took over the Alabama offense as a freshman. His ability to throw the ball from within the pocket with accuracy and rhythm looked much better in spot-duty as the backup behind Tua in 2018 and he became a completely different guy under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, where he established himself as one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy only a few weeks into the year. I also believe his throwing motion has become much more fluid throughout this offseason, leading up to an excellent passing session at the combine. However, there was never any question about the power behind his arm, which was apparent ever since he threw that 70-yard touchdown on a deep ball when Bama dismantled USC in the 2016 season-opener – his first ever collegiate game. You see those tight spirals on downfield throws, where the nose of the ball is aimed towards the ground. Last season over 1200 yards of his total came on balls travelling 20+ yards down the field. He has the ability to be pretty accurate off-platform as well.
As prolific as he was as a passer for most of the year, Hurts really took over as a runner in the latter parts of that campaign, carrying the ball 106 times over a five-game stretch leading up to the CFP. Not only has he been very effective in the option run game, but he has made some huge plays taking off when a crease opened up. He displays some slick pump fakes when he has an option in the flats off zone-reads and gets some guys to not even lay a hand on him at times Hurts has great shake and head-fakes as a runner, but while some people may think of him as this Lamar Jackson-style runner, he actually has more of a running back mentality with the weightlifting background to back it up with power. He ran over several defensive backs throughout his career and has gained plenty of yardage through contact, displaying a lot of toughness. At the same time he has the speed to slice through defense. That strength also shows when he breaks free from potential sacks and puts the ball out in front for one of his receivers to run underneath off the scramble drill or lead them back towards himself. More importantly however, Hurts has that gamer mentality you want to see from a quarterback. Yes, he was benched in the 2017 national title game because the passing attack for the Tide was pretty stagnant, but when you think of the way he redeemed himself when he jumped into the action versus Georgia the following season or that 28-3 comeback over Baylor the first time around last year, he has stepped up and willed his team to victories
While gets the ball towards the target most of the time, Hurts has not mastered the ability to use the appropriate type of passes – straight-line, lob, touch, etc. The Oklahoma QB tends to not get the front-shoulder pointed towards his target and limits the torque he can build up on his throws, especially when getting the ball out quickly. While he has made huge strides as a pocket-passer, he is still too quick to take off and leaves opportunities on the table. He has definitely improved from his days of being completely flat-footed as he looked downfield, but he still has kind of lazy feet and runs himself into some pressures. He also makes some dumb decision, when he is all the way out at the sideline and tries to throw back across the field and he fumbled eight times last year, dropping the ball below his belt on too many occasions. Overall, his production at Oklahoma was largely due to Lincoln Riley’s quarterback-friendly system, that had produced consecutive Heisman trophy winners the two previous years. There were a bunch of wide-open receivers off mesh concepts and rub routes, plus having an all-world receiver like Ceedee Lamb making you look good with his ability to make magic after the catch helps your numbers a whole lot as well. The second-lowest drop rate in the FBS (1.8 percent) doesn’t hurt either. He needs to see receivers be open for the most part, instead of anticipating throws and a lot of his issues came in a catastrophic Peach Bowl versus LSU, which Big 12 defenses couldn’t expose.
There are a lot of things to like about hurts – his competitiveness, arm strength and mobility standing out the most. However, to me he is more of a developmental prospect with work to be done in terms of getting his body in position to make the most of his throws. I want more subtle movement inside the pocket and him being more effective with his decision-making. I love what I have seen from Hurts in terms of overhauling his throwing motion and the development he has made overall ever since he lost his job to Tua at Alabama, but he is still growing as a passer. To me he is Tyrod Taylor plus – which he can certainly be a top-20 starter in the right system.
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7. Jake Fromm, Georgia

The first thing that stands out to me about Fromm’s tape is the fact he has very clean footwork overall – in the quick game, five- and seven-step drops as well as re-setting off play-action. He is at his best in rhythm, letting the ball go right as that last step hits and completing curl or hook routes, but he also wins on those teardrop and back-shoulder throws along the sidelines. At Georgia, he was outstanding at lofting the ball over the top on fade routes and putting it to where only his receiver can put hands on it. Fromm excels at throwing his receivers open on back-shoulder throws, as corners try to stack those guys and don’t allow them to separate originally. In the underneath areas he actually protects his targets from defenders by placing the ball away from those guy. While it is just a small detail, the Georgia QB puts the ball to the outside shoulder on flat routes and outlets every single time, to where his guy can immediately turn upfield. He really understands how to distribute the ball to his arsenal of pass-catchers and spreads the ball around between them, while manipulating defenses with very subtle shoulder- and ball-fakes.
Throughout his three years as a starter with the Bulldogs, Fromm did a great job protecting the ball as part of a team that relied on a heavy running game and stingy defense. Their QB had only 28 turnover-worthy plays in his entire career and had only four fumbles recovered by the opposing team. While he wasn’t asked to fling the ball all over the yard, Fromm has plenty of experience from under center and running pro-style concepts, which can’t be said about many college signal-callers with all those spread offenses. When he was relied upon in certain situations, he did come through for UGA ever since his freshman campaign, stepping up in SEC Championship games. Fromm stands strong in that pocket and keeps his eyes downfield, but he also defeated the blitz a whole lot by releasing the ball extra early to a spot or putting a ton of air under the ball and giving his receivers an opportunity to make a play on it. I also think he is more dangerous when he takes off than you would expect and he is a tough runner when he needs to pick up a first down.
However, Fromm is routinely a tick late with releasing the ball, which does not help considering his arm-talent is average at best. You don’t see too many big opposite-sideline throws or drive passes in the intermediate to deep range. When he wants to really push the ball downfield, he needs this wind-up to enable himself to do that. Fromm struggles to hook up with his flankers on short out-routes consistently, giving defenders a chance to undercut the pass. That’s a big reason four of his five interceptions last season came in short range (0-9 yards) and 25.4 percent of his passes last season were uncatchable. Fromm is way too quick to check it down and he didn’t even allow some patterns to develop before finding Swift & company underneath. Last year he only averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Fromm has to do a better job feeling pressure off the edge and moving up into the pocket, having his weight shifted backwards too much for my taste. He also has a bad habit of flipping the ball and is kind of a statue in the pocket. His arm also looked pretty weak there and he could not make some of impressive throws other guys in Indy intrigued scouts with. Fromm only dropped back 35+ times in seven career games – most quarterbacks from pass-heavy systems have more than that in a single season.
Fromm is a solid, but not very exciting quarterback prospect. If put in the right system, I think he can be a productive starter right off the bat, but if you ask him to make big-time throws all over the field and be the focus of the offense, you will be disappointed. At below nine-inch hands and lacking arm talent, the upside simply isn’t there quite like it is for some other guys, but he has been an excellent starter in college football’s toughest conference and not shied away from competing against the best, actually stepping up his game. At worst he should be one of the best backups in the league, who keeps a cool head and shows a lot of toughness when thrown in a game.
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8. Anthony Gordon, Washington State

This 6’2”, 205-pound signal-caller took more drop-backs (740) than any other quarterback in the country last season. Gordon displays bouncy feet inside the pocket and is rapid with setting them to release the ball, while being able to shorten his motion when the ball needs to come out. He is very patient at working through his progressions and allowing patterns to develop. Gordon was at his best over the middle on the intermediate level, layering the ball between linebackers and safeties on dig or shallow post routes, to where his receiver doesn’t have to break stride at all, setting up a lot of yards after the catch. He also throws some beautiful tear-drop fade routes towards the opposite sideline. Gordon can utilize some side-arm action on hook or stick routes, as well as putting the ball to the outside of receivers as he moves that way. Overall he completed 220 of his 264 attempts on passes in the zero to nine yard range. Unlike a lot of these guys coming from Air Raid systems, Gordon actually has the tools to succeed outside that kind of scheme and he probably has the most talented arm for a Wazzu QB in recent years.
Gordon also has somewhat underrated mobility and can pick up some crucial third downs, when the defense drops out and leaves a lane for him, but also to run up in the pocket and feather the ball over defenders. More importantly, he can buy time inside the pocket by sliding around and drifting backwards a little to set up some throws. He sees the entire field very well and won’t let opportunities for big plays slip away too much, with 115 completions on passes thrown for 10+ yards, to go with the precision in the underneath areas. I really like the way he can look off defenders and almost start his release before his eyes even move on to the actual target, especially in combination with guys sitting down their routes and creating more room for them that way. He was highly efficient all over the field, but in particular in the red-zone.
With that being said, Gordon needs to swing that back-leg through more instead of having it hit the turf and kind of whipping the ball. His feet aren’t quite in sync with his upper body at this point. He also has a bad tendency of padding the ball and taking that second hand off it, swinging it around quite a bit. It is maddening to watch the ball drop underneath his belt and then over his head time and time again. Gordon doesn’t drive some balls down the seam enough and allows defender to get back into the picture or exposes his receivers awaiting the pass. You see some ill-advised decisions when he is on the move and just kind of puts the ball up for grabs sometimes. His numbers were blown up in that Air Raid under Mike Leach, where a lot of throws were basically extended handoffs. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 738 yards on screen passes last season and his top two backs caught over 100 balls on swing and angle routes for the most part. At the Senior Bowl, Gordon struggled to cut through the wind for the most part and I would say he’s only slightly above that starter threshold in terms of arm strength.
While he is shockingly loose with the ball, Gordon “only” fumbled five times last year, which isn’t too bad a rate considering the insane amount of drop-backs. That number will be a lot higher in the NFL if he doesn’t change his ball-handling habits. A lot of his production at Wazzu was manufactured through the scheme and he only was a starter for one year, but there a lot of things to work with in terms of field awareness, pocket movement and ability to set up his receivers for run after catch opportunities. Gordon may not have a special arm, but he is a very natural passer and deserves a chance to compete for a starting job early on. While he isn’t nearly as big or has the kind of arm talent as Tom Brady does, he plays a little like the GOAT.
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Numbers nine and ten as well as notable mentions in the comments!
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If you enjoyed the content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/04/14/top-10-quarterbacks-in-the-2020-nfl-draft/
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You can also listen to the video breakdown - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKEGX50IXQA

It's Wednesday, so time to get those survivor picks in before the game tomorrow. If you're curious about the methodology for how I come up with my picks, it's at the bottom.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team
Fine. Kansas City Chiefs.
There are really only two options this week. Chiefs or Patriots. PHI and LAC have already been picked, and the next highest spread is only 5 points for Houston. Next week is currently looking like the same situation, so it will likely be KC and NE for the next two weeks. Picking KC this week (.734 to win both) is slightly favored over NE this week (.726 to win both), hence the KC pick for this week
Season so far
4-0. Despite the nay-sayers, LAC covered the 16.5 point spread and beat Miami by 20. The LAR truthers were met with a hard dose of reality as TB showed up to play and dropped 55 points on what was one of the best defenses in the league. If you picked the Chargers with me, then you likely survived a large culling of your league, and continue to march on.
Season Long Outlook
Teams in italics are changes from last week. This is simply to give some insight into why team X or Y aren't being picked this week. It's usually because they are better off being used later in the season, or it's because I've already used them.
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Week	Team	P(Win)
1	PHI	100%
2	BAL	100%
3	DAL	100%
4	LAC	100%
5	KC	84%
6	NE	87%
7	BUF	86%
8	NO	87%
9	NYJ	67%
10	IND	85%
11	SF	83%
12	CLE	87%
13	CAR	80%
14	GB	82%
15	NYG	78%
16	SEA	85%
17	LAR	87%

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The Bears were the original pick for this week against the lowly Raiders, but after the Raiders beat a quality Colts team, the algorithm doesn't like Chicago's chances anymore and have dropped them out of all choices.
I'm sure many of you have noticed the week 9 pick.... I know.... I'm not crazy about it either. I looked through all the other possibilities and this really is the best option. This is what happens as we learn more and more about each team. After Houston lost and their week 9 opponent Jacksonville won, they are no longer seen as a very good pick for week 9. Hopefully something changes between now and then to make me feel more comfortable, but until then, that's the reality we're looking at. Every season has a week or two where the options are very slim, looks like week 9 will be that way for us this year.
On the plus side, outside of week 9 and 15, all other games have a win probability greater than or equal to 80%.
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Survival) = 8.4% (+1.8%)
E(Wins) = 14.77 (+0.19)
Methedology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
After getting a lot of "What if I picked teams A and B already?" or "What if there are only 20 people left in my league?" or "What if I can only pick teams that play on Sunday?"
I got you covered. I cleaned up the sheet and added a couple of features that should work for everyone.
You can download it from Mediafire, or just look at a picture of it if you like.
Enter what days of the week you're allowed to pick games on, enter the total remaining entries in your league, and the teams you've already picked and just click the "Calculate" button.
If you don't like waiting for my post, you can also update the data from 538 and enter the point spreads yourself, but I'll continue to update and post it here every Wednesday as well.
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Sorry for the delayed post this week. Automod and I were having a disagreement.