Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it.
Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic.
Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars...
Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there.
Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment.
Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack.

Pre-Market

Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try.
Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices.
Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby!
Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)!
The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open.
CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there).
If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow.

You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear!

Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant.
Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday.
Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around
Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old).
Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest.
Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first...
A side lesson on market orders
Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are).
During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone.
What happened?
During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out.
So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin').
edit *so while I was too busy trying not to spit out my coffee to grab a screenshot, piddlesthethug was faster on the draw and captured this: https://imgur.com/gallery/RI1WOuu
Ok, so I guess my in-the-moment mental math was off by about 10%. Man, that hurts just thinking about the guy who lost on that trade.*
Back to the market action..

A Ray of Light Through the Darkness

So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons.
On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis).
On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag.
But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself.
edit So, there's feedback in the comments that this is likely more of a technical glitch. Man, at least it was hilarious in the moment. But also now I know maybe not to trust price updates when the spread between orders being posted is so wide. Maybe a technical limitation of TOS
I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly.
So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out.
I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move??
The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED.
Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access.
The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people.
Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast.

The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)?

Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine.
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Date	Volume	Price at US Market Close
Friday, 1/22/21	197,157,196	$65.01
Monday, 1/25/21	177,874,00	$76.79
Tuesday, 1/26/21	178,587,974	$147.98
Wednesday, 1/27/21	93,396,666	$347.51
Thursday, 1/28/21	58,815,805	$193.60

What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest.
What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital?
Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished.
But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price?
No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s).
It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday.
In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore.
Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen.
They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close.
Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns.
On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??!
You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses.

Ok, So.. Questions

There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly?? (side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?)
We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this.
But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness!
...Madness?
THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*.
Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus.
I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market?
Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down).
If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about?
Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way.
What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares.
How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday).
But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover?
The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right.
On the other hand..
What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here).
Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever.
Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then?
Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point.
Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid?
Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway.
And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down?
Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post.

The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington

The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic.
People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality.
Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic.
Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world?
Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL.
Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing.
Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs.
Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big.
...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry.
Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"!
We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right?
Maybe.
First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say.
Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain.
But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy.
Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again.
Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem.
It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street.
If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either.
How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!!
Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind.

A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem...

What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked.
Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening:
First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind.
Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes.
If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no.
You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat.
But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius!
Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget.
Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10...
...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan...
So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION...
End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000^\)!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet.
^\)side note: add 8 zeros to the end...
Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because...
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..
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BOOM
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Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit.
Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done.
Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point.
Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market!
Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day.
Edit getting a bunch of questions on if it's possible the hedge funds are finding ways to cover in spite of my assumptions. Of course. I'm a retail guy trying to read the charts and price action. I don't have any special tools like the pros may have.

Yes, as you read, cross post from boringpeople, but it's well worth a read, as long as it is. All credit to u/jn_ku, and go read the other parts. Godspeed autists
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it.
Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic.
Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars...
Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there.
Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment.
Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack.
Pre-Market
Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try.
Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices.
Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby!
Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)!
The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open.
CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there).
If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow.
You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear!
Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant.
Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday.
Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around
Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old).
Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest.
Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first...
A side lesson on market orders
Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are).
During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone.
What happened?
During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out.
So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin').
Back to the market action..
A Ray of Light Through the Darkness
So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons.
On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis).
On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag.
But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself.
I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly.
So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out.
I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move??
The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED.
Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access.
The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people.
Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast.
The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)?
Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine.
DateVolumePrice at US Market CloseFriday, 1/22/21197,157,196$65.01Monday, 1/25/21177,874,00$76.79Tuesday, 1/26/21178,587,974$147.98Wednesday, 1/27/2193,396,666$347.51Thursday, 1/28/2158,815,805$193.60
What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest.
What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital?
Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished.
But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price?
No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s).
It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday.
In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore.
Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen.
They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close.
Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns.
On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??!
You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses.
Ok, So.. Questions
There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly?? (side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?)
We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this.
But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness!
...Madness?
THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*.
Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus.
I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market?
Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down).
If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about?
Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way.
What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares.
How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday).
But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover?
The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right.
On the other hand..
What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here).
Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever.
Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then?
Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point.
Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid?
Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway.
And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down?
Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post.
The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington
The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic.
People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality.
Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic.
Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world?
Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL.
Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing.
Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs.
Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big.
...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry.
Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"!
We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right?
Maybe.
First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say.
Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain.
But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy.
Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again.
Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem.
It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street.
If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either.
How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!!
Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind.
A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem...
What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked.
Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening:
First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind.
Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes.
If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no.
You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat.
But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius!
Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget.
Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10...
...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan...
So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION...
End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000*!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet.
*side note: add 8 zeros to the end...
Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because...
..
BOOM
Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit.
Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done.
Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point.
Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market!
Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day.

Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening GrubhubGamers!
What is this thread? The main purpose of this thread is to provide a place for all social media posts/comments related to TSM’s games of the week from pro players/analysts/influencers/orgs. The thread is updated manually after every game in this order: Interview (if TSM wins) > TSM Tweets > Opponent Tweets > Others
I also take notes on LCS Co-streamer’s analysis (sometimes 2+) but because it is not the major focus of this thread, the quality varies from day to day and I would highly recommend just watching their vod which I’ll provide here if it is available.
Today’s Live Analyst: Doublelift
Analyst Vod: LINK
Today's Match Up:

TSM	CLG
Huni	Licorice
Spica	Josedeodo
PowerOfEvil	Palafox
Lost	Johnsun
SwordArt	Diamond

PREGAME

Doublelift

• fastest shaco hover any% @Spicalol
  
  • Spica: shaco hover till I win
  • Treatz: Kayn hover to lift the curse

Doublelift (Stream)

• Pisses him off that people flame Spica when every lane is losing. Also PoE's champ pool doesn't support the fact that Spica likes to be aggressive early.
  
• Mothra vs Godzilla in the top lane! (Huni vs Finn)
  

Logitech G Esports

• In this image we get just a glimpse of @Spicalol explaining his secrets to winning League of Legends games. It's time to tune into Sunday #LCS as we have @TSM facing off against old time rivals CLG.

DURING DRAFT

Doublelift

• Doesn't understand why Bjerg gives CLG first pick Udyr when it's so broken right now.
  
• If Spica hovers Shaco, TSM wins.
  
  • TSM wins.
• Not sure why they need to pick Olaf/Azir in response to Udyr. Is Azir highly contested? Is it some strong important takeaway from CLG? No. Olaf makes sense into UdyCamille though.
  
• TSM need to ban MF 2nd round or they might get shit on. Ori is also an acceptable ban though since it supports Camille/Udyr so well.
  
• Xayah/Leona is a strong 2v2. Likes the draft. Mobility/Stats/Dmg on TSM but not much cc. CLG's comp requires good positioning and is looking to pick people off/long range wombo.
  
• Wants to see more cohesiveness. Getting things off Swordart's roams. Also TSM's lanes have been so weak so far. They really need to fix their laning.
  

Tim Sevenhuysen

• TSM averaged -1,548 GD15 in their first two games, for an EGR of 28.2 (28.2% win probability at 15:00).
  
• IMT have played 3 games with a 21.0 EGR, so TSM aren't the worst early-game team in the league, and they'll need to be very bad today to that point.
  

DURING GAME

Lolesports Stats: RUNES
Doublelift

• Top lane will be a big point of contention. People have been really afraid of Huni's Lulu. Really wants to see why.
  
• Likes the early ward from Huni but it seems likely that Udyr will get there after the ward expires.
  
• Udyr's pathing (2:40) is really weird. He invades blue, wards it and then backs. Is now behind 2 camps.
  
  • Figures that since Huni came to lane early, Udyr must have thought that he was getting split mapped.
• Udyr going the long way around to gank top was really smart (~5:20)
  
• Wildturtle is playing like a pussy in the 1v1 versus Lost. He wins that 1v1 everytime with the current rune setup but he backs away. (8:30)
  
• Swordart played this entire segment really badly. All he had to do was ward the lantern.(10:40)
  
• TSM at least have a good win condition since they're on track to get soul.
  
• Herald take from CLG at (~16:20) is smart/important because it's really hard to take mid turret versus Azir. Even if 5 show mid, Azir could probably just protect turret with his soldiers.
  
• Thinks CLG deciding to go for 3k+ gold instead of going for drags is bad. Would much rather have the 3 drags(~18)
  
• Lost almost smurfed the 5th drag fight. What happened to Swordart was really unlikely. He tried to E to keep Udyr in pit but Udyr drags him over the pit with his flash.
  
• Big throw by CLG giving up baron. Xayah does a lot of damage now. Says Xayah late game is actually better than Aphelios. Really hard to kill too.
  
• Hates that Swordart tries to combo Udyr when he has like 50+ tenacity. (~31:50)
  
• TSM should not care about top lane during 6th drag. TSM should have the mindset here that it would even be worth giving up 3 inhibs for this ocean soul.
  
• Not sure why CLG are trying to win via split. They should really be trying to 5v5, split isn't going to work at this point.
  
• TSM's comp late game is disgusting late game. Can't really lose with Azir Lulu Xayah.
  
• Doublelift thinks they could've ended on several different pushes but TSM is scared to attempt to end with eldeocean soul.
  
• Finn refuses to group with the team for some reason. Finn's decision making is really disgusting like a bot.
  
  • In his mind he believes they will never win a 5v5, but he will also never win by split pushing. Should always go for the 5v5 rather than just randomly splitting.

Tim Sevenhuysen

• Not including today's game, @Lost_adc has played ~36 games in the #LCS, including regionals, Lock In, etc., dating back to Summer 2018. (Not counting any Academy.) Before that, he played ~83 games in the OPL. He still has a lot of unexplored potential, though! I believe in him.(~11)
  
• In a team comp with Leona, Azir, and Olaf, the best engager for TSM has been Lost. On Xayah. #LCS (~9m before end)
  

Raz

• Camille flashed and almost die to the lulu botside on minimap during herald set-up (~17)
  
  • TimSevenhuysen: That sounds like a positive Huni play, which is not allowed and therefore is unlikely to have occurred.

*Rjs has had really good reaction timing this game. That flash away from Leona E flash is really hard to react to.(~21)

• 1 baron side inhib for ocean soul is not worth. (~34)

Pastrytime

• For having some pretty meh splits in recent memory @Smoothie been looking kinda nice lately. Hopefully a continued return to form for once lauded support. (~15)
  
• I spy a Bandleglass mirror, but not on the Lulu 🤔
  

SNG Nelson

• Why do you force 2v2s against Zoe Udyr? Do you have more than 5 summoner spells or cleanse or have more stats? (~15)

Markz

• ????

GG Danan

• this already feels like one of those games where neither team wins (~33)

Travis Gafford

• holy crap this game is hilarious. Just feels like there's so much ego on the line, especially with how much reggie has talked down on CLG previously
  
  • but it was nice of CLG to burn baron down half way for them

Treatz

• This #LCS game is quite... Interesting to say the least 😤(~32)

Shakarez

• Best CLG vs TSM match I've watched (~32)
  
• CLG is the funniest fucking team I swear
  

Froskurinn

• This game is a cluster fuck. #LCS
  
  • SNG Nelson: CLG just can't win.
• Both Swordart and Finn ran away from home to join the circus.
  
• "I went to world's for this."
  
• Fuck it. I'm a CLG fan - this is hilarious. RUN MUPPETS RUN
  

IWD

• Its an absolute horror show

Locodoco

• Is Finn on a restricted VISA? Is he not allowed to go botside of the map and split?

Santorin

• Hey what's going on????(~41)

Emily Rand

• This one is going to be a good gold graph image...

Rogue Flyy

• Why did rjs tp there!?!?! (~5min before end)

Allorim

• It must be a rough weekend for CLG fans

CoreJJ

• 2020 League is stronger than 2021 League. (~3min before end of game)

Dunc

• I want out of this game please

POST GAME

INTERVIEW w/ PowerOfEvil

• Not satisfied. Game was really chaotic and the team currently isn't on the same page. Too many voices. Really need to figure out how to unite. Feels good to end the week with a win.
  
• Down gold, lost dragon fight. Game was really hard. Zoe got caught and they knew it was their chance to turn it around at Baron. They were stronger in split push so it was just a game about defending the base against Camille. Had to do a lot of communication as the defender.
  
• A lot of fans are saying we're really bad and he understands. He was in a similar situation on FLY where people were telling him that FLY isn't a playoff team but he made finals back to back. Thinks his teammates are strong individually and they'll work on improving.
  

TSM

Huni

• nothing yet

Spica

• nothing yet

PowerOfEvil

• nothing yet

Lost

• nothing yet

SwordArt

• nothing yet

Coach Bjergsen

• nothing yet

Kayys

• Am disappointed with our play so far, biggest issue coming with our alignment on how we view the game on official matches. We will do everything we can to turn it around and contest for the Championship

Curry

• nothing yet

Reginald

• 😒

TSM Report

• A WIN IS A WIN IS A WIN! Our #LCS squad fights tooth and nail to claim their first #TSMWIN of the split! The boys will return next week after recovering from a tough first week.

Dunc

• Rough weekend. But really liked seeing Lost's team fighting/positioning in this game. Played well.

Max Olivo

• Pet the TSM

CLG

Finn

• nothing yet

Griffin

• nothing yet

Rjs

• nothing yet

WildTurtle

• nothing yet

Smoothie

• nothing yet

CLG (Twitter)

• If nothing else, our games are super entertaining. GG @TSM . We showed a lot of promise over the weekend. Enjoy your Super Bowl everyone. #CLGFIGHTING

OTHERS

LS

• Now that the Royal Fumble: Senior Center has finally ended, I'll give my thoughts in just a moment on what this Clash of Trash prequel trailer might mean for Kong vs Zilla later this year.
  
• TSM are quite literally a bottom tier team atm&there's no easy fixing it, especially not with 5 weeks left. Their laning phases, overall individual gameplay ideas (player by player) & drafting are all insanely bad. This is several times now they got away w/ stealing the mona lisa
  
• They've consistently been in losing positions and game states for a long time (it reminds me of summer where they also committed robberies, mostly on the back of bjergsen to win games). The reason I'm doubtful they can improve is because how can they realistically?
  
• Intent is absent in their gameplay - Intent is where you would see coaching or other things take affect, and yet it's no where to be found. They look similar to earlier versions of TSM, just with a now worse roster and w/o Bjergsen to save them.
  
• I'm not optimistic anything can change, because my perception is that Bjergsen was always the coach anyway, and it's unfair to blame him, because he's put in an impossible position imo. He never had anyone help him, so how can he be expected to know what to do to fix such issues?
  
• He was NAs by far&away best player so long, &carried so many iterations of the team on his back through sheer power of his gameplay and finding wins where they didn't belong. Now he's absent, but the foundational problems that plague the team regrow like nature overgrowing a city
  

Tim Sevenhuysen

• TSM now have the 3rd-worst early game in the #LCS based on week 1 games, with a 30.9 EGR, and if DIG have a rough start they could drop below TSM too.
  
• https://oracleselixir.com/stats/teams/byTournament/LCS%2F2021%20Season%2FSpring%20Season
  

Treatz

• Lol easy win for TSM!!🙏🙏

Travis Gafford

• CLG were just better at losing today.

Froskurinn

• The Superbowl should just run that game as the halftime show - won't find better entertainment anywhere.

Fionn

• TSM vs CLG was, uh, a game of League of Legends

Cloud9 (Twitter)

• CLG 😭

Lolesports Stats

• 344 days (49 Weeks, 1 day, 8,256 hours, 495,360 minutes, 29,721,600...01...02...03...seconds)
  
• This game was @Lost_adc until it was won! @TSM crawled back from the jaws of split push defeat to take the win over @clgaming #LCS Lost's Stats
  

Empyre

• PoE and Huni on the same team must drive the TSM analysts crazy with their builds 😅😅😅

Froskurinn

• "Grandma, what's the superbowl?" "Well lil Timmy, four times a year we're treated to the oldest rivalry in sport: TSM vs CLG."

This is going to be a really long post, so read it at your pace. I'll try my best to make it worthwhile but I ain't much of a good writer.
​
Genshin Impact has been released since 28th of September and so far the game has received a lot of mixed reactions from the players and most of them not being good ones. Let's dig into them. So this is a criticism/feedback/bitching/complaining post or whatever you like to call it.
​
First of all What is Genshin Impact?
This is something even the game itself doesn't know and is what's confused most of the people around and is what created the first problem. Genshin has severe identity crisis. It's a JRPG? It's a Mobile gacha game? It's a AAA title aimed for all?
The game tried to find something in between all this and created the mess we see today.
You see people trying to defend the game by saying "This is a Gacha game. This is how it works. This is how it's been for years." Now all these things are complete BS.
Genshin isn't and was never intended to be your typical mobile gacha. It tried to appeal to the mainstream audience. The instant Genshin was being developed for PC, Switch and PS4 it rose above your typical Gacha game. It wanted to cater to the mainstream crowd. Now this creates the very big problem that is the difference between Mainstream gamers like PC, PS4, Switch and Gacha Addict mobile market. While gacha addicted mobile gamers are used to being fcked over by shitty practices by those companies, the mainstream crowd is different. Some of them are completely new to the gacha system. Just accept the fact that gacha is a very bad monetization model, some games have implemented it in a nicer way which actually isn't bad, but Genshin monetization is just straight up ridiculous.
Genshin was promoted as JRPG from the very beginning instead of being your usual gacha mobile game. This is where most of the mainstream players expectations shattered. Things like being limited by stamina system for play is a norm practice in mobile games(Not all games do this but most of them do) BUT it's not in the mainstream market and this is something which is not acceptable when you go for broader market. You can't just expect them to conform to your shitty stamina system and be all happy happy. You're gonna get backlash.
​
Resin(this absolute piece of shit item in Genshin)
Resin system is just ridiculous. While being already bad in the first place, it's way worse compared to even the stamina system of other mobile gacha games. Almost 95% of the stuff you do in the game is locked behind resin system. You wanna farm Mora? go spend resin, you wanna farm exp? go spend resin, you wanna farm artifacts? go spend resin, you wanna farm upgrade materials? go spend resin. What's even more ridiculous is the amount you need per dungeons, bosses and the amount you get.
​
Resin is capped at 120. So you can run hypostasis 3 times and poof it's gone. Once you get to higher level even running hypostasis 3 times doesn't give you enough material to level up your character. The regen rate is also crap 1 resin per 8 minutes.
​
This doesn't stop here. One of the shittiest thing in the game is the weekly bosses.
YOU CAN FCKING FIGHT IT ONCE A WEEK AND IT'S STILL WALLED BEHIND RESIN. Can you see double the bs here. On top of being only available once a week you still need to spend 60 Resin just to collect rewards. The sheer amount of bs is ridiculous.
​
Let's talk Experience
To raise your character. The very first laughable thing is that beating monsters of lv60 gives you 14-15 Character exp. I mean why even have it in the first place. This is just shitty on the face of people. You need to fight monsters for months then maybe you can raise one Level of your character. The sheer amount of stupidness that fighting monsters doesn't give you Exp is just wow. You get most of the exp from those Exp Books(Adventurer's exp, Hero's Wit). And guess what you need to spend resin to get those. And what's another fcked up thing is that one run costs 20 resin and doesn't even give you enough to level up even 1 level. Yes you can get it from chests and quests but you'll run out way too soon once you reach higher levels.
​
Money walks in now which is Mora.
You need iirc 60000 Mora just to ascend a character and a lv35 Leyline gives you 44000. The amount of Mora you need to upgrade gears and characters is once again another very bad thing. You can spend few days farming 1 Million Mora and guess what it'll be gone in a poof once you get upgrade 3-4 artifacts(which you'll get fcked along the way. We'll get to that). Everything in the game needs mora be it levelling up character, talents, artifacts, weapons. The amount needed is 100x more than what you are earning. You'll always be short on this.
​
Comes in the Artifact now
You have greater chance of winning a lottery ticket than rolling good stats on the artifacts. The amount of RNG implemented on Artifacts is baffling.
First you need a good main stat(Pray to RNG), then you good secondary stats. Did you know these are also assigned via RNG. Then once you upgrade the artifact additional stats are assigned based on RNG. Once you keep upgrading the artifacts existing sub stats are upgraded(based on RNG) and more new Sub stats are assigned(Based on RNG) which are further upgraded(based on RNG). Those are whole 6-7 layers of RNG to get a good Artifact. So yeah you're better off praying of being able to kamehameha than getting a good Artifact.
You can say that no problem I'm a hardcore grinder I'll farm them till I get them. But then Resin comes and grabs your a$$ and puts you in place.
Oh did you also know that Artifact drops are RNG!? Also Domains drops multiple type of artifacts you on top praying to get a good artifact main stat, first you need to pray to get the artifact at all. And you need to do this with 6 runs per day ONLY IF YOU GRIND SINGLE DOMAIN AND NEGLECT EVERYTHING ELSE.
​
Now Don't ya worry because in comes the weapons upgrade materials
Weapon ascension materials are dropped from different domains and you need 20 resin per run and need to do multiple runs to get enough material to ascend your weapon.
​
Talent Books have joined the Chat
You thought it was over, but it was I the talent books. Yet another piece of upgrade material which drops from yet different type of domains that require resin. Higher levels require 9 per talent level to upgrade and the domain drops 1 per run.
​
Now what's the center of all the problems mentioned above? IT'S RESIN!
This single piece of item limits everything you can do in the game. The only thing you can do in this game without resin is just farming chests which(don't even get me started on this) are just another piece of shit in the game. Chest rewards are very very underwhelming. It's isn't worth farming them except for that Adventure Exp. Have you ever played a Open world RPG which limits 95% of the content behind such a system? This is one of the biggest bs in the game.
So yeah what's the game at higher levels? You login -> burn resin in 10 minutes -> you get trash -> you curse -> you logout -> rinse and repeat. Basically you're a trash collector.
​
​
Congratulations you've made it so far. Now that the resin is done we look at another horrendous aspect of the game that is Monetization and Gacha.
Now for all those white knights out there just accept the fact that the gacha rate is horrendous. 0.6% to get a 5 star character is way too low. As the CN guy said it's just double the rate of a glass blowing up.
Gacha has been for around quite a while. There are examples of good and bad gachas all around. BUT GENSHIN FALLS INTO THE WORST ONE.
You have 0.6 rate to get a 5 star character which is basically non existent and you get pity at 90 pulls. Here's comes another scummy part. At 90 pulls you have 50% chance to get the UP characters. See this bs. It's actually a pity but not a pity. You can pull 90 times but are still reliant on RNG to get you the desired character. Real pity comes at 180 Pulls which is just straight up ridiculous. 180 pulls are 32000 primogems and converting them to real life money that's a whopping $400 just one Freaking 5 star character. That's like whole month worth of food.
and Congrats if you got the 5 star character cuz that's not his full potential. You need another 6 of him to max him. So in worst case you're looking at $2400 just to max out one 5 star character. Holy flames this shit.
4 star rate is also so low that you rarely get them out of 10 pull pity which is just another scummy practice.
Cost for primogems is yet another crappy practice to greed money. $100 gives you 8800 primogems which are about 55 pulls. This is not even enough to hit that initial pity of 90 pulls let alone that 180 one.
​
Monthly Pass and Battle Pass
Another two methods of monetization that the game uses. These two are absolutely worthless. Now you may say that Monthly Pass is actually really good value. You can get 3000 Primogems for $5 which is a steal. and Yes it could have been good had the rates been decent.
Just look at what 3000 primogems net you. A 4 star character you don't want? A useless 4 star weapon? or will you hold out on to hope that it will give you a 5 star character? Even after spending money you are still reliant on that small chance to get something good.
Battle Pass. Oh don't get me started on this piece of crap. It's the single worst BP I've seen during my whole gaming life. From those ridiculous requirements which force you spend primogems to refresh resin to the locking of weekly Exp, this is just accumulation of every single crap lying around. Not even worth a shit.
​
Achievements
This doesn't fall under Monetization but is another bs aspect of the game that I'd like to discuss. Achievements spit in the face of the player. Collecting 100 chests gives you 10 primogems. and what's that number? That's 1/16 the amount you need for one damn pull. Even if we count the primogems you get from those 100 chests it nets you 200(2 from each) + 10 = 210 primogems which doesn't even amount to two pulls. I feel like this system is there just to mock the player.
​
Hats of to you. You've made it this far. Next we move on to other aspects.
​
COMMUNITY
First of all I'm very happy that people are shitting on these crappy practices and voicing their opinions. There's definitely no need to accept these types of things. Once you accept this, they'll go even lower next time.
Along with this I'm baffled at the people still trying to defend such scummy tactics. Take a look at these posts
https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j799kw/i_will_say_my_biggest_tip_to_enjoy_the_game_and/
https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j7atw9/my_take_on_the_negative_reviews_as_a_long_time/
I won't go into any of them. Feel free to look at them yourselves.
CN players are not happy and they're bashing the game everywhere and trying to make sure their voice is heard. This is what we also need to do. Some people say that "It's a Chinese Company. It won't matter whether you bitch here". This is 100% bs. This is not just a chinese game. It's released worldwide for everybody to play. They have people everywhere looking at stuff. So voice you complaints wherever you want official discord, forums, reddit, twitter, youtube, in game feedback.
Keep in mind if you don't speak at all nothing will ever change. Once they receive enough backlash from their playerbase things will get better. The community definitely has the power to change things,
Youtube channels
To be honest I was hoping for those youtube channels would bring up some of those concerns of the community but nope. Every single one of them is dripping wet for Genshin and just screaming into the mics.
"5 AWESOME TIPS FOR GENSHIN". "5 INSANE TIPS FOR GENSHIN". "5 SUPER DUPER INSANE TIPS FOR GENSHIN". "5 TIPS FOR GENSHIN TO LEVEL UP AND GET THAT HOT MILF IN YOUR AREA".
I don't mean to criticize those channels, they may create content they want, but a good chunk of community watches those channels so bringing issues with the game will definitely help.
​
"This is a Gacha Game. This is how it's supposed to be. If you don't like it quit it. You aren't enjoying the game" ---- Genshin Impact Whiteknights
First of all I have absolutely no need to hear from someone how to enjoy my game so yeah get the hell outta here with this advice.
And for all you sorry a$$ mobile gacha gaming gambling addicts out there get it through your thick skulls of yours that GENSHIN IS NOT A MOBILE GACHA GAME.
This is something even the game tries to achieve but fails very hard to do so. It wanted to be something more than your typical gacha game but in the end it's own system doomed it.
From the start Genshin is being marketed as OPEN WORLD JRPG rather than a gacha game. It also has every aspect of open world rpgs cuz that's what the game is. It is also a game that it playable on PC and console rather than mobile. 90% of the mobiles don't even run the game good. The moment Genshin touched the PC, Switch and PS4 platforms it needed to shed the skin of mobile gacha gaming concepts.
Currently the Genshin Impact for high level player is login -> burn resin in 10-15 minutes -> logout.
This is how you play Mobile Gacha games. THIS IS NOT HOW YOU PLAY PC, PS4 OR FOR THAT MATTER MAINSTREAM GAMES. This part is limited to mobile gaming. It has absolutely no place in the mainstream market cuz most of the time people play for longer hours on these systems.
Genshin is not a game that you'll play waiting at a bus stop for 5-10 minutes or waiting for your friend at the cafe. The game wants you to play it like a full RPG. and in here comes the point where the game contradicts itself.
It wants you play the game but limits it greatly or just 99% behind a stamina system.
See the absolute madness in this? This is where the greed comes in. It's where they sell Resin refills. Look at the $20 BP with extra resin, look at weekly packs in the shop selling resin. The sheer ridiculousness of the game selling you stamina just to play the game. For people waiting for the feature to pet the dogs, just hope that it doesn't cost you 20 resin to do so or they are only pettable once a week.
​
Even as a gacha game Genshin Impact is a big disappointment
This is coming from my experience as a gacha gamer. The game is literal crap when compared to other gacha games. You've got examples of great gacha games like Azur Lane around(I'm saying comparatively better, not that other ones don't have problems) but still it choose to go with worst ones.
​
​
I have nothing expect gratitude for you for reading this so far. Next we move on to the final segment that is the Company Itself.
​
Mihoyo
The final boss of all is Mihoyo itself and they themselves have been really scummy and shitty.
So far they have been completely turning a blind eye and not listening to the people at all. Starting from the very first CBT to the OBT they have received constant feedback but have completely neglected the main parts which include resin and monetization. Now keep in mind that Mihoyo is not a new company. They have been in the market for years. Their other mobile game Honkai Impact 3 is very big in CN and also quite popular in global too. Throughout constant feedback from players and being in market they have learned what's good and what's bad.
And the shittiest thing is that they choose to completely ignore it and push there scummy tactics. Let's see some of them....
​
The first and very obvious one being the gacha and monetization. Monetization was available during the CBT3 on CN server. It received quite a feedback due to rates being so low. But they still didn't change a thing. They just rolled it exactly the same way meaning they didn't pay any heed to the feedback regarding the monetization. They know about gacha and what's good and bad about it but still purposely chose to go with the shittiest kind of gacha.
​
Unskippable Cutscenes. Let's just accept it that the only reason the cutscenes are unskippable is because they want to prevent people from rerolling accounts. Though it didn't prevent them but it was their intention. That's why they even went as far as banning accounts who pulled 5 star but had no activity for 24 hours or so but didn't even touch those accounts that only had 4 stars. Criticism threads on the official forums are being deleted. Just another scummy tactic.
​
There have been constant bashing on CN forums since 15th, taptap score is 4.7 and on other forums too. Yet they still haven't considered any of them and are just ignoring their playerbase completely.
​
What's Mihoyo trying to do?
At this point it's either two possibilities one that either they didn't research enough into the mainstream audience or it's just deliberate. And the chance of it being the former is let's say 0.6
It seems like rather than catering to what the mainstream playerbase expects, Mihoyo is trying to lure them into the shady and absolute bs world of Mobile Gacha gaming. This is what garnered so much hate from the mainstream audience. While the gacha gaming addicts are used to being fcked over by these scummy tactics all year around, this is not the case with others. Some of them are even completely new to the terms like Gacha. And just accept the fact that Gacha is a horrendous system of monetization. Like Gigguk said "Who said gacha is like drugs. Drugs are way cheaper." To any sane person this model of monetization is absolute bs and it is. Even among this Monetization Genshin goes for the worst one their is. So yeah expecting a whole different player crowd to shut up and just fall into crappy and scummy practices is not gonna work and is definitely gonna blow up in your face.
And I hope that people continue to bash such systems cuz if such kind of system is accepted it will shift many other aspects to the shittier side and thing will continue to get worse. This is the reason why mobile gacha gaming is so bad. The devs pushed poorer rates and people just sat there and accepted it blowing thousands on such practices. This is the reason why something like 0.6% chance to get a 5 star character exists. It's derived from the Mobile Gacha Gaming.
​
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What's all these complaining posts? Why don't you just enjoy the game?
FCKING STOP PROTECTING/WHITE KNIGHTING THESE SCUMMY PRACTICES. First of all get it through your thick skulls that the who are doing the so called "complaining" are doing it because they love the game and WANT IT TO BE BETTER. They aren't doing it out of spite or anything.
You can dismiss a few troll threads when a user is hating without a reason anywhere. But know that when multiple people are complaining about one thing it means there is something wrong with that. People are making long posts giving proper reasons as to why something is bad and giving a reply like "This is how it is. Quit if you don't like it." is a rotten and crappy mindset.
The reason people are taking their time to write of such lengthy posts is because they genuinely love the game and want it to be better and more awesome. That's why something called "FEEDBACK" exists in this world. As it stands the game is just heading to its doom and the people trying to prevent it are the ones who care about it. People giving crappy answers are contributing nothing to it.
And let me ask this question why do you have to fcking head crash into people who care? Is it bad that the game gets better and everybody enjoys it rather than your sorry a$$ of a gacha gambling addict.
A fact is that if things get better these so called white knights will be jumping in joy too. BUT THERE IS ONE VERY BIG DIFFERENCE. They will call it like "Wow! mihoyo is so generous. They're the best devs in the world." rather than actually crediting it to the people who made the change possible.
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FINAL WORDS
The game itself is very beautiful. The awesome Open world map, absolutely banger soundtrack all are just too good. I absolutely love the game itself. But the current game system is very flawed and this needs to addressed as soon as possible.
If Genshin Impact stays like this, it will be removed from the mainstream audience. That's why changes need to occur if they want this crowd to stay, otherwise if all want is just money then they'll carry on with these shitty practices.
Know that at the end of all this if nothing is changed Genshin will just be another Generic Mobile Gacha Game where you'll save primogems for months for a char -> Get fcked by abyssal rates -> Curse the devs and game -> Go to sleep -> Rinse and repeat and if you enjoy it that's good for you. What sucks the most is that a game with so much potential will be ruined.

Is it to assert your skill dominance?
Well, sure. You're mechanically sound and you can probably carry this match if given the chance. But why are you in this tier? If you are that good, shouldn't you be competing in Diamond, Masters or Challenger? But here you are stuck with a trash player like me on Emerald. Speaks volumes of your actual skill. You are probably as inconsistent as I am when trying to climb out of this tier. People like me should be tiers beneath you. But no, you are right where you deserve to be.
Oh, maybe it's a smurf account?
Great. Maybe you are that good and you need a "break" from actual competition so you could flex your outstanding skills on noobs like myself. So you already know what what you were getting yourself into by swimming in the trash pool with guys like me. Do you expect to find a CoreJJ in here? Then, why are you complaining? Lesser skilled dogs like myself are still trying even though we know we won't be pro players anytime soon.
So, do you expect the team to get better with what you chat?
I'm amazed by how much time some people actually spend on the in-game keyboard than actually playing at times. So you like to flame? Get ready to burn down our chances of winning. Nobody with some level of maturity likes to read this crap. We mostly have jobs and play this game on whatever limited spare time, so our mechanics won't develop as much as the kids who have hours to spend on this game. Sure, we will probably have a skill gap but your words will not close that gap anytime soon. I've played over 1000 matches and based on my humble experience, results tend to get better when people STOP their insults and just focus on playing instead.
Thank you. And maybe I'll see you again.

Getting to the top 0.3% of the playerbase is no easy task. Many have tried and failed, but I believe, with a bit of determination and patience, anyone can do it. I'm YaBoiRexy, a three-time Grandmaster with over 3,000 hours of playtime. Here are my tips.
General tips

1. Throw your dignity out the window. This isn't the middle ages, no one cares about honour. Play the annoying, cancerous, and brain-dead characters if they are the best choice in the current situation.
   
2. Don't be a meta-whore. Meta characters are the characters that provide the most benefits in most situations. They aren't the characters who provide the most benefit in every situation. Quite often, an off-meta character will be a better choice than a meta one. Sometimes, a very bad character would be a great choice just because you are a god with them.
   
3. Don't completely disregard the meta. This goes against the previous point, but that's on purpose; it's a fine balance. You should always have at least one tank and healer. You should never solo-tank with someone like a Torvald or solo-heal with someone like a Grohk. Your first pick shouldn't be a bottom-tier character. Your comp should have a purpose.
   
4. If you're completely, dead-set on getting to masters in as effective of a manner as possible, don't try to have a lot of fun. Having fun is great, but make it your #2 priority. Your #1 priority should always be to play to win, and if that means picking your least favourite character, then so be it.
   
5. Be prepared to fill. This doesn't only apply to healers and tanks, but DPS too. If you are first-pick, then it is heavily recommended that you play Damage or Flank, since these have the highest carry potential. Now, this doesn't mean that support mains should insta-pick a level 7 talus just because they're first pick, but keep it in mind. You might not enjoy this as much, but it works faster.
   
6. Actually play the game! If you want to get to masters in any reasonable timeframe, you should be dedicated to playing the game at least 3 hours a day. This is because climbing takes time, even someone with a 70% winrate, which is godlike btw, will not climb with 3 games a day. If they play 50 games over 1 month, the net 10 wins aren't enough to climb more than one rank.
   
7. Never give up mid-match. Paladins gives winners a huge advantage with the comeback mechanic, which means, basically, the losing team only needs to get 70% to capture the point. That's a huge advantage!
   

Skills needed, and how to identify your problems.

1. Mechanics. This is things like flicking, tracking, dodging enemy shots, aiming. This is 99% practice.
   
2. Gamesense. This is things like knowing how much ult charge the enemies have, when to use your abilities and ultimate, which enemy to shoot.
   
3. Positioning. This is standing in the correct spot, and moving as the correct spot changes.
   

To improve these skills, I recommend a tactic known as death-tracking. Before you start a match, get a piece of paper. Digital doesn't really work as well, because you have to window-swap, but if it's your only option it's better than nothing. Divide the paper into 3 sections, one for each of the above skills. Whenever you die, put one tally mark next to the skill that you think you needed more of to survive there.
Some examples:

• If you die because you missed, that's mechanics.
  
• If you die because you entered a room that you didn't know had 3 enemies inside, that's gamesense.
  
• If you wasted an ultimate or ability that costed you your life, that's gamesense.
  
• If you entered a room that you knew had more than 1 enemy inside, and you incorrectly thought you could 1v2 them, that's positioning.
  
• If you died to an enemy ult or ability that you had no idea was available, that's gamesense.
  
• If you jumped off of the highground and died immediately, that's positioning. Similarly, if you didn't take the highground when it would have saved you, that's positioning.
  
• If you rushed an enemy you thought was low when they actually just got healed by their healer or shielded by their tank, that's gamesense.
  
• Generally speaking, if you died because of a lack of information, that's gamesense.
  
• Generally speaking, if you died because of highground advantage, lack of cover, or lack of teammates nearby, that's positioning.
  
• Generally speaking, if you died because you missed your shots, abilities, or ultimate, that's mechanics,
  

Do that during every match for maybe 5-10 matches (preferably more than one session) and you should have an idea of what your general problem is. Repeat the same step with more in-depth topics, for example, if you found your general issue was positioning, you could make the next sections "Highground," "LoS to team," "Lack of cover," and "LoS to enemies." Then maybe break it down even further.
How to improve after you know your problems.
Mechanics are mainly practice. Find your sensitivity and stick to it almost forever. Use your movement keys to help you track more precisely by moving in the same direction your enemy strafes. On snipers, wait for them to get into your reticle instead of moving your reticle to them, it's easier and works better 90% of the time. If you go against an Andro, Maeve, or Evie, that won't work, so try to practice flickshots too. Just not in ranked. Use an aim-trainer if you're on PC.
Gamesense needs you to understand the kits of characters. Try to play every character to at least level 10. This will help you understand their abilities and weaknesses. If there's a single character that's giving you way more trouble than most, play them for even longer. Maybe even main them for a bit. Understand when to use your abilities.
If an ultimate is going to get a kill in a fair or one-man-down teamfight, use it. Don't use it when you're already winning the teamfight or have no chance (like a 3v5) then don't ult. If you are absolutely certain that the payload is lost/won (over 40% distance left with overtime active) don't ult. It's generally better to make sure you have your ult for the point fight, payload ult that you won't get back isn't actually that bad if it gets something accomplished. However, if your ult is overpowered (Furia, Ying, Khan) make sure you always, absolutely always want to make sure to have it for the point fight.
Positioning is by far the most simple. 80% of it can be learned from simple one-sentence rules to follow:

• Keep highground as long as possible. Only get off if it's going to get you a kill or save your or a teammate's life.
  
• Try to have line-of-sight to as many allies as possible.
  
• Try to not have a direct line of sight to more than 2 enemies. By direct, I mean they can shoot you and deal substantial amounts of damage in a short period of time.
  

Champ specific positioning:

• Snipers should understand that their line-of-sight defines the entire teamfight. A lone enemy in your sights is as good as dead, and so they can't stand there without a metric crap-ton of resources (Many heals, multiple shields). If your team works best on the right, stand to the left to force enemies to the right. If your team is passive, camp in the back. If your team is aggressive, reposition frequently to be in the right place and blocking the right. It changes massively from match to match. Make sure there aren't a massive number of flank routes to your position.
  
• Main Tanks should hold choke points. They need to act as a buffer between their team and the enemy. This is most frequently the objective, but it can be other places too. It should be: Your team | You | Enemy point tank | Enemy team.
  
• Offtanks need to relieve pressure for their team by forcing the enemy to spend time on you. You are not going to get kills or a lot of damage, your job in most situations is a complicated distraction. While a flank gets in the enemy backline, kills, gets out, your job is different. You are basically setting up a base-of-operations in the enemy backline. Basically, you need to be in a safe but threatening position, then say "Hey! Pay attention to me!" This allows your team to make plays.
  
• Flanks have the most complex positioning. You have to be safe and in danger at the same time. You can't kill without being in danger, but you die if you aren't safe. Make sure you always have an escape route.
  

In my 40 years on this earth I have noticed that women are the ones left hurt and feeling like the fool more often than not. I started wondering, why? I observed both men and women and I'd like to share my findings with you ladies (even though it's not great to hear). Keep in mind, these things are not "all women" but way too many. No need to worry if you identify with some of this because if you follow FDS rules, they protect you from all of these ways men "win" and women "lose":

1. Women don't listen to warnings. I have never met a woman who listens when being told her new love interest is a creep or abuser.. not one! Men DO listen to warnings, they will even dump her for silly and untrue ones.
   
2. Women don't listen to red flags. She sees him being rude to other people or watches him punch a wall and she somehow doesn't link that with her being in danger. Even "pettier" red flags such as "cheapness" get ignored and then one day she is miserable and paying his bills. While this is happening, women are being ghosted by men for even imagined red flags.
   
3. Some women don't even listen to themselves. This is the most tragic in all of the ways to refuse to listen. If she even kinda wants a guy she ignores her own gut feelings and valid reservations. Guys typically don't betray themselves in this way for anyone.
   
4. When a guy lies, manipulates, breadcrumbs or love bombs a woman is finally listening. Instead of hearing a load of shite, these are the things tons of women hang on to. Men win because this crap actually works.
   
5. So many excuses for men! "He is just tired!", "He has a five year plan!", "He is going through a lot right now!", "He promised he wont do it again!". It's mostly women who do this. Men tend to put blame on other people, it's usually unfair but gives them major advantage over women. She won't blame him but he blames her.
   
6. Women don't even know they are playing a game. It is shockingly easy to lose a game if she is being genuine and not even playing. He has motives or he wouldn't get off his ass and most guys don't even give anything past sex a second thought.
   
7. Some women finally realize that they are playing a game and try to beat him at it.. by giving him exactly what he wants. He wants cheap, easy sex and the ability to pine over what he can't have. Do you think women are somehow winning by giving him this?
   
8. Women put chemical bonding over their functional brains. "The heart wants what it wants" scares me every time I hear it. The "heart" is a dumbass that wants to get laid to breed. This is why women think clearer before sex and men think clearer after. She chemically attaches to a man but his "job" chemically is already done. She is the one getting biologically screwed over.
   
9. There is a "like bias". Women try to "pre-like" a man. She doesn't want to date a bunch of losers, get used for sex multiple times or be alone so she comes at a new men like she already likes him and his only job is to not screw it up. GUYS KNOW THIS! That's part of the reason why men lie and pretend their asses off. The smartest ones are quiet as a mouse, can't screw it up if he doesn't talk. So easy to win when he's already won.
   
10. Sure, a lot men may want what they can't have.. but a lot women chase what they don't even want. Some ladies want approval or to be married so badly that she refuses to really think if she even wants the life with HIM that she is fighting for. This keeps noncommittal scrotes in business ..and business these days is good.
    
11. Men know when they want something "casual" from a specific woman and that almost never changes. While women give up her whole heart and wait for "potential". This keeps women losing because she will stick around and give him free sex and labor in hopes he will change his mind (or himself) but he never will and he still gets all the benefits.
    
12. A lot of women will look at tiny bits of the positive and flush everything else down the toilet: "Yeah he cheats on me, ignores my texts, talks crap about me to his mom, never pays for anything.. but once every few months he buys me flowers and he can be really sweet :)" . Look at all his ill gotten gains, all for the price of scraps.
    
13. Women forgive. It is beautiful.. forgive your loyal friends, your pets and well-meaning people for not being perfect. Do not forgive men for their crap because most men won't forgive you (especially for cheating). It's just another way girls take the loss, sticking around with people who don't deserve a second chance when they wouldn't even do the same for her.
    
14. It pains me to see but many women think they have something to prove. They don't want to be seen as a "slut", lazy, a gold digger, not cool, or a bad girlfriend etc. This can make some girls go full PickMe but even if she doesn't, this still sets her up to be exploited by men who win massively from her discomfort.
    
15. The average woman will also naturally give way more than she receives. This one is obvious, both in observation and in how men win from that. She doesn't even need to be a PickMe to lose from this one, it can happen slowly and incrementally until any woman looks around and finally notices she has the short end of the stick.
    
16. WOMEN WONT LEAVE. This is by far the thing that makes women lose the most. It doesn't matter who he is, what he has done, what she has accepted up until this point because she can start to heal and forgive herself if she walks away. He stops winning if she walks away.. but she won't. Most ladies will stay until he is won all he wants to win and he leaves her, or he pulls some nasty final discard that makes her go but that wasn't HER idea now was it?
    

First Chapter Chapter 6-The Second Dojo Chapter 8- If...
Chapter 7-Private Lessons and Private Conversations
Travis stood over the pan, watching the bacon fry. He had set it in the pan about 2 minutes ago and it was sizzling rather nicely. He had eggs whipped up for scrambled eggs ready and the batter ready to fry. Mel’Bae was in the shower. It had been three months since he and Mel’Bae had started dating and things were going great. The dojo had grown in the first month to about 20 new students, but over the month it fell to about twelve, when the ladies figured out it wasn’t a dating service. Well, not intentionally.
Tonboon, the usually studious med student had become a bit of a ladies man. Hell, he practically had a sign-up sheet! Sensei had to take him aside and give him a talk about not hooking up inside the dojo. What he does outside is ok, but in class we gotta keep it professional. He’s almost a black belt and the rules are different when you attain that rank. Tonboon and Travis weren’t the only ones that had been involved with the Shil’vati in more than a professional manner. While Travis hadn’t seen Sensei or Sadie. Travis had seen Mark sneaking out of one of the officer’s quarters. It took Travis a moment of shock to process what he was feeling. He hadn’t had the time to even form the words in his head: What do I do about this? Should I tell Julie? When he then saw her, sneaking out of the same room. Oh, well thank Goddess for that!
Goddess? Damn Mel’Bae’s rubbing off on me.
Travis was staying over with her about three or four times a week now. They were still being exclusive together. They had talked about maybe adding someone new, but he wasn’t ready for that yet.
The bacon was done so he pulled it out. He skimmed off a bit of grease and then added the eggs to what remained, letting it slowly fry before folding it over itself to make sure the eggs turned out smooth and not dry. Using a towel, he wicked his forehead to keep the sweat out of his eyes from the hot stove and the hot room.
He had come up with a novel solution to staying in a room set to her preferred temperature. He was wearing a YUKATA. The thin, cotton KIMONO-like robe that was a gift from a friend during a summer festival in Japan was comfortable at Shil’vati temperatures, it also covered his body enough for their ideas of male modesty. It worked well in the kitchen too, as it kept him from violating the general rules of bachelor cooking:
1 Always wash your hands before going to the bathroom if you have been handling chilies.
2 Never fry bacon naked.
It also had one more advantage: it was easy to slip on and off.
The eggs were ready and he put them on a serving plate. Next he re-greased the pan with some of the leftover bacon grease and began to pour the batter in small batches waiting for it to fry and bubble up. When it was golden brown he flipped it over to cook on the other side.
Mel’Bae got out of the shower, she pulled on a sports bra and a pair of shorts. Then toweled her long hair off before tying it loosely behind her back, she usually did this most mornings now waiting to put it up in her usual bun until after breakfast when she had to go on duty.
Travis set the table and each scooped eggs and bacon out onto their plate. For the other item Travis had some honey (real maple syrup was out of his price range, and he refused to buy the imitation “maple flavored” crap) and some elderberry jam his mom had sent him. Mel’Bae and his mom hadn’t met in person yet, but they had talked through video conferencing. Similarly, Travis had only seen recorded messages from Mel’bae’s family. She apparently had six mothers. All of whom Travis was trying to tell apart. No real word sent by her father though. Deal with that later, Travis thought.
“I’ve got to run back to my apartment today,” He told Mel’Bae. “But I should be back by the time you’re off duty. I’ve got a private class with Nosis at ten o’clock and his wife probably will want to talk to me afterward.” Nosis was Agent Sommarsdar’s young husband. Travis couldn’t judge the dude for marrying into money, I mean both men and women have been doing that for centuries.
He was coming along as a good student and taking private lessons from Travis had improved him in regular classes quite a bit. Though it was odd, training with him felt a lot like training with a gentler version of Sadie. Which is either the most logical or the strangest thing to think.
“I’ll pick up some stuff from the commissary annex for dinner,” Mel’Bae offered. The Base’s version of a grocery store.“ Any chance back in town you could pick up some more of the stuff to make these?” She asked as she held up a piece of one of the golden brown disks with her fork. “They’re really good. What are they called again?”
“They’re flapjacks.” Travis told her.
_____________________
Mel’Bae gave him a quick kiss as she headed out to start her shift in the shuttle hangar. Things between them hadn’t cooled in the bedroom exactly, but they were restraining themselves from copulating in the mornings, well in the mornings she had to go on duty. If they both had Shel off…
He hung up his YUKATA and took a shower. Getting ready for his private class. The stipend the military was paying for Sensei to teach lessons was enough to keep their regular dojo open, though they still didn’t have any new students walk through the door. And with Travis teaching some private classes he had enough money to meet his needs without having to bounce if he didn’t want to. He would occasionally pick up a shift as a favor to someone, but that was just as a little extra spending money.
Showered and shaved, he put on his regular clothes and placed his GI in his backpack. He loaded up the omni-pad Mel’Bae gave him as a gift. Saved on it was the complete series of Aikido videos he could use to show Nosis to help him understand how techniques could be done. In a ready-to-transfer file he had uploaded a bunch of videos and texts for his wife to help her understand humanity better.
Perhaps it was all just subterfuge, him teaching her husband, but Agent Sommarsdar had been picking his brain to help herself understand humanity. And if it meant less loss of life to help the Shil’vati figure out how to drain the ranks of angry young men and women from the rebels, then he was happy to do it. Today’s collection was of original texts, essays, and commentaries from some of the great thinkers in human military strategy. Clausewitz, Sun Tsu, Musashi Miyamoto, Max Brooks.
All packed up he turned his attention to clearing the dishes and getting some laundry done before his class. Since he was crashing at her place he had taken up more responsibilities of basic housework. It was best to try to use the laundry room in the mornings when most of the Marines were on shift. Nobody had yet tried “the ol’ grab ‘em by the dick” brand of courtship with him yet. However the best way to win a confrontation was to not be in one. Gathering up his and Mel’Bae’s clothes he headed out.
__________________
“SHIT!” Nosis whined as Travis corrected his movement, showing him how to lift his arm in such a way that his whole body was aligned in the movement and focused on the weakest part of his partners arm allowing it to raise easily.
“It’s OK, just remember to keep your hand inside of his arm, if it goes to the outside he ..um..or she can use their bicep to pull you down. Raising this way works on the triceps muscle which is not as strong. But the most important part of Tenshinage is the bottom hand. You’ve got to draw it down and to the side like this.” Travis slid at a forty-five degree angle in toward Nosis and lowered his hand that he was grabbing. Nosis’ shoulder dropped and he lost his balance. “Like this, Tenshinage doesn’t look like much, and almost nobody will ever grab you this way, but It has the building blocks of a lot of different moves.
“How do you remember all of this stuff!?!” He asked exasperatedly.
“Hey, remember, over ten years vs about three months. You’ll get there, you just have to keep trying and have patience. It’s like Zen meditation, minus the getting hit with sticks part. You do it a thousand times, or ten thousand times wrong then one day it comes to you.”
“If you two are ready to call it a day, I’ve got us some lunch.” Said Agent Sommarsdar coming into the room. Travis had been teaching Nosis for the last two hours in their home.
“Sure we can end here.” Travis then turned to Nosis and bowed.
“Thank you, Sensei.” Nosis called out
“Hey, remember, our Sensei is Sensei, I’m just Travis or if you want to Travis Sensei.”
“Sorry, Travis Sensei.”
“Don’t worry about it just remember next time. Ok on three.”
“Domo arigato gozaimasu,” They bowed to the picture of the O sensei, the founder, that Travis had brought. “Well, let’s get lunch.”
_________________
Sitting around the table eating with the two of them it was easy to remember how alien they were. Agent Sommarsdar treated her husband with a level of pampering or maybe mothering he and Mel’Bae definitely did not have with each other nor did he want there to be. She was practically spooning his food into his mouth for him. It made the conversation a little distracted. “What you really need to understand is very complex in its simplicity: if humans feel they are treated well, we will be the best friend you ever had. If we feel disrespected and put down, we’ll hate ya till the day you die.”
“But we are treating you well. Your standard of living has increased significantly and you are from what was the wealthiest of your nation states. What we’ve done for some of your ‘lesser developed nations’ should have been seen as a Goddess sent miracle.”
“You’re right, but that’s not how most people feel,” he tried to explain. “For a lot of people anti Shil’vati sentiment and resistance started when we saw the footage of that incident at the Grimmsville Hospital. None of us knew that woman, or her husband, but seeing that we all felt like we did. She could have been our sister, or wife, or mother. That could have been our child or grandchild. If the roles were reversed Nosis, even with amazing leaps forward in living do you think you could forgive?”
Nosis looked at Travis, you could see that the idea had struck a nerve with him. And with his wife. “Have you...”, he asked, “Been able to forgive?”
“I try to.” Travis thought about the best way to phrase his next words. “I try to remember that Shil’vati are people no better or worse. and judge the individual by their actions. Do I feel that the Shil’vati in charge should face some punishment for her incompetence? Yes.” This garnered a look from Agent Sommarsdar, She seemed to be thinking of something, or remembering. "However, I don’t blame all of the imperium for her actions. It's hard sometimes to separate the actions of a system from that of the individuals in that system. But that’s basically how my country was founded.”
“Have you read any of the works about the British Empire?” He continued. “They, at their height, controlled a quarter of the planet. The country I grew up in was started when they felt disrespected. They fought because they were taxed without having a say in the government. From that start they became the world's largest political and military power. I grew up believing in the idea of ‘American Exceptionalism’. The idea that we were, despite our faults, the best there was. That belief has been shattered and many now feel that they are fighting to get that back.” Travis took a breath. “Even though they’re fighting for an idea that was a lie. Yeah America had the greatest military strength, but we also had a crumbling infrastructure and massive debt that was the cost of that military. There was a political deadlock that made sure every problem was politicized and argued about endlessly and never fixed.”
“So you never saw this American Exceptionalism?” She asked holding out another morsel for Nosis to pluck from her hand.
“I saw it every time I saw a homeless man with a sign that read:
HOMELESS VET
PLEASE HELP
GOD BLESS”
“I hope you’re not thinking of The Imperium as some kind of flawed saviors.” Nosis added. Which earned him a reproachful look from his wife. Travis had learned that he was the far more liberal of the two.“
“Oh God...dess no!” He blurted out. “I know you didn’t come here for our benefit but for yours. You took us over ‘cause we were here. But in the end It’s simple. Like a… a marriage.” Pointing to the two of them. “Humanity needs to feel special.”
“That’s a lot to think about,” Agent Sommarsdar replied. “But sadly our lunch needs to come to an end. I’ve got to get back to the office, my sweet.” she said to Nosis.
“Yeah I gotta get going too. Before I go though, have you thought about that riddle I gave you.”
“I have but I’m still puzzled.”
“What riddle?” Nosis asked.
“Maybe you can solve it for her. What’s the easiest way to get someone to clean your house for free? Think about it awhile and maybe next private class you can give me an answer.”
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Travis walked around the grocery store picking up the ingredients for making more pancakes as well as some large ham steaks that would go well with them. It seemed like he was turning more into a homemaker, cooking and taking care of Mel’Bae, but to be honest there wasn’t much to do with his time right now that his financial situation was more stable.
It was strange the way things that would appear bizarre to an outsider become normalized after a few months. The fact that he was practically living with Mel’Bae now was one of those bizarre facts. For humans it was bizarre because he was livin’ in sin with an alien woman, and for Shil’vati because he was doing it with only one of them. But hey, it was working for them right now so why try to mess with a good thing? However, he knew his ego would draw the line if she tried to start hand feeding him.
Nosis had been a wealth of information for Travis on how the Shil’vati were viewing his group. Being that they are the first civilian employees on any military base. In a way, it was funny, the nicknames the ladies came up with for them sounded almost like they were a boy band. Sensei was still Sensei, but Tonboon was the sexy one. Sadie was the scary one. Julie and Mark were the lovers. And Travis?
The boring one.
Heading up to the check out Travis thought. Who cares if I’m boring, I’ve got a lover and I’m getting laid regularly. How many of them can claim that? The answer to that though probably depended on how tired Tonboon was on any given day. Sensei and himself might have to do another sit down with their soon to be black belt in the near future.
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Travis walked down the hallway to his apartment door. Grocery bag in his left hand as he took out his phone. He had gotten through the security check point rather fast. Last time he had been stopped and taken into the back room because the marine on station was one of their students and she had a question about last class. Which then turned into a fifteen minute impromptu workshop on Kaitennage. Travis unlocked his phone and looked at his messages. It had been a while since he had come back to his apartment. He started writing down the codes for his door so that he wouldn't forget. He glanced at the number and then put his phone away. Even now too many people still spent most of their life looking at a screen and not paying attention. Before coming up with the idea to teach the Shil’vati, Travis had thought about printing up business cards that had the dojo’s logo and phone number on them. Then have everyone go around slapping them onto the screen of someone they notice being too absorbed in their phone or tablet or omni-pad. The card would simply read. If you knew Aikido, I would have never got this close.
Getting to the door he keyed in the code and pressed UNLOCK. The door pushed open. Home sweet home, except for the three men standing in his room. One of whom was the man that had followed him from the hotel.
First Chapter Chapter 6-The Second Dojo Chapter 8- If...
Author's Post Script: Thank you again to u/WastedHope17 for all of his help as well as my Beta readers. You all ROCK!
I'm not sure how long I can commit to two chapters a week due to my work picking up but I will try to continue till I cannot.
Thank you all again for reading my work.

So I've been spamming games to hit Master again, and I'm glad to see that the flow of the game has changed a lot with the adjustment to rolling odds, new champions, less exodia comps, etc.
However, one really problematic trend I'm starting to see is how obnoxiously powerful 2-cost chosens are in the early game. This is especially so when players hit them as their guaranteed chosen before round 2-2, and I think it's a hugely unfun RNG element in the game right now.
Practically all the 2-cost units are strong, and with the exception of probably Lulu and maybe for some people Janna (although I think she's still crazy good), it's a no-brainer to pick up a 2-cost chosen if you highroll one at 2-2. Half of them are essentially unkillable, and the other half (if utilized effectively) can give a huge power boost to your team just by the nature of being 2-star or are just your carry for a basically guaranteed top 4 like Zed.
And on top of being really strong units that can cause you to easily winstreak sometimes all the way through stage 3, early game has never been more aggressive. Focusing on econ on stage 2 is a great way to speedrun an eighth place finish in the lobby if you aren't careful, and I've found myself consistently regretting trying to save money instead of aggressively leveling and playing my strongest board.
The game-winning strategy seems to be to pray you DON'T hit a chosen by 2-1 so you can level to 4 and try your luck at finding that 2-star 2-cost unit with bonus stats that costs 6 gold, but could end up making you 30 gold and save you from the possibility of being 60 hp at the end of stage 2 because 6 players are level 5 for half the stage and you couldn't star up your units.
And you still can just forget about rolling on stage 2. It's very unlikely to save you from having a weak board, and even if it did it's such a huge blow to your econ that you're just postponing the inevitable ruthless beating you're going to take when you can't get strong at 4-1 because you have no money to roll down with.
Most games, I feel like the early game is playing itself more than I'm playing the early game. I had a game today where I got a Shyvana as my "gold" on stage 1 and then hit keeper chosen Rakan and basically just died laughing as my dragonsoul Shyvana deleted everyone's permanently disarmed boards. I actually could have just walked away from my computer and came back at stage 4 and still had more hp than 3 other players, and that's just really upsetting considering that's about the halfway point (if not some people's endgame) before I have to touch my mouse and keyboard again.
So now, I want to discuss possible solutions, which I hope people will weigh in on in the comments :)
The first option, and also the simplest one, would be to move up the guaranteed chosen to 2-1. In my opinion, this should have already been implemented. I'm not a huge fan of getting dumpstered on 2-1 through absolutely no fault of my own and losing 8 hp right out of the gate because all I rolled were Elise, Tristana, and Brand pairs. Additionally, this would make 1-cost reroll comps less "just hit" than they are currently. It feels so bad to level to 4 on 2-1, then get assassin chosen Diana on 2-2, knowing you are probably throwing the game right from the start if you don't highroll at least 4 more of them before you hit level 5 at Krugs after slamming items on her.
Another option would be to nerf the crap out of the 2-cost units. Personally, I really don't like this option. 2-cost units being strong is really fun and refreshing, and with 1-costs being relatively quite weak compared to previous sets, it would make the early game insufferably dull. Also, at the rate as which Riot ships changes (which I don't want to criticize here, I understand how important it is not to throw a shrapnel bomb into the game every week) it would be the end of the set before this was effectively implemented.
A third option would be to lower the chance of getting a 2-cost chosen at level 4. On it's face, this might seem like a solution, but I think it would actually exacerbate the problem. The issue with the 2-cost chosen isn't that you're likely to hit it, it's that IF you hit it you don't have to think about the game anymore. This change would lower the likelihood of hitting a 2-cost chosen, but wouldn't actually prevent it from happening. It then would start to mirror highrolling a 4-cost chosen at level 7, which is similarly annoying since it never happens to me, just my enemies :/
And lastly, they could guarantee that your first chosen is a 1-cost. This is by far the most exciting solution. We talked about how aggressive early game is right now, and one side-effect of early game being so punishing is that skipping your guaranteed chosen is really dangerous. You might not see another one for a couple of rounds, and even if you did find another, it might still be trash and you'll have griefed away 20 hp for mage Twisted Fate at 2-5. I think this change would prevent the immediate 2-cost chosen powerspike at 2-2, but also would deliver greatly on the theme of this set, which is Fates. Fate has chosen this unit for you, similar in strength to the champions offered to your rivals. Refuse your fate at your own peril. Chills...The only caveat is that they would have to make some of the 1-cost chosens not so incredibly awful to run, which could be a balance nightmare; but maybe not, what do I know?
In my opinion, a combination of the first change and the last change would be the most effective. It would drastically reduce the variance of players' early game boards and bring back the importance of mastering playing what you're given early.
But I want to know what you guys think. How can we address the early game variance best and get 2-cost chosen in a more balanced spot?
And if you've made it this far, thank you :)