Setting the Stage for the 2021 Draft

It's time to start looking forward to the 2021 NFL Draft now that we are officially eliminated from the postseason AND are picking at #4 (as of right now. I don't expect that to change much, especially given our final two opponents, the Washington Football Team and New Orleans, will be looking for either a division crown or an outside shot at the #1 seed in the playoffs). The big question surrounding who we should pick will be swirling for a while, with people throwing out Micah Parsons or Pat Surtain II. I don't think, however, that we will be picking anything other than a QB. Coach Rhule has already criticized Teddy a couple of times already.
As I've said before, I believe the plan all along was to let Teddy take the reins this year so that the team would have some veteran leadership, and then see where he guided us. Then, in 2021, the plan was always to take a QB in either the 1st or 2nd round, and let that QB sit behind Teddy for the majority of the 2021 season, and then cut ties with Teddy at the end of 2021 and let the drafted QB take over going into the 2022 season. (This is why Teddy's contract has a $21m savings if we release him after the 2021 season.)

The 2021 Draft Forecast

The 2021 Draft is unique because it is THE QB Draft. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have always been the two favorites going into season, much the same way Andrew Luck and RGIII were obvious #1 and #2 in the QB prospect rankings in 2011. But beyond that, this year there is a load of talent in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of QBs that could all make franchise QBs. Trey Lance was always considered the "third wheel" of the group, and Zach Wilson was seen as the back-end of the 1st round guy. He's obviously moved up with stellar play, but so have guys like Mac Jones.
Now that we're picking 4th, I've noticed some posters say we should try and trade up to #2 and get Fields. This, should be, out of the question. The Draft Trade Value Chart is still very much a baseline for teams to use, even though it is now over 3 decades old. Looking at the Draft Value Chart, the #2 pick is worth 2649 points. That is our destination. Our #4 pick is worth only 2297, which puts us almost 400 total points behind the #2 spot. To make up that ground, we would need to likely give up our 3rd round pick to move up as well. Normally that's not a huge deal, but the problem here is that this Draft is incredibly lopsided towards QBs, which pushes every other position down the board. There are LOTS of LT prospects in the Draft that can be had in the 30-38 range (Leatherwood, Radunz, Christensen, Little, etc.) and even more LB prospects to be found in the 50-70 range (Werner, Surratt, Collins, Robertson, etc.). We can't risk that range of picks moving up when there's so much other value on the table later on.
With all of that being said, the focus here is on Trey Lance versus Zach Wilson. My guess is that most of you have only heard the name or saw highlights of Trey Lance, and possibly even Zach Wilson. I've been fortunate enough to watch a ton of NDSU games, and have been able to watch Zach Wilson play this year since the FCS has taken the Fall off, and Lance is preparing for the NFL Draft (sans one showcase game, but we'll get to that).

The Prospects: Trey Lance

Height: 6'4 (listed, will probably be closer to 6'3 1/2)
Weight: 225lbs (listed, though he'll probably weigh in around 220)
Age: 20 (will turn 21 right after the Draft)
2020 Stats: 15-30/149 yards/2 TDs/1 INT | 15 rushes/143 yards/2TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: Deshaun Watson
(Before I start, here's a cool little video from College Gameday that ESPN did earlier this year.)
The numbers for Trey Lance seem weird when looking at them objectively. Only played in one game this year, and played an extremely odd game. But there's more to Trey than just his numbers this season. First, NDSU only played one game this Fall, due to the FCS sitting out the Fall sports program and moving to Spring. His 2019 numbers are eye-popping, however.
192-287/2786 yards/28 TDs/0 INT | 169 rushes/1100 yards/14 TDs
Those numbers are absolutely insane. Sure, they come against FCS teams, but even still, he's a man amongst boys.
There are times when it looks like Trey Lance is already an NFL QB. He calls his plays from the huddle, he calls his own protections from under center at the LoS, and then takes his snaps from under center and operates out of either an I-formation or a single back set a majority of the time. In fact, read this excerpt from ESPN about how Lance approaches the gameplan of football.

During game weeks, Lance studies hours of tape in preparation. On Mondays, he reviews the opponents' overall schemes; Tuesdays are for third down; Wednesdays for red zone; and Thursdays for two-minute offense. On Fridays, after cutting film the previous day, Lance presents the game plan to his receivers, telling them where they need to be in particular concepts.

That's right, Lance draws up his own gameplans for his receivers and their routes. So, yes, the NDSU offense does, at times, look like guys are being schemed just absolutely wide open, while Lance just throws strike after strike down the field. But it's Lance who is drawing up those concepts to get those guys free. He understands football at a level that most 20 year olds cannot even begin to process. Not even looking at his raw, God-given talents and athleticism, he understands football. A lot of the questions for players when they come out of college is: "can this guy operate in the NFL from a spread offense?" Even one of the major questions about Cam was, has he ever called plays in the huddle? Well, that didn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but it is a question. Lance not only calls the plays from the huddle, he's responsible for concepts in each phase, whether it be their hurry up offense, their red zone offense, etc.
This is where the comparison to Deshaun Watson comes in. Yes, he's a mobile QB with a massive arm that can throw the ball anywhere on the field. But it's more about how intelligent he is as a QB, understanding the flow and motion of a game better than his peers.
There are obviously negatives to his game. He's not the perfect, polished QB that Trevor is, obviously. Sometimes Trey tries to rely on his athleticism to make big plays. Whether that's heaving the ball downfield off his back foot or throwing while fading to his right (something Cam had significant problems with throughout his career), Trey will need to learn to set his feet and not rely on being more athletic than everyone because, honestly, he's not more athletic than everyone in the NFL. This also comes into play when he's running the ball. Yes, Trey is fast. Like, VERY fast. I would say he ends up running a 4.5 - 4.6 40 time. But there are times when he lowers his shoulder for a boom to truck players. And he does! At least, in the FCS he does. In the NFL, he's going to have a rough time if he tries to just bulldoze someone like Lavonte David, for example.
All-in-all, Trey is my favorite QB for us in the NFL Draft. I think he has skills that are far beyond his years. He's smart, athletic, and knows football. He doesn't rely on a spread to just dominate FCS teams with up-tempo. Instead, he can slow the game down, then just accelerate past you once you've fallen into a lull. But he does need work, and I think sitting behind Teddy for a year will give him insight into the game of football that would be invaluable. And I don't mean this negatively: Teddy could teach him how to be a pro and take what is given to you, even if that means passing for 3 or 4 yards at a time. Not every play has to be a 40 yard moon shot.
Trey is also young enough that he could be our starting QB for the next 15 years if it turned out right. Think about this: Trey won't be 21 until after the Draft. That means in a decade, he'll only be 31. That's insane.

The Prospects: Zach Wilson

Height: 6'3 (listed, though he may be a true 6'3)
Weight: 210lbs (listed, though I'm not sure how I feel about that. He could bulk up for the Draft to around 215 or 220.)
Age: 21 (will turn 22 right after before the preseason begins)
2020 Stats: 221-302/3267 yards/30 TDs/3 INTs | 65 rushes/242 yards/8TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: A much better Jimmy G
Zach Wilson is someone you've definitely heard of by this point. He has risen up the Draft boards, and, before the loss to Coastal, was rising up as a Heisman dark horse. Before this season, there was talk about Zach possibly hitting the back end of round 1, maybe even early round 2, but there were also some serious questions about his health, which I feel like we should start out with.
Zach has had shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder from an injury sustained in high school. He said that the injury would feel horrible on Mondays after games. The surgery could help clear that up, and there's obviously no signs of any injuries when he's throwing quick strikes down the field. But, however, even bigger than that is that he has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will need to be worked on. From that same interview:

Wilson, in his interview with BYU Sports Nation, added that he also has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will eventually require surgery. He said he has been limited in his workouts, including not being able to bench press, but does a lot of workouts with dumbbells and resistance bands, typical to the routine of a healthy quarterback.

Not being able to lift is a big deal, though not terrible for a QB. As long as he is doing resistance training, he should be good. There's still some chances that he won't be able to participate in the bench press workout at the Draft, which could see some teams waver on him.
What does Zach do well to make up for the injury concerns, though? Well, for one, he throws at almost every arm angle. He has the ability to lower his shoulder and throw those weird, quick strike, side-arm pitcher style throws. He can move in the pocket while throwing accurately downfield. The "Moving Parallelogram" is a hard concept for QBs to run often, because it requires great feetwork and accuracy on the move. Zach Wilson does it with ease, and does it consistently. This is where the big comparison to Jimmy G comes from. Jimmy is great at shuffling his feet, moving out into space, and getting the "Moving Parallelogram" concepts to work to his advantage.
Here's the thing with Zach Wilson versus Trey Lance in the grand scheme of things. Trey is a dominant force athletically, being able to do everything and see everything... but the knock is it's against FCS teams. Zach has been doing this against the P5 teams consistently. He's played against Washington, USC, Utah, etc., and, though he does struggle in some of those games, he still has shown that he's tough and can play through pain and injury to get the job done. That's something that Coach Rhule has expressed happiness with, especially when it came to DJackson this year. Being tough and fighting through injury is laudable.
Will Zach need to sit for a half a season/a season to prepare like Trey? Yeah, I think he will. I think that Zach needs to learn how to make progressions from an NFL offense. It's important to note here that BYU runs a variant offense, running through the spread with motion, under center, 4 right sets, etc. And while Zach's mechanics are very good, I think that he needs to learn how to be consistent against some of the top level teams from an NFL offense. Make reads out of the spread and understand coverages and concepts.
Here's a really cool video featuring Zach's family, interviewing him on toughness and how determined Zach is to succeed. One thing that I really took away from this is that Zach has taken the time to consistently work with John Beck on his mechanics, and John Beck is a great example to follow. He's someone who has taken a path through the NFL, to the CFL, and has seen a myriad of offenses come and go. That's awesome to see that he's taking it seriously, and not just saying "well, I'm the starting QB of BYU, so I've got this in the bag."

The rise and fall of Earl Thomas: A Hall of Fame career interrupted - ESPN+ Exclusive

Earl Thomas wanted to show an old friend how far he had come.
It was 2013, and a then-24-year-old Thomas patrolled the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary. The franchise was just weeks from its first Super Bowl championship, and Thomas had flown his high school coach, Texas state Hall of Famer Dan Hooks, and his wife to see the Seahawks' regular-season finale against the St. Louis Rams.
After the Seahawks breezed past the Rams, Hooks found himself at Thomas' house for dinner, surrounded by luxury. He overlooked lake waters as Nina Thomas, Earl's future wife, prepared a tender steak. After dinner, Thomas walked Hooks to his garage to check out the Lamborghini Murcielago. Hooks can't remember if the car was blue or white, but he definitely remembers the scissor doors and hand-stitched leather seats, a rare glimpse into a player he always considered a bit of an introvert.
Thomas stressed he never drove it through rain or mud.
Seven years later, Hooks wonders how Thomas -- a once-proud playmaker now unemployed after a rocky season with the Baltimore Ravens and well-publicized problems off the field -- is navigating those same conditions in his life.
"I was really surprised when he got off track like that," said Hooks, who coached Thomas at Orange-Stark High School. "As time went on, the image he represented became a little different. I don't know what happened. But he's a great kid and I wish him success."
After nearly $90 million in career earnings, seven Pro Bowls and three All-Pro selections, Thomas has played deep safety on a likely route to the Hall of Fame. But a series of bizarre events on and off the field late in his career have raised questions about a legacy coming apart at the seams, including:
He ended his Seattle career by flashing a middle finger at Pete Carroll on Sept. 30, 2018, after a leg injury and an acrimonious contract dispute.
He ended his Baltimore career with a punch, with teammates fed up with his act well before he fought safety Chuck Clark during a training camp practice on Aug. 21, 2020. Two days later, the Ravens cut him for conduct detrimental to the team.
In between, a well-publicized issue with his wife, Nina -- who was arrested April 13, 2020, for allegedly pointing a gun at Thomas over cheating suspicions, according to court records -- took the focus off football.
Now, Thomas is 31 and hopeful for one last chance to anchor a secondary. All season, the free agent has worked out five to six days per week with Jeremy Hills, a former University of Texas teammate who trains many NFL athletes out of Austin.
"He feels like he has so much more to prove," Hills said. "He'll show up ready whenever he gets the call."
Blake Gideon, a former University of Texas safety who shared the defensive backfield with Thomas, backs up that claim, saying Thomas conveyed in recent text messages that he "understands the position he's in and is eager" to correct it with another chance.
Many former teammates and coaches said the news stories about Thomas, who didn't respond to multiple attempts by ESPN to reach him, don't match the person they know: a quiet but loyal individual who doesn't trust others easily but cares deeply once walls are broken, with a rare football focus that some mistake for iciness.
That last part complicated Thomas' status in multiple locker rooms. His relentless pursuit of greatness could create a gulf that several former teammates didn't want to discuss on the record out of respect for Thomas' career.
As one longtime Seahawk put it, Thomas was "a lot like Kobe" in his competitive drive. Kobe Bryant evolved and was beloved when he retired in 2016. Will Thomas get his goodbye, or has the game said it for him?
Faith and family in Orange, Texas Just about everything a young Thomas did felt ordained.
His interest in music became not just a hobby, but a vessel for an entire church body, playing the drums and organ in the Sunday service band in Orange, Texas.
A quiet boy with a matching tie and vest helped get the congregation at Sixth Street Community Church off their seats. Sixth Street, located in Orange's east side -- which the church's Facebook page calls "devil's territory" because of crime and drugs in the area -- spread joy from a brown-brick building. Thomas' grandfather, Earl V. Thomas Sr., was the founding pastor, and uncle Anthony D. Thomas has taken over.
Raymond Richard, Thomas' teammate at Orange-Stark, said the boys were in church three nights per week, plus weekends. Services were "filled with the Holy Ghost -- shouting and spirits moving," he said, and though Thomas wasn't the animated type, he took pride in helping others celebrate God through music.
"Every instrument, he could play. He was just gifted like that," Richard said. "I think he just learned how to play by being around it."
Growing up in Orange -- nicknamed "Fruit City," sitting on the border of Texas and Louisiana with a population of about 11,000 -- Thomas cut grass with his dad on weekends. Locals knew Thomas as Debbie Thomas' "miracle baby," because doctors told her, a cancer survivor, she couldn't have kids. Instead, "God blessed her with a millionaire," Richard said.
Thomas became arguably Orange's best player since former Dallas Cowboy All-Pro cornerback Kevin Smith in the '80s. Thomas was a hybrid cornerback-running back who hated to come off the field. No tests, on the field or standardized, would stop his ascension.
High school teammate Depauldrick Garrett recalls Thomas' struggling with his SAT scores to qualify for the University of Texas. Before his last attempt at qualifying, Thomas told him on site, "If I pass this score, 'I'm going to the league.'"
"His focus level was just different," Garrett said. "He wanted to make a name for Orange, and he learned the value of hard work from his family."
Early signs of brilliance as a Longhorn In 2008, Gideon earned Texas' starting-safety role alongside Thomas, who for weeks hadn't said more than two words to him. So Gideon approached Thomas after a practice and asked if he had a problem.
"He said, 'Man, to be honest, where I come from, you're a white boy with a buzz cut, so I fill in the blank on what you think about me,'" Gideon recalled Thomas saying. "I told him, 'Hey, bro, that's not me. I grew up in a different part of the state, but I see how you play and how you work hard and I love you for that. I promise you, I want to play next to you and help you get where you want to be.
"From that point, we really trusted one another."
Thomas' hometown is rich in football tradition but familiar with racial tension, which ESPN highlighted in a 2017 feature on Thomas' roots. A 1993 Texas Monthly story highlighted the segregation problems in nearby Vidor. In 2016, a Bridge City High School official issued a public apology after two of its football players posted a meme of a West Orange-Stark player who was Black and a message including the N-word.
Richard believes racism isn't discernibly worse in Orange; it's everywhere.
"You've got a group that's always trying to keep things turned up in every town," said Cornel Thompson, a longtime football coach and West Orange-Stark's athletic director. "In Orange here, the thing that pulls everything together is football."
And the field was never a problem for Thomas, who proved undeniable from the moment he stepped onto the UT campus.
He wasn't afraid to let people know, either. Lamarr Houston, a UT teammate and eight-year NFL veteran with the then-Oakland Raiders and Chicago Bears, remembers Thomas, as a redshirt freshman, declaring in the locker room that he would start the following year.
Houston brushed him off with a, "Yeah, yeah, we'll see."
"We kind of got into it -- he was really serious," Houston said. "He was letting everybody know."
Colt McCoy -- the Texas QB in 2008 -- was struck by how a shy redshirt freshman would play an organ at a local church on Sundays, sometimes missing an involuntary workout as a result, then become a dominant force during nighttime 7-on-7 workouts in the summer. Thomas begged McCoy, who had the keys to the field gates, to continue one-on-one sessions with him covering McCoy's receivers, over and over, until midnight.
"He was going to be the best and nothing was going to get in his way," said McCoy, an 11-year NFL veteran now with the New York Giants.
Thomas backed up that confidence with raw talent, with some teammates calling him "Earl the Squirrel" because of elite quickness that led to 10 interceptions in two seasons.
Will Muschamp, Texas' defensive coordinator from 2008 to 2010, remembers doing double-takes watching practice film because of the extra reps Thomas took, the ground he constantly covered.
Muschamp was cleaning his house during the early months of the pandemic when his youngest son, Whit, came across a picture he drew years back of his favorite Longhorn, Thomas. Muschamp snapped a picture and texted it to Thomas, who replied: "Coach, that's awesome."
"As productive a football player I've ever been around," said Muschamp, a head coach at Florida and South Carolina over the past decade.
Seattle was a perfect fit -- until suddenly it wasn't Man, he had a different burst.
That was the prevailing theme from Seattle coaches after the first practices with Thomas, a first-round pick in 2010. Coaches measured safety speed by how one tracked the "red lines" -- numbers to numbers -- and no one owned the red lines like Thomas did.
New coach Pete Carroll needed a catalyst.
"We started constructing a defense around a middle-field safety, and that's what he was," said Rocky Seto, a longtime Seattle defensive assistant who left the profession a few years ago for Christian ministry. "He had a knack for getting the ball, and his range was phenomenal."
Seattle's personnel staff followed the Thomas pick with a pair of fifth-round selections -- hard-hitting safety Kam Chancellor (2010) and lanky corner Richard Sherman (2011) -- for a defensive foundation to fuel championship runs
Thomas was different in every way, eschewing the role of vocal leader for a get-like-me mentality that some teammates couldn't reach. One Seattle coach recalled Thomas chiding teammates for doing an extra film session because he assumed everyone already did that like him.
The work ethic reached maniacal levels. Multiple people interviewed for this story remember Thomas leaving his daughter's birthday party early to go watch film in another room. Former Seahawks corner DeShawn Shead was there for that moment. He was also there when Thomas angrily confronted defensive linemen for not carrying out assignments with intensity during a walk-through.
Thomas would balance contentious moments with invites for teammates to watch "Thursday Night Football" and play video games at his house.
"We know each other's family -- wives, kids, and on the field, we were there for each other," Shead said of Seattle's secondary.
Thomas' hero was Ed Reed, and Thomas wanted to "surpass Reed and beat him by a mile" in career accomplishments, said Kris Richard, Seattle's former defensive backs coach and defensive coordinator.
Thomas hasn't quite matched Reed's 64 interceptions, but Thomas' 30 is tops among safeties this past decade, with Sherman leading the way among active players, with 35. Chancellor was a generational hitter, and Sherman could erase the top receiver, but Thomas' versatility scared opposing coaches. His freelance moves were calculated, almost always based on film tips. Richard recalls a moment when a young Thomas sniffed out a toss play for Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, put his foot in the ground and "leveled him out of bounds."
Richard had to manage a position room with three greats, which he admits meant "sparks would fly" with emotion on occasion.
One team source said Thomas had multiple heated confrontations with coaches, though Richard said he doesn't recall that, only a player of few words but much action.
"He wanted to be the greatest safety to ever play," Richard said. "For my entirety coaching him, he was always the glaring example of what to do and how to practice, the epitome of excellence."
That football immersion made him unapproachable at times. If someone isn't helping Thomas connect on the field, a team source said, then "he's an island."
But Seattle was the ideal place for a "keeps to himself" guy such as Thomas, Seto said. Seattle is unapologetically messy when it comes to players; coaches get to know them as people, business be damned, and if that muddles contract negotiations, at least players can't say the team doesn't care. Carroll is skilled at coalescing an amalgam of personalities and embracing differences. Seto had multiple talks with Thomas about the Bible and his relationship with Jesus Christ.
"He came in as a 19-year-old guy, almost out of high school, and we saw him in that way, nurtured him," Seto said. "If there were any quirks, we learned to appreciate that part of him. We all kind of came up together."
By 2018, Thomas was 29 and found himself on that island without two trusted anchors. Chancellor retired because of neck injuries, and Sherman was released after tearing his Achilles tendon. Both played roles in corralling Thomas when he appeared distant or indifferent.
Without them, Thomas appeared increasingly irritated to be in Seattle. Public demands for an extension or a trade before the 2018 season were unsuccessful, and as trainers carted Thomas off the field in Arizona in Week 4 -- with his lower left leg fractured, and his middle finger pointed to the Glendale sky -- one Seahawks source described the moment as "numbing," a finality to a relationship that felt over much earlier. People from Orange considered the gesture uncharacteristic of the church-organ-playing football player they knew.
Sherman declined to comment for this story through the 49ers, adding that he would talk only if Thomas talks; efforts to reach Chancellor were unsuccessful. The Seahawks did not make Carroll and general manager John Schneider available for this story.
"They were pillars who knew they could lean on each other," said Richard of Thomas and the Legion of Boom. "When you remove those pillars from his life, that affects you."
From Orange, Hooks sensed Thomas' desire to return home fueled unhappiness in Seattle.
"He wanted to go to Dallas, and when that didn't happen, maybe that changed things for him," Hooks said.
Why it didn't work with the Ravens The Baltimore Ravens are among the league's best at finding bargain contracts and developing draft picks into tough-minded players, which only fueled curiosity when then-new general manager Eric DeCosta gave Thomas a four-year, $55 million contract with $32 million in guarantees in March 2019.
Thomas, two months from age 30 at the time, was believed to have a one-year deal on the table from Kansas City, but his market wasn't exactly booming. The Ravens had moved on from Eric Weddle and, without a viable replacement in the system, figured Thomas' pedigree and range could strengthen the secondary against the Odell Beckhams of the AFC North.
The signing felt rushed -- and proved unsettling nearly as fast.
Within the first month of game action, Thomas initiated a heated argument with Brandon Williams over the defensive tackle's availability against the Cleveland Browns. Thomas' unreliability became a broader issue, as ESPN's Jamison Hensley reported, once he didn't show up for meetings following the bye after a Week 7 matchup with the Seahawks.
According to a report in The Athletic, Thomas took a private jet to Las Vegas straight from the game in Seattle instead of returning to Baltimore with the Ravens. Thomas was fined repeatedly for his indifference to game prep.
"It's one of the all-time mysteries why he didn't work in here, because it seemed on paper like he'd be the perfect Raven," said a team source. "This is a good locker room, but it didn't fit from the beginning."
Peak Thomas no longer showed on the game film from the 2019 season, but he still produced 47 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and two interceptions.
The team's handling of the fight with Clark in 2020 showed just how many strikes Thomas had used up. Thomas was gone within two days of punching Clark during a Friday training camp practice over a blown coverage, with the team essentially paying out $22 million for one season of work.
Coach John Harbaugh consulted prominent Ravens, who believed it was time to cut ties. After Thomas' release, the team declined to provide specifics publicly and privately, eager to move on despite owing him $10 million in guarantees in 2021, which is currently being sorted out by an NFLPA grievance.
Without making excuses for Thomas, several former Seahawks acknowledge that leaving Seattle's locker room is an adjustment for veterans. Several former and current Seahawks brought this up when discussing Thomas' problems. It's not that players can't be successful elsewhere -- Sherman became an All-Pro with San Francisco -- it's that they can take the culture for granted.
Outside linebacker Bruce Irvin has been vocal about this. He left Seattle in 2016 free agency and, after 30 sacks in five seasons elsewhere, he returned to the Seahawks because he missed the nuances -- how the team traveled, practiced and took care of older players.
"Seattle has energy, a positive environment, and they tailor a lot of their defense and offense to the players," Shead said. "It can be very different compared to the rest of the league. For some, when you got to other teams, it just gets to them."
Thomas' football career started to spiral as his personal life suffered in the public eye.
The Ravens were shocked by the April 13 incident in Austin, which resulted in Nina Thomas' arrest for first-degree felony burglary of a residence with intent to commit aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
The details alleged in Travis County magistrate court records were jarring:
After finding Earl Thomas and his brother, Seth, in separate bedrooms of a rental home with separate women, Nina placed Earl's 9mm Beretta less than a foot away from her husband's head, with the safety disengaged and her finger on the trigger, all of which an officer viewed on cellphone video footage. Nina, accompanied by two women to help confront Thomas, told police she intended to scare Thomas but was unaware of a round in the chamber. Earl, who was not arrested, tussled for the gun, but police showed up at 3:41 a.m. with Nina allegedly chasing Earl with a knife. Thomas posted a since-deleted video urging people to pray instead of gossip, as "stuff like this happens."
Jonathan Goins, Nina's lawyer, told ESPN that Nina and Earl -- high school sweethearts who married in 2016 and have three children -- are reconciling.
"They are working on their marriage and doing what they have to do to make sure their three children are growing up in the best environment possible," Goins said.
Goins said he is expecting a dismissal of the case, which is currently being handled by the district attorney's office. He is working closely with Carl A. Moore, Earl Thomas' attorney, and Thomas has fully cooperated in the process.
Will Thomas get another chance? As a concerned friend, Gideon has sent encouraging texts to Thomas in recent months. He figured Thomas felt like the world was coming down on him, so he simply let him know he loved him. They had pleasant exchanges that Gideon would prefer to keep private.
"A lot of people were surprised with the issues that came to light because that was never him," Gideon said. "I don't see that as not having a great relationship with teammates in the locker room. The stuff back in Austin with his brother, that wasn't him."
According to Hills, his former teammate and trainer, Thomas has immersed himself in routine, working on his personal life and football craft without any guarantees of his career resuming.
Most days, Thomas wakes up early, jogs a mile to get loose, goes through a traditional weightlifting session (he needs to squat with the barbell across the back -- no body-weight sessions here), then it's on to conditioning and two-man offensive work, Hills said.
Hills classifies Thomas as being in "damn good shape," with speed of the NFL game the only thing they can't truly replicate in workouts. But when Hills can't find Thomas, he usually knows why.
"For the first time in a while, he has more time to be a dad," Hills said. "If he's not with me, he's probably in a bouncy house somewhere."
Family photos comprise much of Thomas' social media fare.
Thomas also has several posts that seem to promote the grand opening of Area 29 in Houston, which, according to the company's Instagram page, is the "hottest new international strip club featuring #1 dancers." Twenty-nine is Thomas' famous jersey number. ESPN left a message for a club official for comment on Thomas' involvement.
The Houston Texans appeared ready to sign Thomas in late September but backed away over concerns from the locker room, according to reporting by CBS Sports.
The Dallas Cowboys desperately needed secondary help yet didn't aggressively pursue Thomas. League sources said they believe the Cowboys once entertained signing Thomas for the league minimum, but those discussions never went very far.
Football can be cruel to aging veterans hoping to gracefully bow out. For every John Elway or Peyton Manning, there are dozens forced into retirement due to declining play.
But that's tough for Thomas, McCoy said, because of what he still can give.
"It's hard for anybody when someone tells you you can't play anymore -- it's even harder if you think you still can," McCoy said. "Hard thing to move on from. With Earl, I don't think that's what's going on. He can still play."
Richard also believes Thomas has "something left in the tank," because instincts and preparation will guide him.
Either way, a legacy awaits him in Orange, where for years he conducted a massive youth football camp. Providing a free camp to 1,000-plus kids was liberating for Thomas, who had to shake his hesitancy to speak publicly as a front-facing figure.
Thomas brought NFL peers to town and treated Orange "like Robin Hood" when it came to generosity for kids and family friends, said Derrick Scott, a former Texas strength coach who helps run the camp, which COVID-19 derailed in 2020.
"I see all this as Earl Thomas growing into the man he's going to be. I really believe he'll prevail," Scott said. "I believe his heart is in the right place. Things happen in life. I've seen his resiliency."
If Thomas doesn't get another NFL down, he has disciples to carry on his tradition -- and fiercely protect his legacy.
Any time Tennessee Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro breaks on a pass, he hopes his technique and angle to the ball would make Thomas proud.
The former UT teammate and friend can't be told any differently: Thomas revolutionized the free safety position because of his sideline-to-sideline range and anticipation.
That's why Thomas' current predicament deeply hurts him.
"Hall of Fame players like him should be able to go out on their own terms," Vaccaro said.

Tips, tricks & anything else that has helped you become a more profitable bettor?

NFL midseason awards

https://preview.redd.it/lxc5ahmpmhx51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=96377ee44f927e18fd1c787f45bb5d8e093ad3dc
We have made it through the first eight weeks of the 2020 season and it’s time to hand out some trophies (not literally of course, since we have to wait until the year is over). I already did this when I predicted the entire season about a week before we kicked things off and a lot of the candidates I mentioned back then, you will here again, but at the same time, some guys have kind of come out of nowhere. For some of these categories, three names were enough, while for a few others I mentioned two more notables. So who have been my MVP, Defensive Player and Coach of the Year, among others, for the first half of the season? Plus, at the bottom I added my All-Pro teams at this point.
Also make sure to check out my detailed recap of NFL week eight.

Most Valuable Player:

I think three candidates have kind of separated themselves from the rest of the pack in this MVP discussion and the guy I have at the top has been there all season long, because no other player has been more valuable to his team and their success.

https://preview.redd.it/lghw4cpxmhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0ae49df242209b2cf48fe6053ae79d306861177

1. Russell Wilson
I have always said Wilson is one of the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL and that the only thing holding him back from quite putting up the same numbers other MVP candidates have produced is his own coaching staff and the conservative he plays in. Well, this year Brian Schottenheimer & company have finally listened to Seahawks fans screaming to “let Russ cook” and he has been smoking hot. Russ is top three in completion percentage (71.5%) and yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per game (307.3), leads NFL with a passer rating of 120.8 and 26 touchdown passes, which makes up for more than one TD every 10th attempt – also an NFL-best mark. And the crazy part is that his team has needed him to be that explosive, since Seattle’s defense has given up an average of 460.9 yards per game – easily the most of any team in the league. The Seahawks themselves are scoring an NFL-best 34.3 points per game and their season-low(!) 27 points came in a matchup, where he led one of his two game-winning drives on the season (versus Minnesota). He is also the only quarterback with multiple starts to not have lost a fumble all season long. The only blemish on Wilson’s resume and the Hawks lone loss came at Arizona in a Sunday Night game, where their quarterback threw three of his six interceptions on the year and that was his only performance that he had a passer rating below 100 in. However in that game, he lit up the Cardinals with the deep ball and made some incredible plays throughout the night. And if you break down the three picks he threw, two of them came by defenders who had to cover a ton of ground and no quarterback would have anticipated them to even be a factor, while on that third one D.K. slowed down for a back-shoulder throw The Seahawks put 35 points on the Patriots, 31 against the Dolphins number-one scoring defense and just now 37 against San Francisco – and it could easily been more if the came wasn’t completely out of hand in the fourth quarter.

2. Patrick Mahomes
I know Mahomes has five TD passes less than Russ despite having played one more game, but he also only has one interception on the year – and that one came when he pushed it downfield on a 4th & long towards the end of the Chiefs’ only loss on the season. He is also behind only Wilson in quarterback rating (115.0) and first in QBR (86.8), with the latter thanks to what he has done taking off when nothing is there, which he has really gotten great at once he sees 2-man or other favorable situations. Of the 34 times he has taken off, nine have resulted in first downs and he finished in the end-zone twice. Of course this is still about Mahomes and Kansas City trashing opposing teams with all those weapons in the passing game. With defenses playing a lot more soft coverage against the Chiefs, Mahomes has taken advantage underneath with those short completions, while still finding ways to allow his receivers to uncover on secondary routes and getting the ball to them from all different angles. So his intended air yards may not be overly impressive, because of all the screens and stuff they draw up, and he might “only” be sixth in yards per attempt, but Pat is still tied for first with 31 passes of 20+ yards. He absolutely picked apart the Ravens defense in that huge Monday Night showdown, which tried every coverage and blitz package imaginable and the quarterback had an answer for all of them, completing some throws nobody in the league could make. The Chiefs’ season-low in points (23) came at the Chargers, when he certainly didn’t start out great, but still found a way to lead a comeback and win in overtime. And even in their only loss of the season against the Raiders, it was the opposing offense converting a sneak on fourth down, that denied Mahomes a chance to finish their late push.

3. Aaron Rodgers
When you look at Rodgers’ most impressive statistic for his career it is his ridiculous touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.47, which is a full point better than the next-closest guy (Russell Wilson) and twice as good as anybody that hasn’t played in the 2010’s. Well, right now he has the second-best rate for this season, behind only Patrick Mahomes at 20-2, and those two picks came in his only bad game at Tampa Bay. I’m not going to sugercoat this in any way – after going up 10-0 and once that pass-rush from the Bucs was unleashed, he could not get anything going. With that being said, he has been phenomenal in the six other contests, having throw less than 3 TDs in only of them and his lowest QB rating being at 107.6, with both of those thing coming against Detroit in week two, when the Packers just didn’t need him to crazy and still put up 42 points, as Aaron Jones got loose on multiple occasions. And Rodgers had not fumbled until that very last play we saw from him, as he was stripped from behind while trying to launch a Hail Mary at the end of the Vikings game. By the way, he was incredible in that loss as well, as the only two times the offense was stopped, Equanimeous St. Brown had consecutive passes go off his hands and then the refs for no apparent reason picked up the flag on a blatant pass interference against Robert Tonyan inside the red-zone. Rodgers leads the league with seven completions of 40+ yards and right now Drew Lock is the only starter in the league with a higher mark in yards beyond the sticks (0.9) – which when you look at the rest of the numbers isn’t always an endorsement for the second-year QB, as Lock has three more INTs on 100 less attempts. And outside of Davante Adams – who has missed some time – Rodgers hasn’t really been able to rely on any of his receivers, as they are tied for the most passes dropped at 18, even though the other two QBs with that number have played one more game than Green Bay.

Notables: Josh Allen & Tom Brady

Offensive Player of the Year:

Of course, you could name the same three candidates from the MVP section here, but I tried to mix things up a little and give you three other names worthy of the award. And that includes only one quarterback.

https://preview.redd.it/7bjpxm24nhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e2bb387c610fbc6d543f166a0582537bfc07ba6

1. Alvin Kamara
I know that this award is often given to quarterbacks as well and it looks odd that Kamara is 16th in the league in rushing (431 yards), but he is averaging five yards per carry and he is also second to only DeAndre Hopkins among all players with 55 catches for an additional 556 yards through the air – so just over 10 yards per grab. Right now he is on pace for 2256 scrimmage yards on right around 20 touches a week, while he would also easily break the NFL record for receiving yards for a running back (1271 over 1191 from Charley Taylor in 1966). And he leads the league not only in scrimmage yards but also percentage of his offense’s yardage (36.5%), while being tied for first with 12 plays of 20+ yards on the season. While he has caught a couple of key wheel routes and can win as a downfield receiver, so far 94.5(!) percent of his receiving yards have come after the catch, constantly bailing out his quarterback by making something happen after checkdowns and ripping off big gains in the screen game. I mean against the Packers he caught 13 of 14 targets for 139 yards and he was the only reason they were in that game in the first place. The explosiveness, the contact balance and the ability get six or seven yards when there should be only three is unmatched. Kamara has scored reached the end-zone seven times and his only fumble, he recovered himself again. He is by far the best player on this Saints offense and the team overall and in the absence of Michael Thomas, he has been asked to shoulder the load for them. Since his lowest output in the season-opener, Kamara has not been held under 119 scrimmage yards in any other week.

2. Kyler Murray
While Murray is only 16th among current starters in passing yards per game, only Russell Wilson and by about half a yard Justin Herbert have put up more combined passing and rushing yards at 326.3 a week. Right now, only Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan have been responsible for more combined first downs and touchdowns, and those two have played a full matchup more than the Cardinals and both just won their second games of the season, while Kyler is doing it in service of a 5-2 team, which outside of his own production has averaged less than 100 rushing yards on a weekly basis. As a runner, he leads all NFL players (with double-digit carries) in yards per attempt at 6.7 and 35 of his 65 carries led to first downs or touchdowns (seven TDs). I would not call Arizona’s passing game overly explosive, as Kyler is barely in the top 20 in yards per attempt (7.3), 20+ yard throws (21) and average yards to the sticks (-0.9), but a lot of that has to do with what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do with his Air Raid-based offense, while his QB is tied for second with six throws of 40+ yards and already has an 80-yarder on his resume. Plus, with that guy at the helm, they have the potential to get as hot as pretty much any team out there. Kyler had one really bad game against the Lions, in which Detroit used a lot of different coverages that had them all over the Cardinals route patterns, but #1 has been outstanding the rest of the year and I don’t come away from a lot of games thinking that a lot of his production was served up by the play-calling. I said a couple of weeks that Deshaun Watson is the most elusive quarterback in the league, but nobody is quicker at evading defenders and keeping himself upright. We all love Russell Wilson and his ability to extend plays, but just compare these numbers – Russ has been pressured 79 times and he’s been hit or sacked on 50 of those, Kyler on the other has been pressured 44 times (significantly less due to more of a horizontal passing attack), but he’s only been sacked nine times and taken five more hits (14 total). And Kyler already outdueled Russ on Sunday Night of week seven.

3. Derrick Henry
King Henry is once again holding the crown for the league’s rushing leader at this moment. His 775 rushing yards are 123 more than any other player in the league, and while that is in correlation with handling the most carries of all RBs, he still averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, despite being asked to grind away games for the Titans. Right around 30 percent of his touches has resulted in a first down or touchdown (43 total first downs and eight TDs) and about 58 percent of his total yardage has come after contact. Nobody wants to tackle King Henry, because he can plow through 300-pounder defensive linemen at the point of attack and throw DBs around like ragdolls, when he gets around the edge (looking at you, Josh Norman), but at the same time, once he gets rolling, he is as fast as any player on the field, which we saw already when he ripped of an NFL-long 94-yarder against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. The difference between Henry and some of the other franchise backs is that he doesn’t contribute a whole lot in the passing game outside of a few screens (10 catches for 81 yards), but nobody takes on a bigger load than this guy and he really sets the table for everything the Titans do, with the heavy play-action and bootlegs. Usually this guy really starts rolling over the second half of the season, but he has been dominant right from the start this year. When you look at the three games Henry didn’t put 112+ yards on the ground, in two of them the opposing defense totally sold out against the run and Ryan Tannehill completed 75 percent of his passes with seven TDs and no picks, while the team scored 33 and 42 points respectively, and the other one came against the Steelers’ dominant defensive front. On the other hand, he also has the most scrimmage yards in a game all season, when he destroyed the Texans for 264 yards and took over that one overtime drive, to win it.

Notables: The three MVP candidates

Defensive Player of the Year:

I think there is pretty clear top three in this one as well and I can honestly see an argument for each one of them to be the pick, but I have stuck my selection (and bet) of a guy I believed would come back even hungrier in 2020.

https://preview.redd.it/jztbsyebnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d42b8d0551d7a5a382c4c2f8cec7ef1a3f506b9

1. Myles Garrett
This was my preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year and similar to Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign, I have been riding this all season long. Myles Garrett is tied for a league-high nine sacks and only two players have hit the opposing quarterback more overall than him. The only two games he didn’t record a sack (the season-opener at Baltimore and this past week against the Raiders), the opposing team ran the ball on 56 and 65 percent respectively and somehow all those sacks he has put up have come in big moments – a strip on Joe Burrow to set up the offense at the Bengals 1-yard line after they were just stopped on fourth down in an eight-point game, another against Washington after the Browns finally extended the lead to more than one score, stripping Dak Prescott when the game was tied at 14 and set off a 27-0 run, setting the offense up in field goal range for their first points in the rematch with Cincinnati and while it won’t be found on the stats sheet, he also directly forced a safety on a throw-away by Philip Rivers to make it a two-score game against the Colts. The only other player that has forced four fumbles just like Myles is Ravens DB Marlon Humphrey, who has become a Peanut Punch specialist – and Garrett has also recovered a couple of those himself, with both of them directly setting up touchdown for the offense from short distance. Plus, he is excellent run-defender, who can yank blockers to the side and makes tackles around the line scrimmage, with only one miss on the season. Myles has grown so much with his technique as a pass-rusher, while obviously having that incredible combination of length and athleticism, but also might have gotten “looser” in his movement and how he can torque his body different ways. And the Browns are now using him as a mismatch against guards on passing downs quite a bit.

2. Aaron Donald
Just like he has been the last five years or so, Aaron Donald is right up there with the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and I would not be surprised at all if he won his third trophy at the end of the season. Donald is tied with Myles Garrett for the league-lead in sacks at nine and he is top five in total pressures (22) and QB hits (13), despite offensive lines sliding his way constantly. We have literally seen this man get triple-teamed and lift All-Pro offensive linemen off their feet, but only T.J. Watt has a higher pass-rush win percentage according to Pro Football Focus (25%). This guy is the only player with a four-sack performance this season and not only does he obviously contribute in a major way himself, but because of the way he gives his teammates one-on-one’s consistently, his Rams only have three other teams in front of them in terms of sacks as unit (26), despite not having a lot of names that you would recognize, outside a questionable former first-rounder in Leonard Floyd. And I just mentioned the only two players with more forced fumbles than Donald (Garrett and Humphrey), who has three himself. He has also recorded seven tackles for loss and only missed one of his 26 tackling attempts. The crazy part with his game is that for all the numbers you can actually see, there’s about twice as many plays he makes that don’t show up anywhere in the records. The only reason I don’t have him at number one is that he has four games without a full sack and that Garrett has been a little more consistent at coming up with those real game-changing plays. Still, AD is clearly right up there.

3. T.J. Watt
And then this guy is as complete an edge defender as we have in the league. Watt can set the edge at the point of attack, he can chase ball-carriers down from behind as the unblocked man at the line and this past Sunday against Baltimore, we saw him take both guys at times on those read-option plays. Of his 25 tackles on the season, 12 have resulted in lost yardage, which is tied with teammate Vince Williams for a league-high. As a pass-rusher, Watt is “only” tied for fourth with 6.5 sacks, but his 21 hits on opposing QBs is four more than any other player in the league and the 27 total pressure are three more than the next-closest guy as well, while PFF has him tagged with the highest pass-rush win rate in correlation with that (27%). And he headlines the most destructive pass-rush in the league, as the Steelers defense leads the league with 30 sacks and easily has the highest pressure percentage of any unit out there at a whopping 35.0 percent. Watt has also batted down three passes and picked one off. He can do your classic flat drops or carry guys out of the backfield at times, but he can also stand up and move around the line to blitz from different angles or act as a spy at times. He surprisingly has yet to force a fumble this season, but I can remember right now on the very first play he was on the field against the Titans, a good 20 quarterbacks would have lost the ball in that moment with Watt swiping at it, and since he led the league in that category last season, I have no doubt he will rack up a few of those FFs still.

Offensive Rookie of the Year:

This award has two quarterbacks battling it out at the top right now, with one young star receivers and a couple of running backs – one picked in the first round and the other going undrafted – who are also in the running.

https://preview.redd.it/s59hxqbhnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=1367e2c355593e297cd3e85ba8c94c1f6a3ee3f6

1. Justin Herbert
I get that coaches always try to protect their young quarterbacks and want to give them time to learn from the sidelines, but I hope everybody gets that Herbert and Tyrod Taylor aren’t even close to each other. And I have always liked Tyrod as a bridge-starter or game-manager type, but this rookie QB has taken this offense to a completely different level. When you just look at the schedule, you see that the two QBs have the same amount of wins on the season (only one for Herbert against the Jaguars), but in the season-opener the Chargers only put up 16 points against the Bengals, who have given up 28.2 per week from that point on, and L.A. has scored 27.2 points a game since then. It is not Herbert’s fault that his defense has let him down in the second half of games and allowed big comebacks. He took Patrick Mahomes & company to overtime, had his team up 24-7 against the Bucs before a fumble a minute until halftime started turning things around, he outplayed Drew Brees at the Superdome and was inches away in overtime from pulling off a game-tying or -winning drives and before the Bolts defense allowed an epic collapse last Sunday, they were dominating the Broncos 24-3 midway through the third quarter. The way Herbert has opened up the offense with the deep ball is incredible, with two 70+ TDs on the resume already, and he makes the whole field available, after they were very limited before. Among current starters, Herbert is third in passing yards per game (303.3) and second in combined touchdowns per game (3.0), while also being top ten in completion percentage, yards per attempt, quarterback rating and QBR. He is on pace to throw for 4550 yards and 38 touchdowns to go with about 350 rushing yards and five more TDs on the ground, over the course of a 15-game season. Those numbers would shatter all rookie records.

2. Joe Burrow
No other team has thrown the ball more than the Bengals (330 pass attempts) and their quarterback leads the league with 221 completions on the season (67% completion percentage). With 11 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, that ratio doesn’t look overly impressive, but he has set up a lot of short rushing TDs, while Cincinnati barely cracks 100 rushing yards per game as a team and only one other squad averages less yards per carry (3.7). Until this past weekend, Burrow was tied with Carson Wentz for the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league, but thanks to a non-existent pass-rush for the Titans, in large part due to the spread-based passing attack the Bengals bring to the table, a clean week has the Bengals QB at “only” 28 sacks so far. However, he has been under the fire all season long, being tied for third with 79 total pressures, despite only eight quarterbacks spending less time in the pocket. And Burrow has yet to complete less than 60 percent of his passes in any game. I know the Bengals were blown out in that one Ravens game, but do we realize that was their only loss by more than one score? They tied the Eagles in a game where Burrow was sacked eight times and hit every other snap, they scored 30+ in their two matchups with the Browns, they were up 21-0 against the Colts in the second quarter and just this past Sunday they beat the recently 5-1 Titans by double-digits. And I would argue their rookie quarterback is by far the biggest reason for it. They are already guaranteed a better record this year than last season, as we are halfway through the season – and they are getting better every week. This guy is the future in Cincinnati. Now they just need to protect him and get that defense going.

3. Justin Jefferson
I know that Odell Beckham Jr. was the only wide receiver to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year in the last ten years and I wouldn’t put anybody on the same level as that historic season, but since then this is the most impressive start we have seen for a rookie receiver. Through seven games, Jefferson has caught 31 of his 40 targets for 563 yards and three touchdowns. That puts him 12th among all receivers in yards per game, while having recorded a league-high 14.1 yards per target and 22 of his 31 grabs has resulted in a fresh set of downs. After a rather slow start, with five catches for 70 yards through the first two weeks, Jefferson came onto the scene with 71-yarder against the Titans and now already has three games of 100+ receiving yards, while only having played 74 percent of the snaps on the season. Jefferson has only dropped one pass and not fumbled once, while Kirk Cousins when targeting the rookie receiver, has a passer rating of over 100 despite having thrown four picks and I wouldn’t put a single one of those on the receiver definitely, as on a couple of them there was a linebacker dropping underneath a deep crosser that Cousins stared down the whole way, a badly underthrown pass into a tight window and on another one he and the rookie wideout clearly weren’t on the same page in terms of the route he was supposed to run. Through eight weeks, Jefferson is Pro Football Focus has the second-highest grade among all NFL receivers. I have always been a fan of Adam Thielen and he is Cousins’ favorite target, but to determine who opposing teams believe is more dangerous, all I have to do is watch the Packers put Jaire Alexander on the first-year man for almost the whole game last week.

Notables: James Robinson & Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

For the defensive side of the ball, this rookie selection was a little tougher, because there are a few guys that have filled the stat sheet across the board, but you don’t have those typical front-runners with a lot of sacks or interceptions, which usually take home the honors.

https://preview.redd.it/6feckarlnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=99ff1c8f00a81987ead19327f1465ccee3e50f17

1. Antoine Winfield Jr.
When I look at who I believe is the best pro player among all defensive rookies already, I would say this is the name that comes to mind. Tampa Bay’s defensive scheme isn’t simple. They ran a lot of different coverages, they can blitz anybody and there are a lot of rules that you have to understand as a member of that unit. Winfield has come in and looked him he belonged from the first time he touched the field. The rookie safety has played 515 of 522 snaps on defense and he shows up quite a bit in the box score. He has recorded 31 solo tackles and only two misses all season long, showing off what a dependable tackler he is in space. He has intercepted a passe and broken up four more, plus he has forced fumble. And call it P.I. or not, he denied a two-point conversion to potentially tie the game this past Monday Night against the Giants. To go with that, he has asked to blitz 29 times in Todd Bowles’ pressure-heavy scheme, resulting in two sacks and three extra hits on the quarterbacks. What made me a big fan of Winfield coming out of Minnesota was the versatility he presents and the fact he played so much bigger than his size would indicate. The Bucs coaching staff has utilized a lot around the line of scrimmage a lot and I love how he drives on routes in quarters coverage. He gas been “credited” with giving up just over 200 yards and two touchdowns, to go with a passer rating of 114.4 in coverage, but I think about half of that production came on two plays in the Chargers game, once with him ending up as the closest defender on a deep bomb, when the other safety should have actually opened up and then on a scramble drill play, where Keenan Allen uncovered late against him.

2. Patrick Queen
Baltimore has a rich tradition of middle linebackers, but not so much when it comes to LSU players, with Ozzie Newsome as an Alabama alumn not having drafted a single Tigers player in over 20 years as the Ravens GM. This year, with Eric DeCosta calling the shots, they wanted to bring in a dynamic player to put in the middle of their defense and when Patrick Queen surprisingly was still on the board when they were making their first-round pick this past April, it didn’t matter which college he came from. Queen was immediately put in the starting lineup and he has been filling up the stat sheet from the start. In seven games, he has recorded 48 combined tackles, four of them for loss, two sacks to go with five more QB hits, two fumbles forced and recovered, including a long scoop-and-score. His speed at the second level to string guys out to the sideline or get to the quarterback on delayed blitzes has been a big reason this defense has gone to a higher level in 2020. Of course, he is still a first-year player and not perfect. Queen has already missed 11 tackles and there have been some moments where the rookie seemed a little confused. Two that come to mind right away – the Chiefs running that double-swing fake before throwing the TE screen over the middle, where they had Queen’s head spinning and then last week against the Steelers, where I’m pretty sure he should have covered tight-end Eric Ebron in man, but thought he had the back and that allowed Ebron to easily score on a shallow crosser from 18 yards out. He is learning and we have already seen moments, where he just sees it and goes, shutting down plays before they can even get going, while he obviously has a knack for the ball.

3. Jeremy Chinn
One of the small-school prospects I loved in this most recent draft was this 6’3”, 220-pound safety from Southern Illinois, who put up ridiculous numbers at the scouting combine and showed incredible potential on film. So far, he has put up 38 solo tackles – most by any rookie in the league, has intercepted one pass and broken up another five. Chinn has been all over the field, with his ability to cover ground and erase angles for the ball-carrier. One of the two or three negatives I had about him and why I had him around the top 50 and not even higher was the ability to process information post-snap, to not just have his talent take him to the ball, but also the anticipation and identification of certain keys to react quickly. I believe Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow and that entire staff has done an outstanding job of simplifying Chinn’s assignments and just letting him around and make plays. Once he sees something happening in front of him, he can get there as fast as pretty much any player in the league and the Panthers have allowed that talent to flourish. The biggest issue for him are the ten missed tackles so far, but he’ll clean that up as well. Through eight weeks, Chinn has played 96 percent of the defensive snaps and been a fixture on the punt team as well, where he had a huge first-down run against the Falcons in last week’s Thursday Night game on a fake. As he gets more comfortable in the system, I expect him to become a bigger part of the pass-rush, because his closing speed as a blitzer is just absurd.

Notables: Jaylon Johnson & Julian Blackmon

Comeback Player of the Year:

As I say every year when making my preseason picks, this is the most vague award of the list, because there are so many different ways you can look at it – players who were hurt for most/all of last season, guys who had a few off-years and then those who were out of the league altogether.

https://preview.redd.it/azaaj8wonhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b8d658e734d0fbb7dab6ce01769d86131a0227f

1. Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger is completing 67.9 percent of his passes and while he is only 25th in passing yards per game (232.6), a lot of that has to do with being part of a 7-0 team with the best defense in the league and trying to run down the clock late in games a lot of times. Big Ben has been really steady for Pittsburgh, not having completed less than 63 percent of his passes yet for a total of 15 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions, with five games that didn’t include any turnovers from him. Of those four picks, one came on a wobbling 50-50 pass, where Juju immediately called for pass interference, one came in the end-zone on the final play before halftime and another was batted up by a defensive lineman right into the hands of a linebacker. The Steelers are tied for third with converting 49.5 percent of their third downs and even though their run game is about average, they control the clock primarily with the short passing game, where their quarterback gets everybody involved. And when his team has needed him most Big Ben has come through, with two go-ahead touchdown drives in fourth quarters and taking over on crucial drives, with no-huddle attacks and almost exclusively going in the shotgun to spread it around. In the battle of unbeatens at Tennessee, the Steelers were up 24-7 at halftime, with Roethlisberger converting all four third downs with nine or more yards to go. This past Sunday in Baltimore in a huge AFC North clash with the Ravens, the Steelers offense could not get anything done for the first half plus, with Lamar Jackson gifting his opponents 14 points directly off turnovers, but when Pittsburgh needed to a couple of touchdowns to go ahead, their quarterback came through, as they threw the ball on 15 of those 18 plays and the three runs resulted in -1 yard (+ a touchdown). To do this after a season-ending elbow injury on his throwing arm last year is impressive.

2. Jason Verrett
For this one we have to go all the way back to like 2015 and even before that. Jason Verrett was a first-team All-American selection in 2013 and then a first-round pick for the Chargers coming out of TCU. After showing a ton of potential in an injury-riddled rookie campaign, he became a Pro Bowler in his second season with three interceptions and 12 more passes deflected, including a pick-six. The next two years, he only played a combined five games with consecutive ACL injuries and then missed all of 2018 with a torn Achilles. His bad injury luck would follow him to San Francisco however, as he would go on IR with an ankle injury shortly after signing with the 49ers last year. Now, finally in 2020 he is back on the field and balling out. Verrett had a big interception in the end-zone against the Rams a couple of weeks ago and three PBUs the rest of the season, having started the last six games. However, it is the more advanced stats about what the veteran corner has done in coverage that are really impressive. On 25 targets, he has given up just 123 yards and no touchdowns. Plus, he is a highly dependable tackler, having only missed one attempt all season and holding opposing receivers to just 32 yards after the catch. The 49ers had major issues with their corners for large stretches of the season, as Richard Sherman has been on IR since week one and the with Emmanuel Moseley also missing some time, those other guys on the boundary have gotten roasted in some of their matchups. Not with Verrett. He has easily been a top ten player at his position so far and I don’t know how you can take him out of the starting lineup, once they have Sherm and Moseley back together.

3. Aldon Smith
I thought long and hard about putting Rob Gronkowski here, because after Gronk look like his feet were stuck in mud early on, he and Tom Brady are not operating at a really high level again, and it almost seems like the big tight-end got his confidence back. However, I decided to go with somebody who was not one but five(!) years out of the league and as we all know, this award is a lot about the stories of these players. When Aldon Smith was drafted in 2011, it was immediately between him and Von Miller as the best young edge rusher in the league, and Smith out-produced the Broncos All-Pro with 14 and 19.5 sacks in his first two years, before he entered a rehabilitation center midway through 2013 season, when he has on path for another one of those years. The two following seasons, he looked like a shell of himself in San Francisco and then Oakland, as his mind clearly wasn’t right, with several off-the-field issues leading two suspensions that cost him the 2016 and ’17 seasons. Now, all the way in 2020, he is back with the Dallas Cowboys and especially early on he looked like a dominant player on the edge. Smith is now at five sacks on the season, with three of those coming against the Seahawks, as he was the only defensive player that kept his team in the game, with additional hits on the quarterbacks. To go with that, he has made some nice tackles in the run game, fighting off blocks and getting hands on the ball-carrier. He has cooled off a little bit these last few weeks, but the lack of production is more a product of how bad the Cowboys defense has been as a whole and long much they’ve been on the field. If he was on a team right now, that allowed him to rush in obvious passing situation, he could potentially be in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.

Notables: Rob Gronkowski & Alex Smith

Play of the Year:

https://preview.redd.it/e7hgczoznhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=367a15768a5e30164afcabc575cbf2e6700ff75f

1. D.K. Metcalf chase-down tackle on Budda Baker after the INT
One of the greatest hustle plays you will ever see and it started a meme fest on the internet.

2. Derrick Henry 94-yard touchdown run vs. Texans
The combination of speed and power is freakish for this dude. He tore Houston a new one.

3. Odell Beckham Jr. going 60 yards on the reverse vs. Cowboys
Of couese bad effort and angles by the Dallas defense, but this looked like Giants Odell.

All-Pro teams:

Since this is not about building a team or anything like that, I just went to the most used personnel sets for either side of the ball – 11 personnel and nickel defense – and filled up those spots with who I believe have been the best players at those positions. So there is differentiating between left and right tackle, 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 were put together as “EDGE” and there are just any two stand-up linebackers inserted.

Offense:

LT David Bakhtiari
LG Quenton Nelson
C Corey Linsley
RG Wyatt Teller
RT Duane Brown
Second team: Laremy Tunsil, Michael Onwenu, Jason Kelce, Gabe Jackson & Ryan Ramczyk

WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR D.K. Metcalf
WR Davante Adams
TE Travis Kelce
Second team: Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson & George Kittle

QB Russell Wilson
RB Alvin Kamara
Second team: Patrick Mahomes & Derrick Henry

Defense:

DE Myles Garrett
DT Aaron Donald
DT Chris Jones
DE T.J. Watt
Second team: Khalil Mack, Jeffery Simmons, Cam Heyward & Calais Campbell

LB Fred Warner
LB Lavonte David
Second team: Darius Leonard & K.J. Wright

CB Kyle Fuller
CB Jaire Alexander
NB Marlon Humphrey
Second team: James Bradberry, Jalen Ramsey & Jason Verrett

FS Minkah Fitzpatrick
SS Budda Baker
Second team: Jessie Bates & Antoine Winfield

Coach of the Year in the comments!!

If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/11/05/nfl-2020-midseason-awards/
Also make sure you check out my detailed recap of the NFL's week eight on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXx87t1Dcvk

Game Matchups Preview #10: Bills @ Cardinals

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 10th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming game at the Cardinals. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Cardinals’ Passing Defense
Josh Allen is dominating this season. Through 9 games he has 2828 yards, 24 TDs, 68.9 Cmp %, and just 9 turnovers. And to be honest, he hasn’t broken math, he just simply has gotten better. Each game you see something else, one week its pocket presence, the next it’s vision, then it’s pre-snap adjustments, basically every week he adds a new wrinkle to a fold to the point where he is inarguably a top 5 QB in the NFL, at least in 2020. Bills fans have clamored for a franchise QB since Jim Kelly, and for the first time they can say “We got our guy”.
And this week “Our guy” goes up against a defense which ranks 10th in the NFL in Passer Rating against. For context, only the Dolphins rank higher (#8) making this one of the more difficult pass defenses Allen and the Bills have faced in 2020. The Cardinals have accomplished this mainly due to 2 studs in their secondary, Patrick Peterson (CB) and Budda Baker (S). Peterson is in the 10th season of a career where he has made the Pro Bowl 8 times and been named an All-Pro 3 times. A lockdown corner who has consistently shut down opposing #1s, Peterson will likely shade Diggs and should be an incredible matchup to watch Sunday. Then there is Budda Baker, who is a Darkhorse for DPOY. With a similar playstyle to Jordan Poyer, Baker is a safety that is everywhere and anywhere making plays on balls in the air or players in the backfield. As dominant a safety as you will see in the NFL in 2020 Baker is a more complete version of Jamal Adams capable of wreaking havoc at every level.
But I’m not too worried about the coverages that the Cardinals will throw at the Bills however, I am weary of their blitzing. The Cardinals blitz 40% (#5) of the time which is a bit misleading because they play a 3-4 but is still something to monitor. Haason Reddick is their primary blitzer blitzing 15% of his snaps, getting home 5 times for 5 sacks. The Bills will need to account for this unique blitz set and should get a boost there by the return of Mitch Morse (C). Assuming Morse comes back the Bills, for the first time, could have their #1 OL unit on the field. It’s going to be an offensive battle this week so anything will help but regardless of what is on the field, the Bills should take this matchup.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Cardinals’ Rushing Defense
The Bills HAD to rush against the Patriots and didn’t NEED to rush against the Seahawks. 38 rushes for 190 yards against the Patriots turned into 19 for 34 yards against the Seahawks. The stats were not pretty but perfectly encapsulate the Bills’ gameplan against the Seahawks, pass, then pass again, and pass some more. Still the most interesting thing to come from this game was the split between Singletary and Moss. Moss played 56% of the snaps, to Singletary’s 46%, and had 9 rushes to Singletary’s 2. I honestly don’t know what to make of this spread but still believe this will be a 50/50 share moving forward making it a clear Sigfried & Roy situation instead of a Penn & Teller.
But if the Bills WANT to run this week, they should find some lanes. The Cardinals currently rank 25th in Y/A at 4.6, exposed by how much they blitz. I’ve talked about this in past posts that blitzing is a live by and die by mentality. If the blitz hits home a team is golden but if it misses you leave open lanes with 2nd level OL able to break large chunks. The Seahawks game is a great example of this as they were able to put up 200 yards on the ground against this Cardinals’ defense, led by their QB, Russel Wilson, who had 84. Blitzing teams often struggle against mobile QBs because it exposes them to rollouts in the event the blitz misses and while Josh Allen has not run as much this year, we all know he is still one of the premier ground threats in the NFL.
But if Allen isn’t moving with his legs this week, more than last, the Bills will need something from their RBs. And these RBs will run into an old friend in Jordan Phillips who mans the interior of this DL. Phillips frankly is having a mediocre season with only 10 tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 TFL through 8 games but as all Bills’ fans know embraces the “revenge” game as a chance to make his presence known. Still the Bills will need to rely on the interior of their OL to push back Phillips and Corey Peters (DT) to give their RBs space to run. If the Bills can move the ball consistently on the ground, you will see them put up a big score again this week.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Cardinals’ Passing Offense
It is an odd thing to say that your pass defense played incredibly well when they gave up 362 yards through the air, but that’s what I am going to say. MVP front runner Russel Wilson has had a sub 100 passer rating just 2 times this season and the Bills are one of them holding him to a rating of 94.6. There were 3 major causes of this. 1 – Tre White balled out, often shadowing DK Metcalf, giving up a passer rating of just 36.9 while having an interception. 2 – Jordan Poyer continued his dominant season with an interception and 10 tackles, he is on All-Pro watch by the way. 3 – The pass rush was great and constantly pressured Wilson to throw early. While one player deserved shade for most of the season, he doesn’t this week. A.J. Klein was the Defensive Player of the Week regardless of what the NFL says and made a MASSIVE impact this game. Give that man kudos.
And now the Bills go from MVP frontrunner to MVP Darkhorse in matchup with Kyler Murray. Murray is having an exceptional second season already with 2600+ yards and 27 TDs, in just 8 games, the 5’10” Murray is proving why the Cardinals selected him #1 overall in 2019. It also does not hurt that Murray has a three-headed monster at WR that rivals even the Bills trio. Larry Fitzgerald is still hauling in passes at the end of his career continuing to prove why he will be considered a top 5 WR all time. Deep Threat, Christian Kirk, is coming on as of late with 75+ receiving yards in 3 out of his past 4 games. Last is the star of the group, DeAndre Hopkins who I could argue is the most complete WR I have ever seen play football. Combining a physique built to play WR, the instincts & vision of a tactician, and pure talent few possess Hopkins has the ability to turn bad QBs good and good QBs great.
And Hopkins will be ½ of the best matchup of this game, Hopkins vs. Tre White. In the past 2 games where these 2 have been on the field Hopkins has racked up 153 yards, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In the 2019 Wildcard game Tre White held Hopkins to just 29 yards going into the 4th quarter and in their 2018 regular season matchup held him to just 39 yards in the first 3 quarters. This is an interesting trend which may continue Sunday where Tre gets the better of Hopkins through 3 and Hopkins breaks through in crunch time. A cause for concern, if Micah Hyde is unable to go the over the top coverage will be weakened forcing Tre to play tighter than normal on arguably the best WR in the game.
EDGE: Cardinals 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Cardinals’ Rushing Offense
Bills fans love to talk about comebacks so how about another one. I have been very critical of Tremaine Edmunds through the first half of the season, rightfully so, but his game against Seattle may be the start of something. While I’m not willing to call it a “comeback” just yet I am excited to see what he can do the remainder of the season. The 3rd year LB was all over the field racking up 11 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 TFLs. Edmunds seemed to be dissecting plays much faster and hitting the correct gap quickly allowing him to be a force over the middle. This week he will likely be in a similar role as last, spying Murray on pass plays, and moving forward on runs.
The Cardinals use a 2/3 split at RB with ex-Dolphin, Kenyan Drake, taking 66% of the carries and 3rd year RB Chase Edmunds taking the other 33%. Drake, a highly agile back can make multiple cuts and force defenders to miss. Often used in zone reads the threat Kyler Murray poses with his legs allows Drake to often get free and be 1 on 1 with opposing DBs. When this happens, Drake has consistently been able to gain big yardage. As for Chase Edmunds, while he is primarily a receiving back, he is a solid runner of the football. What stood out to me most watching Edmunds tape is just how good he is at breaking arm tackles. On nearly every play I watched when one defender got just an arm on Edmunds, he was either able to completely break it or fall forward for 3-4 more yards.
Still, as I alluded to, the key on the ground here is not the RBs but instead Kyler Murray. Behind an average at best OL, headlined by LT D.J. Humphries, Murray is often forced to scramble and when doing so has been deadly. Right now, Murray leads the NFL with 7.1 Y/A and is on pace to exceed 1000 yards on the ground. He has a unique ability to make defenders miss with top end speed to break away once getting to the open field. Edmunds will generally be tasked with the spy here but, as is tradition, Bills DEs must play contain. This is a game the Bills would love to have Matt Milano back for but since that can’t happen expect the Bills to almost exclusively play Big Nickel to ramp up the speed on the field in an effort to contain Murray.
EDGE: Cardinals 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Cardinals’ Special Teams
Andre Roberts’ started the Bills Seahawks game with a 60-yard return, oh so close to proving my prediction right and scoring a TD. Roberts is the best return man in the NFL in 2020 and while he hasn’t put a TD on the board his ability to flip the field has been a weapon for Buffalo all season. Another weapon for Buffalo has been their punter, Corey Bojorquez, who is averaging just 2.3 punts per game but is averaging nearly 50 yards per punt. Then there is Tyler Bass who kicked 9 times against the Seahawks and made 8 of them, his only miss? A 61-yard field goal attempt. Live or Die by the Bass I say, but he has been thumping as of late.
The Cardinals use different players a KR and PR. At KR is RB Chase Edmunds who is averaging just 23 Y/R with a long of 42 on the season while WR Christian Kirk is handling PR duties with a long of 10 and a Y/R of just 2.8. Make no mistake, regardless of these players recent struggles they both have top end speed and if the opportunity arises could do damage. Punting for the Cardinals is Andy Lee who is having an awful season with a Y/P of just 43.9, net Y/P of 39.6, and an I20 % of just 13.8 (Bojo’s is 42.9). Last at kicker is Zane Gonzalez, who is 11/15 for FGs and 27/28 for XPs. With more misses under 50 yards (#3) than over 50 yards (#2) Gonzalez has been a liability for the Cardinals thus far in 2020.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
I’d liken the challenge of stopping Murray in 2020 to the challenge of stopping Lamar Jackson in 2019, with one caveat, Murray is a better passer. While the Bills bailed out against the Ravens last year to stop the run, and for the most part held Lamar Jackson in check, they can’t do the same against the Cardinals. Yes, Murray will run the ball and likely pick up big yardage from time to time, but it is his passing ability that will set him apart and he should be able to slice up a secondary which has struggled through 2020. Hopkins will be the focus of the Bills but if they lose over the top protection Murray has shown an affinity to hit the deep ball to Christian Kirk. This could be a long day for Buffalo and a great day for Kyler.
On defense the Cardinals have ball hawks throughout their secondary and big hitters up front. As Bills’ fans saw against the Titans & Chiefs turnovers can be the deciding factor in games, and that could be just what happens here. Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson will both challenge WRs for the ball, but it is the pressure on Allen that has me worried. Reddick will come at Allen on a unique set of blitzes and if able to reach the Bills’ QB will be coached to rip the ball out. At the end of the day though it is the ex-Bill that has me most worried. Jordan Phillips has something to prove here, he wants to prove the Bills should have paid him, and the best way to do that is to wreck this game and push the Bills to 7-3.
Why We Will Win
At this point in the season the MVP order is likely 1 – Aaron Rodgers, 2 – Patrick Mahomes, 3A – Russel Wilson, 3B – Josh Allen. Allen has been the entire Bills’ offense and is finding ways to get everyone of his receivers the ball. Stefon Diggs will challenge an older Patrick Peterson in a fun matchup to watch, John Brown will force an Over Bracket Coverage and should find some success down field, and Cole Beasley will continue to do what he does best and be that pressure release valve for Josh Allen. Sure, the run game could get going but at the end of the day this is Josh Allen’s world and we are all just living in it.
On defense the Bills may finally be jelling as they held the Russel Wilson led Seahawks in check. Success in that game came from the Bills’ stars; Tre White, Jordan Poyer, & Tremaine Edmunds, and from their role players, like A.J. Klein. With this defense slowly rounding back into form they can be expected to get better and better every week. Bad news for the Cardinals because if this Bills’ defense can be 75% of what they were in 2019 the Cardinals may just be running into one of, if not the, most complete team in the entire NFL.
Prediction: Bills 34 – Cardinals 31
As I write this Vegas has the Cardinals at -2.5 which makes this a pick’em (Home field is basically an auto -3). I was wrong last week in picking the Bills to lose and the crow I had to eat was delicious, I won’t be wrong this week. The Bills’ offense is most dangerous when they are spread out into 4 WR threats where Josh Allen is one of the most imposing figures in the NFL. I expect him to have another big game in this shootout and then fully expect talking heads like Nick Wright to say something along the lines of “Well it was just the Cardinals, do it against a team like the Steelers.” The Bills leave the desert 8-2 and get some much deserved rest heading into their bye week.

How rookie Andrew Thomas has improved and 9 other Giants notes - The Athletic

The Giants are riding a four-game winning streak into Sunday’s matchup with the Cardinals. Here are 10 thoughts on the surging Giants as they try to maintain their spot atop the NFC East:
1. It would be tidier to believe that left tackle Andrew Thomas’ early struggles were due to drastic technique changes imposed by former Giants offensive line coach Marc Colombo, and that the rookie’s recent improvement is simply the result of undoing those bad habits. But the reality is more subtle.
“Obviously, not having a preseason, not having OTAs and things like that had an effect,” Thomas said. “Playing my first couple games, it took a minute to grasp. I’m still getting better, I’m still working, trying to fix some things. I think it just takes times and repetition to get better.”
Thomas said he hasn’t made any drastic changes to his technique in the three weeks since Dave DeGuglielmo replaced Colombo. But getting comfortable facing NFL pass rushers simply took time.
Thomas said things started to click in the Giants’ loss to the Buccaneers in Week 8. Thomas rebounded in that matchup against Tampa Bay’s Jason Pierre-Paul after a dreadful showing the previous week against the Eagles.
That was the start of a turnaround for the No. 4 pick in the draft, as Thomas hasn’t allowed a single pressure in the past two games, according to Pro Football Focus. He allowed 5.1 pressures per game before the matchup with the Bucs.
“I see his level of play improving,” coach Joe Judge said. “But that’s natural for any rookie through the course of the season and just getting more and more experience, especially with the way he had to start this season. Look, this guy came in baptized by fire. He saw some of the top rushers in the world out of the gate.”
Thomas provided insight into the technique adjustments he’s had to make in the NFL after three successful seasons at Georgia. In college, he always set in a 45-degree angle in pass protection. Setting on that angle leaves a tackle susceptible to inside moves by edge rushers, but Thomas said he typically had a guard sliding in his direction to help inside.
But in the NFL, Thomas has been asked to take a more vertical set, which keeps him square to the line longer and is better for dealing with stunts. But it’s also more challenging to master, and it can lead to giving up inside moves, struggling with bull rushes and timing issues with his punch if not executed properly. (Here’s a great breakdown of pass sets from former Giants offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz.)
“I would say a little bit different as far as my hand placement,” Thomas said of technique changes from college. “That’s been something that I have been working on. And set-wise, at Georgia, I was always on a straight and hard 45 (degree) angle. Recently, I’ve been working a little bit more vertical to an angle set just depending on the alignment of pressures.”
Thomas’ biggest struggle early in the season was getting beaten on inside moves. He was oversetting because he was concerned the rusher would get around him to the edge.
“I would overset a lot of times and put myself in a bad position,” Thomas said. “You have to trail your defender, trust your athleticism to push a guy around the pocket so you don’t give up the inside.”
The Giants knew Thomas was capable of performing like this when they took him with the fourth pick in the draft. It took some time, but his play is starting to validate the team’s faith.
2. All signs are pointing toward quarterback Daniel Jones starting Sunday’s game after missing last week’s win over the Seahawks with a hamstring injury. Judge is planning to make a decision after watching Jones in Friday’s practice, but the quarterback has made steady progress.
Jones moved well during the portion of Thursday’s practice that was open to reporters and he was listed as a limited participant, which indicates he split first-team reps with backup Colt McCoy. Judge said Wednesday that he was “optimistic” that Jones would play and the quarterback’s desire to get back on the field is unquestioned.
The only reason Jones would be held out is if Judge doesn’t believe he can move well enough to protect himself. That’s why another practice on Friday will be important for Judge to gather more information on Jones’ progress.
The Giants want Jones back in the lineup because he gives them a better chance to win than McCoy, whose clear limitations were on display in the 17-12 win over Seattle. The other benefit of getting Jones back on the field is the organization will have an opportunity to evaluate the second-year pro in a playoff race. It will be revealing to see how Jones, who was playing better before his injury, responds to the bright lights and higher stakes down the stretch.
3. Leonard Williams is understandably drawing a ton of the attention with 8.5 sacks, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL. But teammates and coaches have made a point of giving recognition to one of Williams’ colleagues on the defensive line.
“I know Leonard’s disruptive, but I think Dalvin (Tomlinson) is having as good of a year as anybody on our defense,” safety Logan Ryan said. “He’s the nose guard getting double-teamed every play, but he’s taking up two blocks, causing disruption, getting interior push so (Buccaneers quarterback) Tom Brady and these quarterbacks can’t step up against us. He might not get credited with a sack every game, but he’s just as important.”
Tomlinson, who has 1.5 sacks, isn’t generating any Pro Bowl buzz. But he’s been typically reliable — he’s started all 60 games of his career — and is a big reason the Giants have one of the best run defenses in the league.
“Where that D-line is going right as they go through this process is a direct correlation to his leadership and what he does on that field, regardless of what statistics or what have you,” defensive coordinator Patrick Graham said.
Graham, who was Tomlinson’s position coach with the Giants in 2017, raved about his pupil’s maturation. Tomlinson was named the Giants’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee on Thursday for his work in the community.
A homegrown player with exemplary character should be a no-brainer to sign long-term. But with Williams and Tomlinson set to become free agents after the season, the Giants have to decide if it’s worth making two significant investments on the defensive line. It seems like they have no choice considering how important Williams and Tomlinson have been to the defense’s success.
4. How dominant has the Giants defense been recently? They have allowed just six defensive touchdowns during their four-game winning streak.
The Giants are allowing 22.1 points per game this season, which ranks ninth best in the NFL. They are tied for eighth in sacks despite a core of edge rushers currently comprised of journeyman Jabaal Sheard, sixth-round pick Cam Brown, seventh-round pick Carter Coughlin and undrafted rookie Niko Lalos. The Giants’ plus-8 turnover ratio over the past four weeks is the best in the NFL.
5. Rookie safety Xavier McKinney has been eased into the lineup in the past two weeks after missing the first 10 games with a broken foot. The second-round pick played five defensive snaps in his debut against the Bengals in Week 12 and six snaps against the Seahawks.
Expect McKinney’s role to increase gradually, with an opportunity for more snaps on Sunday, especially as a spy on Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
“I expect his role to keep increasing and I do expect his play to keep improving because he’s going to be working with the team out there,” Judge said.
6. It’s easy to make comparisons between Murray and Seattle’s Russell Wilson since they’re both undersized quarterbacks with strong arms. But they have very different styles of play, which the Giants have emphasized throughout the week.
“Not that Russell isn’t fast, but this guy Murray is true speed,” Graham said. “When I’m talking to the players, true speed. Not fast, not quick — we’re dealing with true speed. Any mistake, it can be a touchdown at any given moment.”
Murray has 665 yards and six touchdowns on the ground (Wilson has 424 yards and one touchdown rushing). There are some general principles that will carry over from last week, such as maintaining discipline in pass rush lanes.
But Arizona’s scheme is much different than Seattle’s. The Seahawks have a greater emphasis on downfield throws, although Murray has the third-best passer rating in the league on throws over 20 yards (Jones is first). Murray hasn’t played as well since suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.
Like Seattle, the Cardinals have a marquee No. 1 receiver. DeAndre Hopkins has 85 catches for 1,019 yards and five touchdowns and is far more polished than Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf. It will be another tough matchup for Giants cornerback James Bradberry, who has been up to the task all season.
Coach Kliff Kingsbury brought the Air Raid offense with him from college. That means a lot of up-tempo play that stresses defenses since it limits substitutions, which will make it more difficult for Graham to get different types of packages onto the field. There are also a lot of horizontal passing concepts, so cornerbacks need to be sound tacklers to limit the yardage on wide receiver screens.
The Cardinals aren’t as pass-happy as college spread offenses. In addition to Murray’s rushing threat, Kenyan Drake is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has eight rushing touchdowns, and No. 2 back Chase Edmonds, who had three touchdowns against the Giants last season, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
7. The Giants will see some familiar faces on Sunday. Former Giants Markus Golden, Devon Kennard and Justin Pugh will make their return to MetLife Stadium as visitors.
The Giants dealt Golden to Arizona in exchange for a sixth-round pick at this season’s trade deadline. Golden had 10 sacks last season for the Giants but was buried by the new coaching staff, playing just 36 percent of the snaps in seven games.
The Cardinals had a need for an edge rusher after Chandler Jones suffered a torn biceps in Week 5, and Golden has instantly claimed a significant role. He’s playing 73 percent of the snaps and his 20 pressures in five games rank second on the team for the season.
Kennard was a solid player for four seasons after being selected by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. The Giants let Kennard walk in free agency in 2018 and he signed a three-year, $17.25 million contract with the Lions (the Giants instead signed Kareem Martin to a three-year, $15 million contract).
Kennard was a solid player for the Lions, recording seven sacks in each of his two seasons in Detroit while serving as a captain, but he was a surprise cap casualty in the offseason. The 29-year-old landed in Arizona on a three-year, $20 million contract. He has two sacks in more of a reserve role this season.
Like Kennard, Pugh was a Jerry Reese draft pick who wasn’t retained in free agency after Dave Gettleman took over as general manager in 2018. Pugh signed a five-year, $44.8 million contract with the Cardinals and his injury history followed him to Arizona, as he was limited to seven games in 2018. But Pugh has started 28 straight games and his play has been similar to that during his time in New York: solid but unspectacular.
8. Former Giants coach Ray Perkins died Wednesday. The 79-year-old Perkins led the Giants out of a dark period in the franchise’s history. He had a 23-34 record from 1979-82, leading the Giants to the playoffs in 1981 to end an 18-year postseason drought.
Perkins left the Giants after the strike-shortened 1982 season to take the head coaching job at his alma mater, Alabama. He was succeeded by his defensive coordinator, Bill Parcells, who led the Giants to two Super Bowl titles.
Judge, who was an assistant at Alabama from 2009-11, had a few interactions with Perkins. Judge recalled advice Perkins shared during a conversation they had in the spring of 2012.
“He spent a lot of time with me that day, actually talking about being a young coach and really working with players and developing the players,” Judge said. “The development of the players is what he really hammered me with, and that really came after a spring practice and watching a lot of young guys out there trying to plug guys around and find the right spots for them. He was just sharing some wisdom along, ‘Hey listen, give everybody an opportunity to improve and don’t make your mind up too early from what you think someone can do.’”
It’s clear that the advice stuck with Judge. Players such as cornerback Isaac Yiadom and safety Julian Love were benched early in the season, but injuries forced them back into the lineup and they’ve developed into serviceable defensive pieces.
Judge’s reverence for the Giants’ history is evident. One nod to the franchise’s past that Judge has incorporated is having the team’s practice players of the week wear the jersey of a Ring of Honor member the week after a win. So there have been jerseys bearing the names of Frank Gifford (McCoy) and Y.A. Tittle (Clayton Thorson) on the practice field in recent weeks.
“To me, the history of this organization is very important,” Judge said. “It’s very important for all of our players coming in here to understand that this team has been here a lot longer than they have been around. It’s up to us to understand the history of this organization and who has come before us to make this a great place to be.”
9. When Judge speaks about big-picture coaching concepts, it’s easy to understand why he impressed the Giants brass when he interviewed in January. His explanation of how teams improve over the course of a season was enlightening.
“On the field, I don’t think you can ever leave that training camp mindset where you have to emphasize fundamentals and technique on a daily basis, and you have to stay sharp on that,” Judge said. “A lot of times you get to this point of the season, it becomes so much about scheme. What you see is, when you come out of training camp early in the season, there’s not as much scheme involved, but the fundamentals have to improve. You get to October and beginning of November, the scheme has come more together as a team, and maybe the fundamentals have improved to a degree, but it’s kind of leveled off.
“When you get to the backend of the season, you have a mix of two different types of teams. You have teams that continue to improve schematically and fundamentally, and you have other teams that have overloaded the schematics, forgot about the fundamentals and they fall off. While they may have a great scheme on the grass, they can’t make a tackle, can’t finish a block, can’t hold onto the ball with ball security, can’t deliver a throw in pressure situations. The fundamentals have to always be there to be a successful team.”
10. Nate Solder made his first public comments since opting out for the season this week in an interview in the New York Post. The story is worth a read to learn about the charitable work Solder is doing this fall.
From a football standpoint, I always felt like there was a strong possibility Solder would retire when he opted out. Nothing he said in the interview changed that sense.
“I feel like I’m in such a blessed position because I’ve had a window into what life after football is going to look like,” Solder told the Post. “If it ends like this, I really enjoy what I’m doing and the opportunities I have. That does not mean it’s going to happen now. It could be in two, three years. I have not made that decision yet.”
Though Solder is keeping his options open, he certainly doesn’t sound like someone who desperately misses football and can’t wait to return. Solder turns 33 in May. He has played in 130 games, won two Super Bowl rings, endured countless injuries and earned over $70 million. With three young children, including 5-year-old Hudson who is battling cancer, and ambitions far beyond football, it would not be a surprise if Solder walks away.
If Solder retires this offseason, the financial implications are the same as if he gets cut or traded. The Giants would get $5.9 million in cap savings while eating $10.5 million in dead money.
The Giants also could designate Solder as a post-June 1 cut (or he could wait until after June 1 to retire). That would result in $9.9 million in cap savings and $6.5 million in dead money in 2021. The additional $4 million in dead money would count against the 2022 cap with a post-June 1 cut.
With Thomas entrenched at left tackle and fellow rookie Matt Peart being developed to take over at right tackle, it seems unlikely that the Giants will be interested in retaining Solder at his cap hit. He could take the decision out of their hands by retiring. Prediction: Giants 24, Cardinals 22. I’m officially a believer. I learned my lesson by picking a lopsided loss to the Seahawks last week. Winning that game with McCoy has erased my doubts about the Giants’ legitimate improvement. I’m not expecting it to be pretty, but I’ve learned not to bet against this defense.

A Few Thoughts AFC Champ and Future

NFL Draft week 10 Mock Draft 2 round w/ Explanations

The order is based on Tankathon with no trades.
1.) NY Jets- Trevor Lawrence-QB
It really doesn’t matter who is picking here T Law goes 1st. This guy is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and has been playing against the top tier competition since he was a freshman. Also, those golden locks are more marketable than Luck’s thick beard ever was so he should do well in NY
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars-Justin Fields-QB
Minshew Mania is finally subsiding and as Duval County comes out of their haze of jean shorts and 80s inspired mustaches they see Fields ready to take the reins. Fields is coming out of the very QB friendly offense in Ohio State where he was given ample opportunity to show off his arm, decision making, and athleticism. Fields will have to have to adjust to a pro offense but his football IQ and progression ability seems higher than the last few QBs out of Columbus so he should be fine.
3.) Washington Football Team-Penei Sewell-OT
The Washington Football Team has a lot of holes to fill on offense including QB, LT, and WR. With top prospects on the board at each position they opt for the generational talent in the trenches and keep moving. Kyle Smith loves going BPA in the trenches, see WFTs DL for proof, and will have his mouth watering to grab the heir to Trent Williams’ throne. Also, I think Rivera has faith in his QB room at the moment to hold the reins for a year or two while a developmental guy is brought in in rounds 2/3. Sewell is a “cant miss” prospect and should anchor that LT position for 5-10 years and could develop further as he is just 20 years old.
4.) Dallas Cowboys-Patrick Surtain II-CB
At this point I think Dallas would be looking to trade out with a team that has fallen in love with Parsons, Chase, or Rousseau to get more picks and retool that entire defense. But, in the “No Trade” universe Jerry stands pat and takes the best player on the board at a position of need in Surtain. Surtain is a true shutdown corner in the making with NFL lineage, his biggest weakness is tackling but if your Corner is doing a ton of that there are other issues to deal with.
5.) LA Chargers- Gregory Rousseau-EDGE
The Chargers came into the draft hoping that Sewell would fall to them and if he didn’t then they would likely trade out. But, we’re in the no trade universe so the Chargers look at their big board and decide to pick the best pass rusher available in Rousseau. The Miami product opted out of the 2020 season but there is good tape on him from the year prior and an athleticism that is hard to pass up. Also, Rousseau replaces Melvin Ingram for a much cheaper price than the UFA would ask for.
6.) Miami Dolphins via HOU- Micah Parsons-LB
Brian Flores would be sprinting to the podium to make this pick himself if Parsons is still on the board. Miami has a hole in the middle of their 3-4 and Parsons could be the dynamic playmaker to take the defense to a new level. The Penn State product is a fantastic athlete with good if not great instinct at the position. Additionally Parsons can be moved all around the defense with the ability to play at Edge rusher as well.
7.) Cincinnati Bengals-Ja’Marr Chase-WR
The Bengals have needs across the offensive line but cannot pass up the opportunity to reunite Joey B with his favorite target at the next level and get an elite talent in the process. Chase has the ability and Size to be a true number 1 at the next level and should pair nicely with Tee Higgins as the replacement for AJ Green.
8.) NY Giants- Kwity Paye-EDGE/DL
Credit given where credit is due, Joe Judge has transformed the defense in New York. But his fantastic defense is missing one key component, a strong pass rusher on the edge. Enter Kwity Paye who can set the edge with a solid combination of size and speed but also kick inside with his 277 Lb frame. Paye is a slight reach at the number 8 pick but it is hard to find Edge rushers with his potential if the Giants had waited until their second pick to grab one.
9.) Carolina Panthers-Kyle Pitts-TE
A moment of silence for the LBs that will face the Panthers this year. Pitts represents a matchup nightmare on most teams, with the Panthers though it goes to another level. Pitts takes some of the focus off of CMC while making it near impossible to be doubled because of the shifty running back, meaning he creates better matchups for one of the best weapons in the league. Pitts is an athlete who runs a wide receiver route tree at 6’5” 240 with soft hands and a willingness to block not much else you could want at his position.
10.) Atlanta Falcons-Caleb Farley-CB
Atlanta is stuck between a rebuild and a win now mentality because of Matt Ryan. The franchise QB has 3 years left on his contract and no easy out, cutting Ryan this year would incur $85 million in dead cap. So, because of that the Falcons fill a hole at Corner with Farley who should start from day one. Farley is a former WR who is presses well and plays the ball outstandingly, the only concerns might be zone concepts at the next level.
11.) Denver Broncos- Dylan Moses-LB
Although Broncos fans may want to see Drew Lock’s replacement picked here, John Elway keeps the faith and gives his guy another year. Instead he turns to the defense who is sorely lacking a leader in the middle of the field and picks Dylan Moses. Moses is the MLB in Alabama and should fit in to a similar role at the next level with a solid frame and good playmaking ability, his only weakness is that he is caught sometimes trying too hard rather than taking what the offense gives him.
12.) San Francisco 49rs-Zach Wilson-QB
The Niners are ready to move on from Jimmy G, and have a team friendly cut available. Also, Shanahan is known for having a QB friendly offense so it should be easier for a rookie QB to grasp and hit the ground running in San Fran. Wilson is the best combination of Pro Ready and Talent left on the board, despite running a spread offense in college, Wilson is seen on tape going through progressions and looking off Safeties already and has a cannon for an arm. The issues with Wilson come in his mechanics as he doesn’t set his feet as often as he should but this is coachable.
13.) Detroit Lions- DeVonta Smith-WR
The Lions have their top 3 WRs going into free agency this offseason and it is unlikely they retain all three. Also, The Lions still have Matt Stafford for one more year at least before a team friendly cut is available. To maximize the year Stafford has left along with setting the table for the next Franchise QB the Lions get a weapon with elite potential and shift the focus to defense for the next few rounds.
14.) Minnesota Vikings-Wyatt Davis-IOL
The Vikings would really love to move on from Kirk Cousins, in this “No Trade” world they can’t without cutting him which would incur 50 million in dead cap over two years. So like the Falcons their hand is forced to fill a need, fortunately for the Vikings, their biggest need is IOL and they get their pick of the top IOL prospects in this draft. Davis is an outstanding guard with few weaknesses and NFL bloodlines, he should start right away.
15.) New England Patriots-Jaylen Waddle-WR
For most other franchises with the Patriots pick/needs I would have mocked a QB here but this franchise is in the unique position of having a GOAT Head Coach/GM who is trying to win one more ring before retirement. Because of this I see the Pats picking a weapon who can help them immediately while grabbing a veteran like Jimmy G or sticking with Cam. Waddle represents the potential number 1 they have been missing since an aging Randy Moss walked into the practice facility. The WR has speed that would make Lightning McQueen jealous and sure hands. Waddles only issue is that he needs to expand the route tree.
16.) Chicago Bears- Alex Leatherwood-OL
The Bears are a strangely built team, on one hand they don’t have a QB of the future so they are primed for a rebuild. On the other hand they have lots of money and veteran talent tied up in the next year. This makes me think they are gunning for a playoff run this next year and if that doesn’t work out then clean house. Meaning, they pass on a QB that they need going forward and grab Leatherwood who should play immediately at LT should they move on from Leno or at one of the guard positions if they don’t.
17.) Cleveland Browns- Carlos Basham Jr.-EDGE
The Browns has a good offense that should compete in the AFC North going forward, their defense on the other hand could use some tuning up. Given the QBs in the division the easiest way to upgrade your defense is to grab someone who specializes in the pass rush. Basham Jr has all the skills right now to be a productive pass rusher while also being versatile enough to play the 5 tech in running situations. Basham’s only shortcoming as a prospect is that his athleticism doesn’t impress and may limit the potential he has as a top level pass rusher.
18.) Tennessee Titans- Joseph Ossai-EDGE
Tennessee tried to paper over their pass rush problems through the offseason with the pickup of Vic Beasley which did not work out. There is clearly a hole in the Edge/OLB role of that 3-4 which Ossai could really grow into. Ossai is a very raw prospect with lots of potential and positional flexibility, projections show him as a WLB or pure EDGE rusher. A 3-4 OLB would be a perfect mix of the two roles and should allow the athletic prospect to flourish
19.) Philadelphia Eagles-Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB
Due to the absolute suck fest that is the NFC East this year, the Eagles earn a playoff birth that they are promptly defeated during and their reward is a much crappier draft pick than their team warrants. Luckily for them a top prospect is still available at a position of need. Owusu-Koramoah would slot in the WLB position from day one and should be an upgrade on everyone on the roster while providing a necessary amount of athleticism in a division which includes Barkley, Elliot, and Gibson
20.) Arizona Cardinals- Pat Freiermuth-TE
Kyler Murray looks good enough early on that he may not need a security blanket like most QBs his age but the Cards give him one anyways. Similar to the situation that Kyle Pitts walked into, Freiermuth is going into an absolutely stacked receiver group in Arizona and will operate in the middle to ensure single coverage to Nuk, Fitz, and Kirk. Freiermuth is more of a traditional TE, think Gronk style of play, but should still create matchups to take advantage of due to his sheer Size, Speed, and Physicality.
21.) NY Jets via SEA- Rashod Bateman-WR
The Jets are a team that has lots of needs and should probably go with BPA through the first few rounds. Although there are some good corners on the board, the prospect of giving their new Franchise QB a favorite target is tantalizing. Ultimately they pick Bateman as a receiver opposite Crowder and Mims. Bateman should step right in as a red zone threat while catching contested balls and having some sneaky YAC ability. The only drawback to his game is that he plays like a traditional possession receiver while lacking the size to pull it off at times
22.) Miami Dolphins- Rondale Moore-WR
The Dolphins get a WR to pair with DeVante Parker and make Tua’s life just a bit easier in Miami. Moore is coming out of Perdue with some impressive tape under his belt albeit while being a touch undersized at 5’9” 175. Moore will slip right into the slot and can be a threat after the catch on slants and bubble routes or a deep threat on the seam route.
23.) Indianapolis Colts-Mac Jones-QB
Honestly this pick heavily is impacted by Philip Rivers’ potential retirement. If Rivers decided to come back after this year I could see the Colts taking a shot on Trey Lance essentially redshirting him and letting him learn from Old Man Rivers. However, I bet that Rivers will retire and in this case leading the Colts to the playoffs in the process. The Colts will still need a QB but is going to need someone who can start reliably on day one, of the three major QB prospects left Mac Jones is the most pro ready prospect and has faced a high level of competition while taking over for Tua last year and this year facing the whole of the SEC. Lastly, I don’t see the Colts trading for a QB/Signing one because they got recently burnt on Jacoby Brissett.
24.) Baltimore Ravens- Creed Humphrey-IOL
The Ravens have a fantastic defense with the only hole being at the FS position after the Earl Thomas incident(s) and the Ngakoue trade. I see Ngakoue staying in Baltimore if the money can be figured out so the holes that need to be addressed are the FS and on Offense. At this pick, the isn’t a lot of value at the Safety and WR positions so in the “No Trade” universe the Ravens solidify the interior offensive line with the best IOL on the board at the moment. Humphrey was a consistent starter at a top level program in Oklahoma, called plays at Center and should have the football IQ and athleticism to move to G if necessary at the next level
25.) Jaguars via LAR-Samuel Cosmi
The Jaguars have their QB of the future and get some insurance protection in the same round with Cosmi. Cosmi has lots of starting experience at a top tier college program and still has room to grow at only 21. Could add some weight to his frame but as is he is extremely athletic and has the capability of a mauling tackle who can hold down his position.
26.) Las Vegas Raiders- Marvin Wilson-DT
The Raiders need help all along the DL and could take one of the Edge rushers that are left but ultimately the one of the top DTs is still on the board in Wilson. Gruden has good starters with Hankins and Collins but they are both UFAs and have little depth behind them currently. Wilson gives the organization flexibility at either technique if either of the starters go down injured or aren’t signed and has lots of potential if he can develop a secondary rushing move.
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Christian Darrisaw-OT
At this point the name of the game is protect the old GOAT. Darrisaw has been starting games in a top five conference since 2016 and has been impressive every step of the way. Darrisaw has a nice frame and could put a few Lbs on as he transitions to the next level but needs to keep control of his footwork while doing so.
28.) Buffalo Bills- Shaun Wade-CB
The Bills need someone who can hold down the spot opposite of Tre’Davious White for the long term so they wait through the draft and Wade falls into their lap. In many mocks Wade is off the board earlier than this and for good reason. Wade played at Ohio State who is lauded for their DB development with several first rounders under their belt. Wade specifically has the ability to play both inside and outside while being an aggressive cover man.
29.) Green Bay Packers-Terrace Marshall Jr.-WR
The Packers are in a weird spot coming into this draft, while they are still successful the Pack have an aging Aaron Rodgers to keep happy but also drafted Jordan Love last year around this spot. Honestly if Green Bay decided to fill holes on Defense with this pick Aaron Rodgers could try to skip town. To keep the Hall of Famer happy the Packers finally get him a first round weapon in Marshall who has been climbing up boards lately while showing out for LSU. Marshall is a hulking possession receiver who rarely drops a pass while being athletic enough to create separation. Rodgers and Devonte Adams will be thrilled to have another high ceiling skill guy in the locker room
30.) Kansas City Chiefs-Trey Smith-IOL
With question marks surrounding the return of Austin Reiter from Free Agency and Kelechi Osemele from returning to the medical field during COVID the Chiefs take a safe pick in grabbing Trey Smith to insure the protection of their Star assets. Smith should slot right in to the starting lineup should one or both of them not return and the offense wouldn’t skip a beat.
31.) New Orleans Saints- Jevon Holland-S
With Trey Lance on the board Sean Payton passes?!? Yes, this is due mostly to two factors: Cap Crunch & Coaching Context. From a Cap Crunch perspective, the Saints currently have over $275 Million in expected expenditures under the cap and will need to fill holes in the secondary as there are 6 UFAs including their starting SS. Also, financially the Saints are invested heavily in the QB position with $36 Million headed Brees’ way and $16 Mil headed to Taysom Hill. Secondly, from a coaching perspective I am unsure if Sean Payton is enthusiastic about starting over again with a rookie. For evidence I point to the multiple high profile backups like Bridgewater and Winston. I think Payton much prefers experience in the league especially with a team built for a Super Bowl run. I think Lance would not meet the expectations of the shoes he would need to fill right away for the money being spent in other positions. Holland, would come in likely start at SS and fill in at slot CB when necessary and patch up the back end for a team poised to win a Championship.
32.) Pittsburg Steelers-Travis Etienne-RB
The Steelers are in a bit of a Cap Crunch next year, they have $200 million in current expenditures and only $6 million in cap to carry over from year to year with projected cap space potentially not growing due to COVID. Some of their UFAs include Juju Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Alejandro Villanueva, & Bud Dupree to name a few. In this situation the Steelers decide to let the RB go and get his replacement in the draft. Etienne will come in day one as the starter and bring a shocking combination of speed and size to the running back position that should bring more explosiveness to the Steelers Offense.
Round 2
33.) NY Jets- Quincy Roche-EDGE
The Jets only have one edge rusher for their 3-4 defense under contract for 2021. Given that edge rushers are typically going for top dollar in free agency I suspect they fill the need here for a starter with Roche. The Miami product is probably best suited for the 3-4 edge role as he is a touch undersized for the 5 tech that a 4-3 DE needs to play on occasion. Roche has really good hips and athletic potential, will need to put on some weight and learn how to cover in the next level.
34.) Jacksonville Jaguars- Christian Barmore-DT
The Jaguars need a space eater in the middle of their defense and Barmore is a 6’5” tackle with great technique to hold up blockers and bring double teams on. This is a good matach and the Jags get value here, although Barmore does have a relative rawness to him due to a lack of snaps at Alabama
35.) Dallas Cowboys- Hamsah Nasirildeen-S
The Cowboys need help at both safety positions and move to get Nasirildeen. The Florida State prospect projects to an in the box safety who plays fast and physical in the run and can hold his own in the pass. Nasirildeen slipped due to an ACL injury he sustained in the past along with some questions about his ball skills
36.) LA Chargers- Liam Eichenberg-OT
The Chargers finally get their QB some protection in the second with Eichenberg. Eichenberg should slot right into the LT spot and has very few issues besides fixing his footwork.
37.) Miami via HOU- Jayson Oweh-EDGE
Miami has a need at 3-4 edge rusher which they select Oweh to fill. Oweh has gobs of potential and athleticism but is very raw. Oweh was third string all of last year and has shown in 2020 to be weak against the run. If Oweh can refine his tech and be placed in a system centered around pass rush he can be great.
38.) Washington Football Team- Trey Lance-QB
REMINDER THIS IS A NO TRADE DRAFT, TREY LANCE WILL CERTAINLY BE GONE BEFORE THE END OF THE FIRST ROUND IN A DRAFT WITH TRADES. With that out of the way, Lance falls to the WFT in the second and all of the sudden Washington has a Franchise QB and LT in the same draft. Of course there are the caveats that make other teams pass on him: his arm is huge but so is the bust potential. Trey Lance could be the next Josh Allen IF he is able to get his footwork under control, learn to hang in the pocket, learn NFL progressions, and stop staring down receivers. But WFT has Kyle Allen or Alex Smith to start the season with and could redshirt Lance until they are out of playoff contention. They are under little to no pressure to “win now” like the Bears, Saints, and Colts are and thus the risk is mitigated exponentially especially with picking Lance in the 2nd
39.) Cincinnati Bengals-Dillon Radunz-OT
How weird is it that the NDSU guys go back to back in this draft? Despite the obvious questionable competition in college Radunz did dominate in pass pro with NFL caliber size and technique. However, he lacks the punch/first step necessary in the run game with consistency and has an issue with getting out of his stance at times. Bengals care about the pass pro more at the moment so they grab him.
40.) Carolina Panthers- Jaycee Horn-CB
The Panthers Defense is much more formidable unit than they were than just one short year ago but they still need some talent in the secondary. Jaycee Horn should be able to fix this while bringing length and SEC experience. He could see some issues with fluidity or double moves but coaching should fix this at the next level.
41.) NY Giants- Rashawn Slater-OL
The Giants selected two tackles last year in an effort to keep Danny Dimes from being strip sacked last year but it hasn’t quite fixed the issue so far. To bring in some more young help, they take Rashawn Slater. Slater has played RT in the Big Ten for years and is well regarded for his Pass Pro and has the frame that could kick in to OG. The positional flexibility that he brings makes up for some stiffness in his stance for the Giants and they take him.
42.) Denver Broncos-Trevon Moehrig-S
The Broncos continue to help their defense by adding Moehrig to their back end in replacement of Justin Simmons. Moehrig is the best FS available in the draft and excels in the single high coverage where he can play center field and take the deepest man over the middle. Although Moehrig does have a tackling issue, it shouldn’t be a huge issue as the single high safety shouldn’t be making tackles
43.) Atlanta Falcons-Tyson Campbell-CB
Falcons decide to double dip at corner because the cupboard is bare right now. They take one half of the Georgia duo that is turning heads at the moment and go for Tyson Campbell. Campbell is a bit longer and can put more size on his frame with fewer weaknesses. Campbell needs to produce a bit more in the next level but his perceived lack of stats could be due to QBs throwing away from him in college.
44.) San Francisco 49rs-Eric Stokes-CB
The Niners are in a similar situation with their CBs as Atlanta except a bit worse as there are none under contract for next year. They take the other half of the Georgia duo, Eric Stokes. Stokes has a similar experience and coverage qualities as Campbell but has iffy ball playing skills and is an inch shorter and a step slower.
45.) Jacksonville via MIN-Asante Samuel Jr.-CB
Jacksonville sees CBs go back to back and decide to grab one to replace DJ Hayden. Asante Samuel is a fantastic off the ball cover man and has NFL lineage that should provide him some guidance going forward. Samuel Jr is undersized and will likely struggle in press but if he winds up in the slot or playing in a zone scheme he should do well.
46.) New England Patriots- Brevin Jordan-TE
New England loves their TEs and pick up another athletic guy to fill the position with Jordan. Jordan is a natural athlete who likes to get down and dirty in the trenches when asked. The route tree is very much in question for Jordan and will likely have to be developed.
47.) Detroit Lions- Jay Tufele-DT
The Lions run a hybrid defense similar to the Patriots due to Matt Patricia, in those successful hybrid defenses there is usually DTs that can shade in the 1 and 3 techs. Jay Tufele can be that DT for the Lions having filled a similar role at USC. Tufele has a problem with consistency from rep to rep which does worry me but with proper coaching it could be stomped out.
48.) Chicago Bears-Kyle Trask-QB
The Bears filled their biggest need on the OL and still had a highly rated QB fall into their laps in the 2nd round. Without many other glaring needs on their roster to fill they take Trask with the thought that he sits behind Foles through the rest of his contract. Trask is very raw as a prospect and just got his first taste of starting at the QB position ever while at Florida. If he can develop behind the starter he could turn into a good but not great QB.
49.) Tennessee Titans-Derion Kendrick-CB
Kendrick is new to playing CB, he’s only been playing there for two years, but is incredibly gifted. His ball skills are top tier and man coverage is sticky but he will have to learn proper technique for coverage on double moves and get better at zone coverage to develop into a game changer at the next level.
50.) Cleveland Browns-Nick Bolton-LB
Bolton is a thumping old school LB who blitzes well and plays downhill getting to the ball. The Browns could fit him in at WLB or MLB and he could start throughout the season and will energize the side. The largest drawback to Bolton’s game is that he lacks fluidity, once he is headed to a gap or engages a lineman he gets stuck in it.
51.) Philadelphia Eagles-Chris Olave-WR
Olave is a fluid route runner who is able to run a nearly full tree right off the bat. His athleticism isn’t terrifying any defenses but Olave is a crafty WR who should get going right away. The Eagles can place him into the slot and let him take advantage of the space created by Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor
52.) Seattle Seahawks-Paulson Adebo-CB
The Seahawks use their first draft pick of the 2021 draft to upgrade their secondary by taking the west coast CB Adebo. Adebo is a prototypical outside corner and has the length that Pete Caroll loves combined with solid cover technique and pressing ability. Although he can get lost in zone or washed out in the middle of the field
53.) Miami Dolphins-Najee Harris-RB
During this selection, Miami moves on from Matt Breida and fills a need at RB. Harris will be in the same backfield as Tua once again and will have to prove that he can continue to be a productive runner without the gaps that an Alabama offensive line is capable of creating
54.) Indianapolis Colts-Amon-Ra St. Brown-WR
The Colts got their QB in the first so they give him someone to throw to in the second. Brown is 6’1” with good size and speed, although the route running is question this combination of Size, Speed, and Separation is hard to ignore.
55.) Baltimore Ravens-Patrick Jones II-EDGE
Without a ton of WR names that jump off the board at the moment, Baltimore decides to stash some talent at edge rusher with Patrick Jones II. Jones has moments where he looks like an athletic sack artist and others where he looks pedestrian. If Baltimore can coach him up to come up with secondary pass rushing moves and winning more contested match ups he could be a good pickup.
56.) Arizona Cardinals- Israel Mukuamu-CB
The board does not fall well for the Cards as there was a surge of CBs taken in the second rounds and they end up reaching for one of their bigger needs with Mukuamu. However, they do get an athletic 6’4” SEC starter for their troubles.
57.) Las Vegas Raiders-Chazz Surratt-LB
Chazz Surratt is even a perfect LB name and has the attitude to fit, Surratt is seen flying around the field on tape. Surratt converted from QB in college and is new to the position so he’ll bring to the field and different football perspective on defense as well which is unique. Although the downside to Surratt’s game is over pursuit and over running the play, if the D coordinator can teach the guy some control he can be really productive.
58.) LA Rams-Jalen Mayfield-OT
The Rams were one pick away from Surratt who would’ve fit fantastically into their system but instead come away with a tackle to protect Jared Goff and take over for Whitworth. Initially Mayfield will likely kick inside to guard but after a year or two of experience in the NFL should be able to protect on the edge, this transition is perfect as he struggled in college on the edge so it would mitigate one of his largest weakness at the moment.
59.) Buffalo Bills-Josh Myers-IOL
Josh Myers played C for the offensive lines which protected Justin Fields cleanly and helped JK Dobbins break out. For a Center he is mobile but doesn’t exhibit extraordinary finishing ability or football IQ. However, he should fight for a starting spot due to his pulling ability next to Mitch Morse in Buffalo
60.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jordan Davis-NT
Jordan Davis is the typical 2 gap huge nose tackle that modern defenses undervalue but sit at the heart of a good 3-4. Davis has the size and ability to command double teams while stuffing the run. However, he can be inconsistent and has film that shows him as easy to move, coaches will likely hammer on the basics of leverage to correct. Also his move provides depth for Vita Vea and cover for Suh leaving
61.) Green Bay Packers-Jaylen Twyman-DT
Now that Rodgers is happy the Pack can get to work on retooling the defense starting with Twyman. Twyman is a 3 tech which specializes in solid pass rushing and could be perfect for the move to DE in a 3-4. Although Twyman has issues in the run game, mainly being washed out at times, he would be taking less double teams and working against a guards outside shoulder.
62.) Kansas City Chiefs-Kadarius Toney-WR
Andy Reid and co. get another wideout who plays more like a weapon and will likely utilize him in an incredibly fluid way. Also, Toney could take the pressure off of Tyreek Hill in the return game as well.
63.) New Orleans Saints-Aidan Hutchinson-Edge
A 4-3 DE with good tape and average athleticism, could provide good depth at the 5 technique behind Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport.
64.) Pittsburgh Steelers-Daniel Faalele-OL
An absolutely MASSIVE OL measuring in at 6’8” and 400 pounds, Faalele can move that weight well enough to play tackle but likely projects better to guard. If he can prove that he can play the edge with good technique then he could be an athletic freak and a steal but if he has to kick inside he should be able to manhandle DTs.

pro football focus picks against the spread video

Daily free NFL picks, tips, predictions and game analysis from expert handicappers. Live Betting odds, lines and daily game day trends cover every pro football game Seattle’s much-improved defense — ranked No. 1 against the run, per Pro Football Focus — will offer more resistance against San Francisco’s ground game than Arizona did last week. Andre ... Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Brett Carlsen) NFL Playoff Predictions & Picks Against the Spread for Wild Card Weekend. As NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off, our picks and predictions take a look at how we see a fascinating weekend of matchups shaping up. By. Ben Rolfe. Published. January 9, 2021. What's in this article? Click to show. With the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs upon us, let’s take a look at our picks and predictions for ... NFL picks against the spread for the first round of the playoffs. Home-field advantage has been anything but in the opening round of the NFL playoffs. Since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 ... The latest football news, analysis, and rankings from PFF. Featuring player grades, rankings and stats for the NFL, fantasy football, and NFL Draft. In the 2019 season, he went 58-39 on against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500. He enters the 2021 Super Bowl red-hot, going 22-12-2 in his last 36 against ... Winning and losing is always the main focus when it comes to placing football bets, but with the Super Bowl, it’s just as much about “having fun.” Most bettors will let it all hang out on Super Bowl Sunday with a ton of prop bets. Win, lose or draw, it’s ok to have a good time once a year. Check out Loot’s favorite Super Bowl LV prop bets . Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Bets. by Dan Jamison ... NFL Week 16 predictions: NYT’s picks against the spread. By Benjamin Hoffman. The New York Times Dec 24, 2020 at 12:25 PM . Advertisement. The NFL playoff picture should come into sharp focus ... Conference Championship NFL Picks Against the Spread. By Chris Amberley in NFL Football — January 21, 2021 5 :00 ... straight games with their starting quarterbacks under center and were all among the top-six highest graded offenses by Pro Football Focus. That should mean plenty of scoring in both games, which is exactly what football fans are looking for. Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker. Read ...

pro football focus picks against the spread top

Week 7 NFL Picks INSIDE THE NFL SHOWTIME - YouTube

Brandon Marshall, Ray Lewis, and Phil Simms give their picks for Eagles-Cowboys, Seahawks-Ravens and tell you if the Jets will cover the spread as +9.5 point... 2019 NFL Week 13 Spread Picks. ... (NFL WEEK 13 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD 2019) The GOAT House. Loading ... Pro Football Focus 9,351 views. 1:54:45. Zack (13-2) looks to continue his success and John (6-7-2) looks to move above 50% in his picks on. the year. - Make sure to give us your top 5 picks of the ... With a quarter of the season in the books, Jason McIntyre's feeling confident heading into Week 5. Check out his picks against the spread for every game on the pro football schedule this week. Brock Page Productions provides sports content, opinions, and information on YouTube. We offer free sports pick videos on this platform, along with paid premium sports picks on my website, http ... The best coverage in the NFL means fantasy football tips, rumors, buzz, predictions, NFL debates and the best NFL Draft coverage in the business. Great Sports Handicapper Cowboy Boom (36-22-1 ATS 2014 Regular Season) comes to you every week with his top NFL Pro Football Weekly point spread picks. His t... NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 16 from Vegas: Kelly Stewart visits Golden Nugget Race & Sports Book Director Aaron Kessler to go over current NFL betting... Hub is 10-2 against the spread! Can he keep it rolling in week 5? Each week Hub Arkush will choose 3 top match ups, and give you his pick for that game. This... Will Brinson is joined by Ryan Wilson, John Breech and Sean Wagner-McGough to give their early analysis on Week 14 lines across the NFL. The guys discuss Cow...

NFL picks against the spread for the first round of ... - MSN

pro football focus picks against the spread

pro football focus picks against the spread - win

Trey Lance versus Zach Wilson